Thread: Play for the bounce... if only we had unlimited trades again

Originally Posted by clester

Ok, maybe we make it today. I think the relief rally will continue through Labor day. Markets usually go against trend around holidays. Expectations for economic numbers are low, so any positive signs could help rally. Sentiment is very negative, so that's a positive. We need the EU to be quiet.

The problems will start again when congress gets back and in the news again. Probably a good time to sell.

IMO.

I agree that the holiday is making this a tough call. We could see whatever happens this week, reverse next week.

As far as sentiment goes, we were actually very close to a sell signal in last week's sentiment survey. We had one into the middle of the trading day last Thursday. If it wasn't for the big negative reversal on Thursday (when we took the survey) we would have got it (sell signal). I think if we took the survey on Wed or Fri of last week instead, we would have got it. Today's strength would probably also put the bull / bear ratio well over the 1 to 1 sell signal.

The Rydex Cash Flow Ratio "sentiment" is still very bearish, however.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

I agree that the holiday is making this a tough call. We could see whatever happens this week, reverse next week.

As far as sentiment goes, we were actually very close to a sell signal in last week's sentiment survey. We had one into the middle of the trading day last Thursday. If it wasn't for the big negative reversal on Thursday (when we took the survey) we would have got it (sell signal). I think if we took the survey on Wed or Fri of last week instead, we would have got it. Today's strength would probably also put the bull / bear ratio well over the 1 to 1 sell signal.

The Rydex Cash Flow Ratio "sentiment" is still very bearish, however.

So are the talking heads. Seems most folks here are nit in stocks either.

I hate how this two trade thing has to play inot my thinking. I jumped in and we have had a nice bounce. I am looking for an exit. I would like to ride to Thursday or Friday but if I bail to G by Wednesday (31st of August) I don't waste a September trade. What a horrible way to have to work this system we are stuck with.

I agree fundsurfer. You used to make great trades when we had unlimited. (I'm sure you still do). We are at the Point where we fail in this rally or its off to the races. I would like to hold till next week.

We made a new near term high and that has started a new trend. It's a long way down to make a new lower low. So, I expect a little pull back and then make a new near term high above 1210. I will stay with the trade until we make a new lower low, I think, but I may lock in gains and get back in after pull back when we get new trades on Sept 1.

I am thinking maybe getting out cob Wednesday like fundsurfer suggested and get back in on pullback in Sept. Especially if we rally more. Just hate to use up trades

Originally Posted by FundSurfer

I hate how this two trade thing has to play inot my thinking. I jumped in and we have had a nice bounce. I am looking for an exit. I would like to ride to Thursday or Friday but if I bail to G by Wednesday (31st of August) I don't waste a September trade. What a horrible way to have to work this system we are stuck with.

Have you decided?

I think the bears are getting frustrated. They have tried to sell this morning but are losing their advantage. We could have more short covering or just buying. We have lots of room up to the 50 dma. That's my next target.

I would like to hold at least through Friday. I heard we may get a negative print on jobs Friday though ( low expectations are good) and I could save a trade if I exit tomorrow. When Obama speaks it seems the market goes down but maybe next week will be different.

Anybody surprised consumer confidence is low? It is at the level of last crash of April/may 09. We bounced up from there.

Will we bounce off this sell off today? I think so. We'll see.

Originally Posted by clester

Have you decided?

I'll probably decide on Wednesday morning. I have to admit that I'm leaning toward the sidelines. There are too many things that could rattle the markets right now and cause a selloff - Euro troubles, congressmen spouting battle plans, Syria, oil, another hurricane, etc...

Like the saying goes...stay away till October.

Originally Posted by clester

.... You used to make great trades when we had unlimited. (I'm sure you still do)....

I quit posting my moves for several reasons: 1. I travel and do not always have the luxury of being able to post my moves to the tracker. I missed posting a bunch of moves to the tracker which causes problems trying to get the tracker lined back up with my actual position. I keep my own spreadsheet anyway. 2. I pay for a service that I follow mostly, so out of respect for that service I don't post. I say mostly cause I still try to take advantage of certain setups I see. 3. This board is watched by the the TSP Board. I'm still ticked. I don't think they pay much attention anymore but they have in the past mined this message board for information that then got used against us. That isn't this messageboard's fault, but it does stick in the back of my mind.

Besides, you've done really well too. Just cause I don't post to the tracker does not mean that I don't pay attention. After all, I kept the tracker by hand for a long time. I'm very thankful that it eventually got it's own online widget. It was tough to keep track of the 50 or 60 that I tracked. Now the number is over 200 and growing.

Originally Posted by FundSurfer

After all, I kept the tracker by hand for a long time. I'm very thankful that it eventually got it's own online widget. It was tough to keep track of the 50 or 60 that I tracked. Now the number is over 200 and growing.

Awe, the good old days............... There use to be some really good "debates" here didn't there?