Thread: 10 Month Modified SMA Method (M-SMA)

My tracking, based on the 9/15 prices keeps the 10 M-SMA Method in the F-fund until our next check on the 30th.

Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues

My tracking, based on the 9/15 prices keeps the 10 M-SMA Method in the F-fund until our next check on the 30th.

Thanks for keeping everyone posted, RMI. Do you use the tool to allocate your TSP funds?

I just stumbled on this thread and found the spreadsheet. The latest entry in the spreadsheet appears to be in mid-July, but with a typo. The entry was 13.6938, actual G fund value was 13.6958 for Jul 15th, on a Friday. The rest of the fund values were correct on that date. The rest of the columns (below it) were the same as of mid-July values. Could you confirm the typo? Probably won't make a dent in the moving average calculations, but...

I'm going to plug the rest of the numbers in since mid-July and keep track of it myself. I think there is some merit to this approach. I was able to eek out nearly 10% gain since Jan, but there was too much worries. The work of reading and dissecting the news and world events, and predicting the market behavior based on various TA method is time consuming and troublesome and I could only get half right, IMO.

Originally Posted by david.alan.williams

Whew! This 2nd job is wearing me OUT! Sorry I've been away for a while and I miss not talking to all of you.

Well, as you might remember, after creating the M-SMA, I was asked to try and put some extra safeguards into the M-SMA system. One of the safeguards was to move us into a safe fund if a drop of around 2.8% -3% occured; even though we might still be above the M-SMA. I decided to add that protection in January and the backtest data looked good. (21% average per year, no negative years, and only one single digit year since 2003) This became version 3a or v3a. Currently at -6.58%

Even though the backtest data looked fine, we are really getting whiplashed in 2011 so I have decided to removed that safeguard (place the system back the way it was) and will now post version 3b or v3b. Version 3b or v3b is backtest as follows: 20.30% average per year, no negative years, and only 2 years in single digits. Currently at +7.95%.


I will change my signature block in a moment after this post hits.

Hi David, thanks for creating such a fine piece of work for the TSP community. I really appreciate it.

Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues

According to my tracking, it should be in the F-fund as of COB 7/29.

I don't know what happened to David, I guess he is busy. I can post the changes, I just don't have access to the tracker.

Hey RMI, my chart shows the system still in S as of COB 7/29 and not going to F until COB 8/15. I show the system yearly return as of 9/15 at -5.02% We may need to compare values we put in for each bi-monthly input.

Originally Posted by akpackfan

Hey RMI, my chart shows the system still in S as of COB 7/29 and not going to F until COB 8/15. I show the system yearly return as of 9/15 at -5.02% We may need to compare values we put in for each bi-monthly input.

What spreadsheet did you start with?

I will check my spreadsheet to make sure there isn't anything personal, then upload it later...

I downloaded the newest version then plugged in the numbers for the months it didn't have in it.

Showing -3.84% as of COB 22 Sept. Maybe we can go into the green before the end of the year. Not feeling too badly about the system being -3.84% considering it could be A LOT worse.

That's exactly what I'm showing for a system return. Good to know that I'm keeping track correctly.

Originally Posted by akpackfan

That's exactly what I'm showing for a system return. Good to know that I'm keeping track correctly.

I guess it depends on which days price you use in the spreadsheet. When Dave uploads a version with current prices, I will compare to see where I am different.

Here's the spreadsheet as of 30 Sept 2011. I'm starting to get the feeling that we will be in the F Fund until after the elections but maybe we can get back the 4.7% before 31 December.

14 October Mid-Month checkpoint has the system 100% F Fund. We would need to see about another 6% gain in the C Fund and about another 10% gain in the S and I funds before the system will move us out of the F Fund.

Now I know we don't talk politics here (Rep/Dem) and I'm not trying to start anything but I believe the economy will continue to improve, maybe even greatly, between now and the 2012 elections. I believe that large corporations and small business believe we have a great chance (better than 60/40) to change presidents to either Romney, Cain, or Hillary Clinton. (Yes I believe Clinton would easily win over Obama, but it wouldn't surprise me if Obama decides not to run and Hillary is the Democratic nominee.) In any case, I believe that the large and small business sense a change in the wind, for the better, reguardless of which of the 3 wins. I know I'm optimistic.

Have a great weekend!