Thread: 10 Month Modified SMA Method (M-SMA)

Looks like todays gains will probably keep the system on a buy S fund unless Monday is a big down day...... Yesterdays close put it on a sell S and buy F.......

Originally Posted by akpackfan

Looks like todays gains will probably keep the system on a buy S fund unless Monday is a big down day...... Yesterdays close put it on a sell S and buy F.......

Yup!

I am concerned as the 4 March date approaches. The "system" doesn't know it's coming but I do. LOL

I haven't make up my mind yet as to whether and go to F or G to protect my retirement funds (against the system) or not. Hard Decision.

Honestly I don't see that day as being a market mover. I'd follow the system. Although you could get out and still have an IFT to get back in soon after.....

Well, February is over and the M-SMA system finished the month at 5.81%and 69th (Tie) on the tracker and is ahead of schedule to reach 20% for the year.

The current signal for 1March - 15March is unchanged; "BUY S" 100%.

The F, C, S, and I funds finished the month above the 10mo. Modified Simple Moving Average.

I'll be holding my breath if the government doesn't pass the budget or an extension.

Here is a trend I saw on the spreadsheet:

Mid-January C and S funds finished UP
End-January C and S funds finished DOWN
Mid-February C and S funds finished UP
End-February C and S funds finished DOWN

The I Fund always finished each 2 week span UP

Dangerous Dave...

Originally Posted by Beavis

I used the idea that all of the military members that contribute to TSP all make their deposits on the 1st and 15th (or the preceeding day if that one is weekend/holiday).

I only have one deposit each month on the 2nd according to my statements. Is there something I am missing here???

Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues

I only have one deposit each month on the 2nd according to my statements. Is there something I am missing here???

I'm really not sure for the full-time military. I would think that if you are signed up for, lets say 10%, that 10% would be pulled out of your 1st and 15th of the month checks and placed in TSP.

james#### posted some stuff about this awhile back, something about the first 'payday' being a 1/2 'advance' on your monthly salary, maybe that's why it only goes in one time per, when you actually get 'paid'.

I am pretty sure that the TSP deposit is like any allotment and is taken out and paid monthly as we are paid on monthly basis; even though we are personally paid 2x.

Originally Posted by akpackfan

Looks like todays gains will probably keep the system on a buy S fund unless Monday is a big down day...... Yesterdays close put it on a sell S and buy F.......

Well, since today was a "big down day" I was wondering (since I just got here and haven't moved anything to match this method) if I should leave everything where I have it (G-5,F-5,S-40,C-25,I-25) and see what happens for the 15th move -or- move it all to S now.

Thoughts?

I had help creating this method and it's posted here for anyone to evaluate and try. To answer your question, I'd probably sit tight as you are and continue watching things daily. This would give you more time to truly decide which method you'd like to use. I'd take a hard look at I_T's premium service as well. He's doing very well and he's a great guy. I'm not trying to run you off from this method but I know it has more risk than I-T's system even though it has a backtested good track record. I believe in the system, for myself and the risk I'm willing to assume, but there is risk if the market goes south within a couple of days after the 1st or the 15th of the month checkpoint.

D

Originally Posted by david.alan.williams

I had help creating this method and it's posted here for anyone to evaluate and try. To answer your question, I'd probably sit tight as you are and continue watching things daily. This would give you more time to truly decide which method you'd like to use. I'd take a hard look at I_T's premium service as well. He's doing very well and he's a great guy.

Thanks for the advice and the method, quite interesting and simple (which I like).

I have thought about the premium services, but I just don't have the cash laying around for monthly service yet... too bad we can't pay out of TSP... lol

Again, thanks to all for this method !