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Thread: Watching the Banks

  1. #1

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    Default Watching the Banks

    KRE looks to be completing a base pattern here. Will it break out? When this whole thing started going down in 2007, we all said we'd watch the banks for guidance.

    Attachment 7929


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  3. #2

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    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    I don't consider this action in the regionals bullish here. Take a look at the volume, this has all the makings of a blow off top.

    Attachment 8030

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  5. #3

    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    Nice call on the breakout. What would a sell-off in the small banks mean to the market in the short-term? Obviously they benefited from today's announcement. Are you thinking things will return to normal - small banks give back recent gains, big banks recoup losses, or something else?

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  7. #4

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    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    The CEO of ING Direct had a good argument today about loan modifications.

    Today's move probably was some kind of unwinding because if you look at XLF, it got hammered today on huge volume. Haven't looked at any options activity, but I'm guessing there was some big action in the way of hedging strategies are happening here because nobody knows what this Obama plan exactly entails.

    Regionals are more important than the big banks IMO. We already know the big banks aren't going away any time soon as long as there is that line in the sand. This market has been on eggshells since the VIX stayed below 20 for some 7 trading days, so I can't say the big banks getting hammered is any surprise to me here. Yes, I think this is a blow off top in the regionals and no way am I a buyer here. The Philly Bank Index has a huge 25 week trading range and meanwhile the S&P was up around 14% during that time period (to its recent top). That alone is a good divergence worth noting.

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  9. #5

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    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    Doesn't look like wall street cares too much for this new plan to loan money to main street banks. KRE diverging again on XLF as the TBTF's satiate for more risk. This is not the kind of action you want to see on this ETF during big up days for the general market.


    Attachment 8152

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  11. #6

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    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    The banks continue to give us warning signs. MACD rolling over below the zero line, low volume rally out of a bearish wedge, and good volume today on the swing high dump below the 50 DMA.

    Attachment 8495

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  13. #7

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    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    A look at the banks give us an indecisive message going forward. However, no matter how bullish the KRE looks, buying pressure seems to be diminishing. In my opinion, these charts are both bearish. KRE could be a bull trap.

    Attachment 8608

    XLF still has good resistance ahead and appears overbought right here after what I believe to be a blowoff top. Last time I felt we had a blowoff top in XLF was in late January, just as the market 'corrected'.

    Attachment 8609

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  15. #8

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    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    It is amazing what liquidity can do to a market. Citi went over a billion shares two days in a row again. I doubt anyone is buying off of fundamentals either. XLF looks majorly overbought here. Will this resistance break hold?

    I don't like that long term declining MACD either.

    Attachment 8644

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  17. #9

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    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    XLF looks to be blowing off here. KRE fought it off earlier in the year and continued to grind higher, but the top looks more promising in XLF this time around. I know the aura of this thread has been bearish the past month or so, but the distribution in this market has been obvious. Markets will try to suck in all available bears before finally turning down. This market is a complete drunken circus.

    Attachment 8819
    Last edited by Bullitt; 03-29-2010 at 07:53 PM.


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  19. #10

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    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    In case you still believe the propaganda being pasted on the front page by our apparatchiks, look no further than the profits being made at the big banks. Not only did GS have a perfect quarter, but so did BAC, JPM and (sources say) C. Here are 4 companies that were on their knees begging for forgiveness (and a loan from the fed at .1%) a little over a year ago. We have been completely sold down the river.

    A drive down any main shopping strip yields vacant buildings and parking lots with weeds growing in the cracks. Oh, but don't worry, the bull will save us. There isn't any real wealth in this world, it's a facade of credit and slight of hand tricks. The media continues to brainwash the public over the recent market intraday CRASH last week by blaming it on fat fingers, HFT, and now a trader who 'had a big short position in the futures market'.

    Meanwhile, the distribution of shares from professional crooks to the unknowing public is nearly complete as evidenced by 8 of the last 17 trading days in most majors being distribution days; not to mention overly bullish sentiment surveys and PC ratios. Have no fear as long as the AD line keeps going higher. It's working master.

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  21. #11

    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    You go bullitt. scary stuff but right on. they need carbon trading to go full steam to elongate the farce. not sure what the masters will do with themselves once they got it All and everyone else is eating dirt and grass. maybe theyll be bored to death and lose their minds.
    I like TSPTalk and I think most people here are well-intentioned but if I followed their advice, I'd be hunkered down in my basement with a thousand cans of tuna fish.

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  23. #12

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    Default Re: Watching the Banks

    Amen Bullitt and when the music stops guess who won't have a chair to sit in. America already is brainwashed.
    “Most men and women will grow up to love their servitude and will never dream of revolution.” - Huxley’s Brave New World

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