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Thread: Bonds

  1. #1

    Default Bonds

    Any reason to think iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond ETF ( AGG) shouldn't continue to provide a 6% return?


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  3. #2

    Default Re: Bonds

    The theory would be, if the economy improves, interest rates would move higher, which would be bad for bonds. But the question is whether the economy improves and interest rates go higher.

    The Fed said rates aren't going anywhere anytime soon, so perhaps bonds can keep chugging along. They made about 6% during the 0% interest rate years after the financial crisis, but yields weren't this low.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  5. #3

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    Default Re: Bonds

    First significant move in the 10 Year since June when yields have been largely trickling lower. Partially explains the drop in gold as the carry trade forced selling of the physical metal.

    10yr.JPG

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  7. #4

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    Default Re: Bonds

    Breakdown of TLT = higher yields. Note that gold is also dropping, not rising. Markets are baking in a strong 2021.

    tlt.jpg

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  9. #5

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    Default Re: Bonds

    Yields making a move lower. TLT big break higher of 50 DMA weighing on financials right now.

    This doesn't look like a one day move.

    tlt4433.JPG

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  11. #6

    Default Re: Bonds

    Can't figure that one out. Strong economic data sends yields lower... much lower? I don't get it. Anyone?
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  13. #7

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    Default Re: Bonds

    Another positive week for bonds with TLT holding above a 50DMA that has turned up.

    Case can be made for a bullish mini inverse H&S. Clear skies until two gaps at 146-148, then 200DMA at 149.

    tlt23.png

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  15. #8

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    Default Re: Bonds

    Halfway there, TLT sitting on 145 now.

    Weimar like inflation and bonds yields rising to 5%? All nonsense. I'm firmly in the camp that deflation is the bigger threat and it may be an impossible predicament to avoid.

    Bonds are a diversifier. Anyone that has increased their allocation to stocks based on the general idea that bonds are going to collapse has only increased their risk.

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  17. #9

    Default Re: Bonds

    Michael Burry must have had a bad week.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  19. #10

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    Default Re: Bonds

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Michael Burry must have had a bad week.
    Latest holdings as of March 31 so they could have changed since then. If he's still in TBT, then he took a loss of around 6-7% in his 300,000 TBT shares this week. I have a feeling he increased his bet the way he's been talking though.

    His calls in TBT were equal to around $55M at the time (amount not shown at link below), but there aren't details beyond that.

    burry.JPG

    He also had $171M worth of puts on TLT as of 3/31. I'd imagine those had a strike price below $136. So, yeah, he probably had a bad week.

    https://fintel.io/i/scion-asset-management-llc

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  21. #11

    Default Re: Bonds

    Ouch. Plus he has a bunch of TMV.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #12

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    Default Re: Bonds

    TLT: Failed H&S with right shoulder breaking out today has massive bullish implications with a measured move to around the 180 level. Smart money is starting to price in "transitory" inflation. I wouldn't want to be holding TBT here, or ever.

    tempsnip.png

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