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Thread: Bonds

  1. #13

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    Default Re: Bonds

    Interesting take on things from MS and JPM.

    As Morgan Stanley's derivatives strategist Chris Metli notes, CTAs - those mindless trend-followers who just ride on momentum waves until they crash - are still short bonds and at current yields have to buy $95bn notional of TY-equivalent duration over the next week, which as Morgan Stanley says "could continue the bond rally and put pressure on stocks as equity investors fear the bond market knows something they don’t about future growth prospects.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ct...morgan-stanley

    JPMorgan says that "momentum traders such as CTAs, retail investors and pension funds have likely been behind the recent bond rally," instead of "tactical institutional bond investors." The rally on prices saw yields decline to levels only seen during the pandemic, but JPM forecasts a rebound. "The decline in bond yields in recent weeks does not signal a change in the medium-term fundamental picture, which in our mind is a picture of strong growth, continued inflation surprises and of a shift to central bank tapering towards the end of the year."

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  3. #14

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    Default Re: Bonds

    Golden cross in bonds is a sign of a bull market. With yields overseas at zero or negative, US bonds are the only yielding game in town.

    bndgolden1.JPG

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  5. #15

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    Default Re: Bonds

    Large H&S forming in the 30 year. A break and measured move lower would be disastrous. We'd be looking for 2012 for support in the lowest forecast.

    Two things:

    1. Yields are low but even lower overseas. 30 year at 2% (where we are now) is a psychological technical area that should bring in buyers. 2% just sounds better than anything in the 1% range despite not really being much better.
    2. Long term H&S patterns have notoriously been reversed during the decades long bull run.

    30yr bond.png

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  7. #16

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    Default Re: Bonds

    All that inflation talk and look what we have. 30-Year back below 2%.

    Welcome back 50 DMA!

    tlt444.png

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  9. #17

    Default Re: Bonds

    As GDP estimates fall again.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #18

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    Default Re: Bonds

    TLT broke out higher yesterday, currently at 152. Golden cross still alive = bullish bonds.


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  13. #19

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    Default Re: Bonds

    Meanwhile, everyone out there saying yields have nowhere to go but up.

    brekd.png

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  15. #20

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    Default Re: Bonds

    It's been a long term series of higher lows in the 10-year and that's going to be a tough trend to change. The H&S pattern targets the 120 level which would be around a 3% yield. With the debt levels today so much higher compared to just 3 years ago, is anything over 2% even possible?

    bondslt.JPG

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  17. #21

    Default Re: Bonds

    The 30 year has an ugly bear flag on it, but then I noticed several over the years that, after a brief breakdown in a couple, went right back up. 2017 - 2018 was the one actual breakdown, but it survived the long term uptrend.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

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  19. #22

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    Default Re: Bonds

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    The 30 year has an ugly bear flag on it, but then I noticed several over the years that, after a brief breakdown in a couple, went right back up. 2017 - 2018 was the one actual breakdown, but it survived the long term uptrend.

    Tom (or Forumites),

    Is there a 'volume' stat to these bond fund charts? And, if the volume is dumping what does that likely mean.

    I have never really looked at bonds before. They were just a safe haven that had some return. With inflation I think it could turn over with equities.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  21. #23

    Default Re: Bonds

    No. i checked and stockcharts doesn't show volume for this bond.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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