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Thread: anyone feels like we're being setup?

  1. #1

    Default anyone feels like we're being setup?

    Anyone feels like a big down move is coming? I mean everything pointing to it, low vix, havent had a correction in years, low volume...Am I overthinking it here?


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  3. Default Re: anyone feels like we're being setup?

    Quote Originally Posted by law87 View Post
    Anyone feels like a big down move is coming? I mean everything pointing to it, low vix, havent had a correction in years, low volume...Am I overthinking it here?
    Haaha. I just saw this, and 7+ months in the future itís still going strong.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

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  5. #3

    Join Date
    Feb 2012
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    Default Re: anyone feels like we're being setup?

    I feel like a big down move is coming every time I move to equities (especially in January). And, of late, I get the feeling it will steadily climb when Iím on the sidelines.

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  7. #4

    Default Re: anyone feels like we're being setup?

    Oh, a big down move is definitely coming. The only question is when? If you can time that one you are better than most of us here. All I know is when I get scared out of the market it tends to be the wrong move. It pays to do the opposite of what I do. That being said, I don't plan on getting out in the next couple of days. Will have to wait and see on next week.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
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    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  9. #5

    Default Re: anyone feels like we're being setup?

    I just finished setting up m TSP/IRA for liquidation over the next 15 years..My broker feels very strongly about the markets remaining high with positive growth..I set up my annuity withdrawals based on his projections...I should still have 50% remaining in 15 years....I feel good about it and now I can reap the profits I've made over the past years...I put all my estate into a trust and YES..I'm spending my TSP on myself (being a single man with no family) and going to enjoy some finer things in life while I still can..It's the name of the game isn't it?..I will be spending more time in Colorado in the summer and California for the winter..since both places will be booming with their Pot industry exploding...Maybe I'll step on any single cell low life that seems to think the pot business is unhealthy and a farce, for kicks.
    A wise man speaks when he has something to say...A FOOL speaks when he just has to say something

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  11. #6

    Default Re: anyone feels like we're being setup?

    Don't see any threat, except the Fed's rate hike. But even the economists discounted it being the threat.
    Got Beach???

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  13. #7

    Join Date
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    292

    Default Re: anyone feels like we're being setup?

    Any big run up like this will see a correction. We are all reaping the benefits of the bull but the question will always be, WHEN will the correction/drop come? Will a gov't shut down trigger a sell off or? Though businesses seems to be doing well, a lot of this is speculation which is normal... history repeats itself... we saw this back in the 80's, 90's and again in the 2000's. Remember the exuberance in the 1990's? Many people throwing their money into stocks with the new online trading? Most of them lost tons of money just trying to ride the wave without realizing a wave that big crashes at the end. It came in March, tax season, and everyone suddenly had to pay short term capital gains taxes on all that trading... ooops! I don't want to be the negative nanny here but this run up has gone on long enough and I tend to get very cautious after a while. I like and trust slow and steady.. long term thinking.

    I usually don't watch day to day... I make a monthly move/non move of my TSP account and that has worked great over the years. I'm now keeping closer tabs as I believe the correction is coming soon and my wife's IRA is all in equities too. JMTC

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  15. #8

    Default Re: anyone feels like we're being setup?

    what the heck is going on with the market today?????????????
    AH52

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  17. #9

    Default Re: anyone feels like we're being setup?

    Quote Originally Posted by badgerland View Post
    what the heck is going on with the market today?????????????
    Another big drop in the dollar, although there doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason whether stocks care about that or not (except the I-fund, of course).

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.


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  19. #10

    Join Date
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    Default Re: anyone feels like we're being setup?

    I've heard for a while that when large caps outperform small caps, it's the final stage of a bull run. In the past couple weeks it seems that SPY has been outperforming IWM. Is this a sign or..? I'm currently on that Birch mode
    I trade based on volume + price action. Price action alone only tells half the story.

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  21. #11

    Default Re: anyone feels like we're being setup?

    Quote Originally Posted by sniper View Post
    I've heard for a while that when large caps outperform small caps, it's the final stage of a bull run. In the past couple weeks it seems that SPY has been outperforming IWM. Is this a sign or..? I'm currently on that Birch mode
    I noticed the imbalance too about the large caps, but didn't know about the "final stage" stuff. I'm still in the market 100% though.
    Got Beach???

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  23. #12

    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    292

    Default Re: anyone feels like we're being setup?

    Was wondering abut the large cap vs small cap issue. Usually the S Fund tends to be more volatile than the C Fund but the C Fund has been outperforming the S Fund over the past year. Heck, the I Fund has been the best performer since Jan 1, 2017. Go figure. Even an advanced AI would implode trying to make sense of this market.

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