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Thread: Short Term Outlook

  1. #1

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    Default Short Term Outlook

    The Kingdom of TSP

    Tea Leaves, Tarot Cards, and Trend Charts

    CHARTS

    StockChart.com: S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX)
    Link ---> http://tinyurl.com/6a2eu

    StockChart.com: SmCap 600 iShr (IJR)

    Link ---> http://tinyurl.com/bx4uc

    StockChart.com: EAFE iShr (EFA)

    Link ---> http://tinyurl.com/exho2

    MarketWatch.com: Currencies

    Link ---> http://tinyurl.com/cp5d2

    StockChart.com: Lehman Aggregate Bond Fund iShr (AGG)

    Link ---> http://tinyurl.com/b3b7p

    CARDS

    StockCharts.com: Market Summary

    Link ---> http://tinyurl.com/4d9kq


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  3. #2

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    10-31-05. AM 9:30-9:35 S&P opens with gap 1198 to 1203. Breaks out of trading range resistance of 1200. Appears firm. Pro: Awaiting to see if break out holds. Con: beware of bull traps.

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  5. #3

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    Spaf,

    I think you are going to stay plenty busy during your first couple of years in the retirement game - we obviously need your helpful service. The ride up on this next bull leg should be glorious but with many bull traps and head fakes - but with plenty of potential to exercise outperformance gains. I certainly enjoy your perspective.

    Dennis

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  7. #4

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    I just posted NNuut that I might be getting a slight change of heart for a short period....this Nov is really a dark dark horse...

    We're due for a correction , I wonder if we get the .25% interest rate change or will it be .5%!!!

    May be playing around the S fund for a while....good luck with it all....

    :^
    The Technician (escapades at times as Carnac)

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  9. #5

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    Charts and Technical Analysis

    (Short Term to Long Term)

    Reading the Market

    The Dow Theory



    [Excerpt] The Dow theory has been around for almost 100 years, yet even in today's volatile and technology-driven markets, the basic components of Dow theory still remain valid. Developed by Charles Dow, refined by William Hamilton and articulated by Robert Rhea, the Dow theory addresses not only technical analysis and price action, but also market philosophy. Many of the ideas and comments put forth by Dow and Hamilton became axioms of Wall Street. While there are those who may think that it is different this time, a read through The Dow Theory will attest that the stock market behaves the same today as it did almost 100 years ago.

    RE:http://www.stockcharts.com/education...owtheory1.html

    Rgds, and be careful! Spaf


    PS: In the recent days the attached chart of the S&P 500, illustrates The Dow Theory principles; identifying the primary market movements, bullish or bearish. We have come off accumulation lows and are now approaching a confirmation of a bullish trend in the market.

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  11. #6

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    Short Term

    November 3, 2005

    The S&P closed out at 1220. This was 10 points under the prior peak of 1230. The 1st stage of a bullish primary movement has been underway. However the 2nd stage of confirmation; passing 1230 awaits

    Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

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  13. #7

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    Short Term

    November 4, 2005

    The S&P closed out at 1220. [Hey, I said that yesterday!]The October jobs report was a disappointment. Buyers had to get some good Pepto to get the bull out of the barn.

    We are still 10 points under the prior peak of 1230, and still in the 1st stage of a bullish primary movement.

    The daily candlestick for Nov. 4 was a doji dragonfly. A doji occurs when the opening and closing price are the same.The dragonfly is a doji where the opening and closing price occur near the top of the trading range. This is a reversal signal after a down-trend - control has been shifted from sellers back to the buyers.

    Rgds, and be careful! Spaf




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  15. #8

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    Thanks for the above info spaf.

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  17. #9

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    Can't argue with your plots there Spaf....looks like a break out for a short period that could extend for a bit....

    I didn't get that strong downer I was looking for here this past week.....we did get that set at 1168....even thought I get some numbers around 1265 or so, I will be surprised if we break the 1245 level on the S&P....I think the end of year will just be down upon us....

    Keep a clear head and a quick finger....o there are bears amongst us!!!

    :dude:
    The Technician (escapades at times as Carnac)


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  19. #10

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    Short Term

    November 09, 2005

    We haven't reached 1230 on the S&P, close,but not a firm confirmation of a bullish primary movement. 1220 seems to bea consolidation point.

    Is it up:} or down:{ ? :?

    The economy is resilient, and we are in a seasonal good period.

    The P-SAR is bullish, along with the RSI, MACD and ROC. Thursday the market will have news on imports and trade, otherwise the week is sort of neutral. However terrorist actions are taking a toll.

    Oil remains ok, at under $60

    I use short term in the reference of two weeks.

    In the past two weeks the returns for C, S, And I funds have been positive.

    IMHO:
    Fundamentals (economy), and indicators are trending bullish, at present.

    Thats my 2 cents! Rgds and be careful! Spaf

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  21. #11

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    I think that thursday will be down and a rally will either come friday and into next week or start the week after. I think you will be surprised to see how far the next rally will take us. Im just looking to buy in low again after selling high. Market has been holding for 5 or 6 days about the same numbers. That scares me, I might not get a chance to buy in low.
    "Auferre trucidare rapere falsis nominis imperium, atque ubi solitudinem faciunt pacem appellant."

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  23. #12

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    Spaf wrote:
    Short Term

    November 09, 2005

    We haven't reached 1230 on the S&P, close,but not a firm confirmation of a bullish primary movement. 1220 seems to bea consolidation point.

    Spaf, I think the goal would be 1226....we hit it yesterday and I think 1230 is a far reach.....

    Looking for a retrenchment starting real soon....like today or tomorrow....

    :dude:
    The Technician (escapades at times as Carnac)

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