Thread: This is for TSPTalk concerning the Sentiment Survey...

i would say the odds of 2014 being a down year would be 50/50

LoL...I would say the same thing from a personal standpoint but, I'm trying to look at it from the system standpoint.


I mean what if you could erase those 2 down years or turn them into a positive year simply by changing the fund you're invested in based on 1 more criteria...Wouldn't you want to do it?


I know I would!!!

the SS has a great track record...I would sign up for next year even if you think it will be negative, you could use it as a contrarian to the contrarian play...or sit next year out and hop on in 2015...waiting is no fun though...the returns have been stellar, take the good with the bad...many men have failed trying to get happier than happy

I'm not knocking the track record at all...in fact I'm praising it...but I have to ask the question...Is it possible, the system could have generated a return on those down years just by adding another rule to the mix?

I only ask cause Tom previously mentioned he had thought about tweaking the system...and I also agree with Tom from that same post..."If it ain't broke...Don't fix it!"

This is really just a friendly conversation of "what if" more than anything else...


Geez....so many people on here are so touchy and defensive about thier leaders and their systems...

But Cheers to you just the same!

Originally Posted by Chulke

So anyway...I was thinking and looking through the system's historical yearly returns and was wondering if you noticed the every 3rd year pattern...which I'm sure you have...where every 3rd year has been a negative year for the system (i.e. 2008 -6.14% & 2011 -10.27%) and with that, one can only assume that the system will have a negative year next year for 2014. So I ask you have you seen any historical evidence to prove why this is? And have you back tested the system to the dates of inception with each of the funds and had other negative years you don't show? Just wondering?

Hey Chulke -

Thanks for the feedback. The -6.14% year was due to the stock funds being down 37% to 42% in '08. Ugly year, so I consider -6% a huge victory for the system.

The -10.27% loss also came during a year when s-fund was negative, but still the system unperformed. It's going to happen, and as I mentioned in that post, I hate to make too many changes because of the long term success.

The F-fund is a good possibility, but like the current situation, the F-fund does not always go up when stocks are down. In the long-run - probably a good addition, however.

Thanks again for your input. (can you still see the content of that thread?)

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Hey Chulke -

Thanks again for your input. (can you still see the content of that thread?)

Why? Did you delete me?

LOL - I hope I deleted everybody (who was supposed to be deleted).

Originally Posted by tsptalk

(can you still see the content of that thread?)

I can't -- though I didn't try accessing it earlier today before you added the $ at the beginning of the thread name. Just an FYI, I should not have access as I haven't paid for it.

I can still view it...I just can't post anything in that thread...I even logged out and logged back in...I'm not complaining though...just stating a fact! LoL!

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Hey Chulke -

Thanks for the feedback. The -6.14% year was due to the stock funds being down 37% to 42% in '08. Ugly year, so I consider -6% a huge victory for the system.

The -10.27% loss also came during a year when s-fund was negative, but still the system unperformed. It's going to happen, and as I mentioned in that post, I hate to make too many changes because of the long term success.

The F-fund is a good possibility, but like the current situation, the F-fund does not always go up when stocks are down. In the long-run - probably a good addition, however.

Thanks again for your input. (can you still see the content of that thread?)

Should you point out that the -6% loss was after the fact? If you were actually following it at the time, you lost over 38%. The rest of us can't go back and change our returns after an "update"........

The current system was down 6%. Yes. The old system changed after 2008 was down 38%. I don't hide that. It's posted on every page that shows that return. It was the only year affected. Assumed they knew.