I wonder if the 2007-2008 bear market, and to some degree, the dot com bubble burst, had a permanent impact on our readers pysche. That will change one day, but for now bearishness has been relentlessly high despite the big gains.
The system has only made 2 ITF's in 2013. In 2012 there were 7 IFTs. 4 in 2011. 12 IFT's in 2010. In 2008 there were 0 IFT's before the new rules were implemented. The new rules made a big difference but I'd have to go back and find the old spreadsheets to see the actual number.
Yes, new rules were put in place and posted for a long time. If you know them, great. You can follow them. But please keep it to yourself. Thanks.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Haha. Sorry. Honestly, like I said, I followed the system in 2011 - which is why I know the rules pretty well. I haven't checked in so long, I didn't realize you had taken the rules down. I'll keep quiet from now on. I was just asking because I might consider signing up, and was curious to hear your thoughts on how it might save its followers from potential catastrophes.
Is $18 / month too much? I think so.
that depends almost entirely on what the $18 gets you. if it is beer and smokes then i have no problem spending that per day, and it's never enough. but if it's to secure my financial future and a life of ease in retirement for a month then it just doesn't pencil out here and now because i expect to keep working until i die. but everyone is entitled to their own horizon.
100g
I'm too cheap to pay a dollar, but you have to understand there are VERY few people who invest the amount of time I do, so I can easily understand why Tom would need to monetize what he does. On a slow week, I invest 10 hours, on a busy week I'll crank out 12-hour days of backtesting and I'll be dammed if anyone thinks I'd give that away for free. Many people want a free meal, but few are willing to invest the effort to create the meal for themselves, Tom is the latter.
If I was unable to manage my own money, Tom would be one of the few here I would trust to manage my life's savings and I wouldn't lose any sleep over that decision. Frankly, that is the biggest complement I could pay anyone...
Retired, 50G/50C_ BLOG: Stats for April, 2024 Stats
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
When the Ebbchart system started out, I couldn't have received more complaints. Apparently I was evil! What happened? 2000 people signed up within 3 months. But it's fleeting. Some people will pay. Many won't. I get it.
Another thing. In January, TSP Talk will be 10 years old. I never charged for anything I did here - except to charge our premium service authors a percentage of their sales. I've given away thousands, if not tens of thousands of dollar worth of travel mugs, T-shirts, pens, planners, hats, etc., over the years. Paid tens of thousands for advertising. Pay 5 figures a year for servers, services, software, etc. (the forum software and mobile software are not free.) All I can say is, aren't you glad I am willing to pay for things? $18 is too much? That's fine. I get it. Is +187% too much? There's still a lot of free stiff here for the rest of you, and I appreciate your contributions here on the forum. You pay me that way by giving content for others to come read.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
As for charging now, I think the problem is people get used to getting stuff for free and then can't get used to paying for it. It's a lot like when a new resteraunt opens up. When it starts out the food is great, quantaties large, and prices cheap. If it succeeds it makes a name for itself and it's time to monetize the investment. You have two choices: 1) pay for what you've come to enjoy. 2) find another resteraunt.
I think there is plenty of free stuff on TSPTalk if you don't wan't to pay for SS. I hope no one here would be so petty as to sabotage the survey. Then Tom would have to lock it down for only premium service subscribers. We wouldn't want that. It's something else to skew the results.
Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
Past Returns: 2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%
Tom, I ran the numbers from 2006 to yesterday and got the following results:
2006 to 2012 8/20/13 G Fund 25.64% 26.97% F Fund 50.03% 45.38% C Fund 33.02% 56.27% S Fund 49.58% 82.37% I Fund 18.99% 31.67% SS 127.26% 166.33%
The numbers match except for the SS. The result is still outstanding, but different. Any idea about the discrepency. I used these numbers off the sentiment page:
2006 27.96%
2007 21.32%
2008 -6.14%
2009 6.62%
2010 35.16%
2011 -10.27%
2012 20.62%
8/20/13 17.19%
Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
Past Returns: 2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
EFA (I Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
BND (F Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
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Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes |
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