Thread: Sentiment Survey

Originally Posted by clester

It has a good track record but I don't know if anyone follows its signal for every trade. Its a good tool though. I like to use my own sense (anecdotal evidence) of bullish/bearish.

I agree with you, I don't use it for every trade either, but it is doing better than me, so maybe I should.

Yes, the percentage results will still be posted. That was a promise I want to keep since it is the poll responders that make it work, and that info is valuable enough. The system signals won't and email alerts will only go out to subscribers.

I know, I know. No one wants to pay for anything. No on wants wants to click on ads. They want free stuff. Been there, done that every time we start a new service. Seems the country is heading that way so I shouldn't be surprised. But, I doubt any of you are working for free, and I can't afford to either.

This business pays my bills. I voluntarily gave up a GS 13 job to take on TSP Talk full time, which is a full time job, and to avoid being on welfare, yes, I have to charge for some services. You'd be surprised at the expenses to keep a website this size running smoothly. Let's start with $700 a month for servers. OK, that's my story and excuse.

Now, do you realize the Sentiment Survey System is up 187% since I started it in 2006. The best fund during that time? S-fund is up 82%. Just say'in.

Thru:	2006-2013 8/20/13

Sentiment System	+187.13%
G Fund:	+26.97%
F Fund:	+45.39%
C Fund:	+56.27%
S Fund:	+82.36%
I Fund:	+31.67%

I'll explain more about what "TSP Talk Plus" will include, and it's not just the survey signals. Is it worth a few bucks a month? That will be up to you.

I did'nt realize that you had given up a GS -13 job for the site. That was very gusty.....

Wow, that Sentiment Survey System results since 2006 are something else !

Thank you Tom for this site... It is a great resource!

Originally Posted by clester

It has a good track record but I don't know if anyone follows its signal for every trade. Its a good tool though. I like to use my own sense (anecdotal evidence) of bullish/bearish.

Agree. If I only did follow it signal for signal. +187%. I'm not that smart. It's really hard to blindly follow.

Originally Posted by Dutchy

I did'nt realize that you had given up a GS -13 job for the site. That was very gusty.....

Yup. When ebbchart and Trader Fred went premium, the site got really busy. I could barley keep up with Ebb making IFT's 2 or 3 times a week (before the limits). I was getting in trouble at work for being on the forum during work hours (because there were ads and I was making money). Even got suspended for a week. I had to make a decision and decided to make the move. I think I was a step 9 or 10, can't remember. My wife still works for the gov't so we still have insurance.

So what bought the subject up? I thought the survey was only one of several items used to determine the result.

I think that this site is worth paying for so maybe I will subscribe to the SS, if only as a way to send Tom some money. Although, the price has to be right ;-)

Gee! mob.gifTSPtalk.gif

Here's the problem with price: If I make it too low, the current premium services could lose members, and that would not be my intention and Intrepid and Revshark wouldn't appreciate that. But I will make it much cheaper (-50%) for the current premium service members to discourage them from cancelling.

It will start on Monday, but here's some info: http://www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

i don't think anybody can find any thing wrong with a proven over time +186% return for a few bucks per month. i dare you. also i couldn't walk away from a gs-13 maxxed step unless i really believed in what i was doing and was good at it. or else had me a sugar mama, in which case i'd be doing it fo sho.

not to detract, but i wouldn't sign up for and rigidly follow a pay service even if it was free. because i enjoy matching my vision and roulette strategery against the man's market any day. even if i lose, the freedom is more valuable to me. which probably explains my 2.5% return this year. but i'm ok with that.

the whole key here is what is the price point? a cup of starbucks? show me the money!

I believe Birchtree intends to keep his account thread available for free to the general public. That should be sufficient.

I'm curious, since I didn't start paying attention to my TSP account until 2010, how did the Sentiment Survey manage to avert the heavy losses of 2007-8? I traded my account based on the survey in 2011 - one of it's down years - and was appalled at how it just sat in stocks throughout an entire correction of about 20%.... But barring catastrophic events such as '07-'08, it's almost a buy and hold system.