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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I am shorting this market as of last Friday....may add to that position today.
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Big aaii move to 40% bulls reported this morning; highest in many months. I doubt it can go higher absent an event. But I'm not seeing the catalyst to go lower. Classic contrarian sell signal but...
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    That's 100X my 0.02% gain for 2018.
    A disaster, really....had over 10% in October.
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    When I wrote the post, I wasn't thinking "current events" as in news, but the current events as in the current status of the market. Which is not that good. P/E stretched, slowing growth in China,...
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Or a missed year of losses, like 2018.
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Ummmm, yahhhh, another missed day of gains for me....markets appear to be anticipating something great because, imo, current events do not justify current index price. Someone else will need to come...
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    aaii finally moving, bulls 36+%, highest since early August reading, preceding hard retreat . I am not a buyer. I still say markets to correct again this year and soon.
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    $ moving around between misses and beats, but not leaving equities. Yet. I have an IFT to burn, but more inclined to wait for much better pricing than today. I think it's coming (i.e., 2700 or...
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Unlike long or short, a neutral position cannot make money so it will not dominate for much longer. A few more days and the VIX should pick up as earnings misses accumulate. Right now, I believe...
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    aaii moved from bullish to dead heat neutral (ie, contrarian, 20 to 31% bullish). This is a big move but isn't informative as to what's next...real mixed bag here, trade talks fading, but Don is...
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    One of the wierdest reactions I can recall. A weak, partial deal, in return for nothing, giving up the long anticipated 5% tariff surcharge, produces a +1.7% SPY, which fades to 1.0% at the close....
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    I'm not a believer in this bounce, although the ultra low bull reading, 20%,on today's aaii can't be ignored..such a contrarian # typically reverses hard, which would mean an even larger bounce on...
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Bloomberg fake trade news duped many, but not me....I sold nonTSP equity positions at today's intraday peak in expectation of a sharp gap down between now and 10/15. Later.
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Thus far, it's following the usual pattern of measures, countermeasures, and testing of such by pre-announcements without details...trade talks currently breaking down...apparently headed towards...
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Weak close today, 10/7/19 which, I believe, relates to failing optimisn in any near term trade progress. If I'm right and the markets woof a sudden couple percent gap down, we'll know by next...
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    Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I'm not with CH on this one....I see failure late in the week.
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    No buying for me here...looks like a technical bounce so far, not more....trade deal or no, China is slowing, so is job growth here. Gonna sit this one out. May miss a 10% trade deal if it...
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Anyone hoping for a dead cat bounce, consider that most like you will likely sell into it, and the volume isn't there (100mm SPY traded, when the recent max, last December or so, was 260+ mm), so I...
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    And so it twas, dropping sharply to 2,870, which is holding for now ....should float there till Friday's BOL report....but remember last year....was that dark or what? In addition to jobs and any...
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    SPY 50EMA is burnt toast..., next stop, the 200EMA @ 2,870 or so....not even thinking about buying anything right now.
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Reduced TSP to Zero equities, 90G, 10F. Expecting a huge drop after a job# slight miss. Nothing good here. Tried some knife catching trades in my Roth...got stopped out in 20 minutes with a 1% loss...
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    VIX lost it's 50EMA, and has stayed above it since my last post, contrary to what I expected. Today, SPY deadcatted a bounce midway through its recent 2850-2950 range. I think its a head fake, and...
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Tightroping the VIX 50 EMA for 2nd day...sold I fund, holding 50% equities.
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Well, one of the key factors I watch coming off a volatlity period is the VIX 50EMA, which was breached yesterday. When this happens, it often signals pending declines EXCEPT, when it is only a few...
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    Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    No point being coy...money is flying out of bonds and bond ETFs...the FED meets next Wednesday, and is expected to announce another (completely unwarranted, IMO) rate cut. If Powell then provides...
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