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The probability of rate hikes continuing into Dec 2022 are still high so it doesn't look like the are monitoring, but going full force.

Right now there's a 48% chance the Fed Funds rate will be...

Fed sees ‘more restrictive’ policy as likely if inflation fails to come down, minutes say



https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/06/fed-minutes-june-2022.html

Big test for small caps at the 20-day EMAs - Russell 2000 (IWM) and DWCPF (S-fund).

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2022/070622e.gif

Correction or change of direction? 200-day EMA getting tested.

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2022/070622d.gif

The early action sees the dollar up again - oil is down to $98, yields are up slightly and stocks chopping between gains and losses.

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2022/070622a.gif


The...

You should have gotten the gain or loss for that entire period just based on the prices on June 1, which accounted for that gain / loss for those down days. In other words, the June 1 prices...

.... and look at the dollar making new highs after breaking out above the cup and handle. This is continuing to put pressure on commodities. Oil is down almost $5 a barrel, gold, silver, corn,...

Look at that Bond ETF make its way above the 50-day EMA for the first time all year. This is what our F-fund tracks. There's more resistance above but we may finally be seeing the door open to the...

Raising interest rates is the wrong solution to the inflation problem, analyst says



https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/05/hiking-interest-rates-the-wrong-solution-to-inflation-problem-analyst.html

A technical recession looks certain.


Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreases

On July 1, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2022 is -2.1 percent, down...

It's holding up pretty well. New month, new quarter, new money I suppose. Next week will be a test, however.

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2022/070122d.gif


Closing update:
...

I'd be surprised if this rally holds into the close before 3-day weekend...

5-minute chart:

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2022/070122c.gif

Today's attachments don't seem to be working. :(

The trend is down and any buying is going against the trend, but I can't help wonder if the S&P wanted to test that 50-day EMA, fill that gap up near 4000, but the pre-holiday reversal took over this...

The June 2022 results are in and here are the top 5 returns. :banana:

http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tally/2022/0622_winners.gif

Congratulations! Great job.

If you are interested, please...

Recession is almost official:

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Decreases

On June 30, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.0 percent, down from 0.3...

I'm on the tapatalk app and testing this link...

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talk-news-etc-/39037-new-site-information-post674181.html

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk


Nope: Didn't...

James mentioned a way in another thread so I'll point you there...

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talk-news-etc-/39037-new-site-information-2.html#post674181

Fed’s preferred inflation measure rose 4.7% in May, around multi-decade highs

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/30/feds-preferred-inflation-measure-rose-4point7percent-in-may-near-40-year-high.html

Staying with the gaps theme, another gap was opened with this morning's sell off.

There was a very small full open gap near 3700, but because the S&P closed closer to 3675 on the 17th, that can be...

Never a dull moment. They keep you guessing. :D

For those looking, I did move the free G fund moves posts to a new thread:

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-transfer-limits/39206-tsp-limits-plus-free-g-fund-moves.html

It's still early but so far the bottom of that gap is holding.

https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/2022/062922b.gif

Just minutes after the opening bell and it's kind of a moment of truth for the C and S funds as they fill their open gaps from last Friday. It could hold or we'll probably see a test of the recent...

Sorry for the late post. I was busy with the Plus premium service strategies this morning.

So a 1% opening bell rally has now turned into a 1% loss a couple of hours later. Gaps on both sides of...