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  1. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
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    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning (again)

    For those who are curious, the previous 63 Decembers closed down 16 times for an average loss of -2.50%

    From this November's 2022 closing price, we are now below this...
  2. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    Damm me, reposting this a 3rd time, the Avg. Loss was calculated incorrectly. The revised numbers are significantly stronger (to the downside) compared to the previous chart, sry...
  3. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    IFT CoB Today, 25G/75C (From previous 40G/60C)

    That leaves 1 IFT left to buy more if we go lower from here.
  4. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    True, it's not accurate to say Jan is the worst month, since all years start with Jan and most years are bullish. To get an accurate assessment, I'd need to do this chart 12 times, each starting at...
  5. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    From the previous 63 years, we have the yearly low sorted by Month.

    Jan has the worst odds, 25 of 63 times (or 40%), the yearly low fell within this month, but the average loss is...
  6. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    There's nothing unusual to report. This week's trading days 3-7 are very average. On the Day of the week chart, the last 55 day's 38% win ratio is below the 21-year 54% average. Also,...
  7. Replies
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    374

    Re: 21 Years of investing

    In light of today's volatile pre-market conditions, I'm posting this chart early instead of waiting till Sunday.

    21 years of stats show the stronger the gap, the stronger the probability of the...
  8. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    After a strong up day, do we get to hold onto those gains or should we exit?

    Here's a part 2 for "How often the index closed up within a percentage range." This time we've measured...
  9. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Small update, I hate to re-post a chart, but I hadn't noticed on the last day of Nov we closed the month above the 9 month SMA.

    56392

    56393
  10. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    That makes since, my browser is at 125% so I never noticed :embarrest:
  11. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Sure, are you talking about the google sheets data rows/columns?
  12. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Thanks, it's a bit difficult to quantify and I don't have an engine for back-testing. During those 21 years, If we took the best 180 days > 2% and worst 229 days < -2% this is how these days look....
  13. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    What an amazing finish for November, closing the month 5.38% and closing at the highs, finishing with a 3.10% daily close.

    From the previous 21 years, we can see SPX closed up...
  14. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning (3rd post today)

    As we close November out, we now have December and the joy this fabled month brings us. If you look to the far right bottom corner we can see the 21-year all months...
  15. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Well, as we finish out the month, I'm in a holding pattern with one remaining IFT which will likely go unused. On Tuesday I tried to look for reasons to enter, but could not find a compelling enough...
  16. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Thanks Eric, I love to sort and crunch these numbers, it's somewhat relaxing for me. This Tuesday marked the 3rd concurrent close down. In the previous 21 years, this type of event happened about 8%...
  17. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    The good news, if you punch in an IFT close to the noon deadline, you have a great chance of getting a closing price in the same direction as the noon deadline.

    With a 91% win...
  18. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    Not much to report for the Day of the Week stats. Wednesdays & Thursdays have been the the poorest performers, so perhaps it's time for them to show a rebound or at least equalize...
  19. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good afternoon

    The Gap history is largely unchanged, for all days combined, I've decided to go back a full 55 days (instead of 21) to match the Day of the week chart. Of the last 11 Fridays that...
  20. Replies
    2
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    374

    Re: 21 Years of investing

    Happy Sunday

    Here are some observations from the previous 21 years for the S&P 500 Index.

    From the 5285 trading sessions, the baseline win ratio is 54% (bottom right corner in pic).

    66%...
  21. Replies
    5,300
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    1,003,353

    Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Gee, what I would give to re-live that market again, only to know the outcome :)
  22. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    The daily stats are sometimes useful (for me) to determine what edge I can go for when using an IFT. I think the gap stats are better than the day of the week. Aside from that I'd rather look out to...
  23. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Thanks, those are all great points, and ya know the holiday weeks always mess with my statistical mojo.

    Last 3 of NOV vs. 1st 3 of DEC. It doesn't look all that great to me, in 2021 the last 3 of...
  24. Thread: JTH's Account Talk

    by JTH
    Replies
    9,032
    Views
    1,103,577

    Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    I have nothing useful to report, so I'll spam my thread. When the last 250 Mondays closed down, the next day closed up 59% of the time.

    56279
  25. Replies
    5,300
    Views
    1,003,353

    Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Maybe it's just me, volume seemed low today /s
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