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  1. Thread: Dow Theory

    by Bullitt
    Replies
    67
    Views
    27,863

    Re: Dow Theory

    My interpretation is we had a non-confirmation bear market signal from Transports as it reached 14,500, but Industrials did not confirm the move lower.

    Transports reversed and made a new...
  2. Thread: Bitcoin

    by Bullitt
    Replies
    737
    Views
    138,880

    Re: Bitcoin

    New bitcoin ETF based off futures? Think about USO and UNG which also hold futures.

    I'm seeing many comparisons to this being like the inauguration of the GLD ETF for the price of gold. GLD...
  3. Replies
    66
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    25,034

    Re: Watching the Banks

    New all time high for XLF.
  4. Replies
    2,450
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    193,598

    Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    IT swing low looking very possible today.
  5. Replies
    3
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    137

    Re: Stocks Climb on Bank Earnings

    After JPM got hit yesterday, I was planning on my BAC holdings being down 3% today since the implied volatility was +/-3% at yesterday's close. Instead, I'm pleasantly surprised. That's rare. ...
  6. Replies
    2
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    147

    Re: Pay periods 2022

    https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/leave-administration/fact-sheets/leave-year-beginning-and-ending-dates/
  7. Thread: Energy costs

    by Bullitt
    Replies
    2
    Views
    127

    Re: Energy costs

    Well, I guess if you live in California this isn't a problem anymore since new homes are built without a gas hookup. The sun can keep them warm in the winter.

    How is this happening? The US is...
  8. Replies
    2
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    175

    Re: WRBY - Warby Parker

    Big insider buying at the $49-53 level by D1 Capital Partners to the tune of $65M.

    https://www.linkedin.com/company/d1-capital-partners

    SEC FORM 4
  9. Replies
    2,450
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    193,598

    Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Still a few weeks off in the making, but a break of the downtrend and 10DMA would set up a reverse head and shoulders. Upside would be new highs.

    Positive seasonality is right around the corner...
  10. Replies
    35
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    14,807

    Re: Cycle of Emotions

    I think we're just past denial and very close to fear at this point.
  11. Replies
    15
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    1,309

    Re: Social Security Benefits

    Zero increase in 2009 and 2010 after 2008's 5.8% increase.

    2021: 5.9%
    2020: 1.3%
    2019: 1.6%
    2018: 2.8%
    2017: 2.0%
    2016: 0.3%
    2015: 0%
    2014: 1.7%
  12. Thread: Fed Talk

    by Bullitt
    Replies
    22
    Views
    2,325

    Re: Fed Talk

    The latest regarding inflation and unemployment from today's minutes.



    https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20210922.htm
  13. Replies
    13
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    1,260

    Re: Market News

    Sorry if that post got off topic. To clarify here, there should be incentives for people to maintain a healthy lifestyle. Sure, there are underlying health conditions, but when you pay a flat rate...
  14. Replies
    13
    Views
    1,260

    Re: Market News

    Those cheering the 5.9% increase in cost of living for Social Security need to look at the other side of the coin. Health care will go up at least 5%. If anything else goes up, you're still losing...
  15. Re: Record # of workers quit their jobs in August

    Many of these jobs seeing high "quits" will be automated. It's not a matter of if, but when. The food and dining industry doesn't need servers or waiters. How much time is spent wasted a...
  16. Replies
    333
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    34,299

    Poll: Re: Maricar19 Account Talk

    Any updates on the mix up?
  17. Replies
    1
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    224

    Re: Monthly Jobs Report

    Inflation trade going crazy again. All metals, softs, meats, grains up big. Lumber up over 6%.



    https://www.wsj.com/articles/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-2021-11633641477?
  18. Replies
    2,450
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    193,598

    Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Despite the cycle low being put in, I'm thinking the market is still broken until it can get above 4450. That level would negate another move down. Today's gap is already pulling prices back towards...
  19. Thread: Debt Ceiling

    by Bullitt
    Replies
    10
    Views
    293

    Re: Debt Ceiling

    It's meaningless. The debt ceiling obviously doesn't make decision makers act more prudently with money.

    Get rid of the ceiling and we won't have the annual panicked headlines or risk of shutdown.
  20. Replies
    15,211
    Views
    1,327,042

    Re: Oil Slick Stuff

    Energy companies have been blaming some of it on the "Freeze" in late 2021 spring.

    Nobody on the business end wants to blame it on ESG investing for fear of becoming the next corporate villain.
  21. Replies
    15
    Views
    1,837

    Re: TSP Tax Question

    1. Pay the balloon (from TSP), lock in the lower solar payment for the life of the loan (25 years).
    I like this idea if you plan on staying in the house for a while. Rates are so low right now that...
  22. Replies
    2,450
    Views
    193,598

    Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Strength on Friday usually rolls into Monday.
  23. Re: If L funds rebalance every day, is that daily dollar cost averaging?

    No, it's all relative. When bonds drop, you'll sell C, S, I to buy G or F.
  24. Re: If L funds rebalance every day, is that daily dollar cost averaging?

    You won't know until hindsight, but if you just keep a 100% stock portfolio your expected returns will be higher than a portfolio with bonds. It doesn't guarantee anything, it just means you should...
  25. Replies
    53
    Views
    23,490

    Re: Investor Fear Chart

    Bulls 28.1, Bears 40.7

    Bearishness has not been this high (three weeks now) since October 2020.
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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes