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  1. Replies
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    Re: Federal Fund Rate Cut Probability

    The FED rate is a normal rate. They will not reduce it. In fact, if inflation rears up again they will raise it. They will hold it though a mild to moderate recession.


    We are not headed into...
  2. Re: National Debt isn't going to get any better

    The important word is 'we'.

    We want this crap. The main issue is that each member of 'we' wants different crap and our politicians work deals to buy other crap if they get their crap bought. ...
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    On Returning to the Normal

    Folks, some of you are waiting for these high interest rates to decline. They shouldn't and they likely won't. They are normal interest rates - if not still too low.

    Anyway, Joshua Kennon wrote...
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    Re: National Debt and Deficits

    After data mining the AutoTracker: 7% of us have 20%+ invested in the 'F Fund'

    That ain't showing a lot of confidence. Some (much) of that is because of the return, but a lot of it is because we...
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    Re: National Debt and Deficits

    It is a problem going forward...

    We, as voters, keep voting for more of the same. Treasuries and Gubmint Bonds are now more difficult to sell - hence their interest rates are going up. It really...
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    2023 Has Been Good to Me, But it Jiggered my Allocation

    The niceness of this years markets have jiggered my Allocation enough to warrant notification. This is the current reality:

    Fund Allocation:

    G 31% - It is earning 5%, which is an OK return in...
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    Re: G fund rate? What’s up?

    The G-Fund rate will trail Treasuries and has no direct correlation with home loan rates. Apparently, it is a computed, weighted average of some Treasuries. Many Treasuries still pre-date inflation...
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    Foreseeable Unforeseen Tragedy

    Who could have seen this coming 'Mysterious rise in US Treasury yields perturbs markets', AFP.

    Too damn funny. Unforeseen. Unexpected. WAT

    Yet, they are guessing the following:

    ...
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    Math Is Hard

    It doesn't appear as if the credit rating entities give one whit whether our politicians increase the Federal Gubmints credit limit or not...

    We all knew in our heart of hearts that it really did...
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    I'm Not a Bond Guy, But...

    I'm not a bond investor, but somewhere down the line it will be wise to invest in bonds (F-Fund).

    I think I might understand what an 'inverse yield curve' is now. I found an article mentioning...
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    Re: WorkFE's Account Talk

    We are finally approaching normal markets.

    The C (S&P 500) is a bit hot, but it was lousy last year - so it is behaving normally.
    The G is near/at a normal interest rate - it is not pure dog...
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    Re: Monthly return rate - G

    The F-Fund will continue to decline till the average yield is some margin greater than the FED Funds rate. The AGG yield is currently around 4.75% with an 8.5 year average maturity date. The FED...
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    Re: Monthly return rate - G

    The interest rate for the G-Fund - and, in fact, Social Security Bonds - is set by a weird pension-like formulation. Kinda the way a floating annuity is set. It is not directly set by 'the market'....
  14. Thread: Fed Talk

    by Boghie
    Replies
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    21,864

    Re: Fed Talk

    The actual debt ceiling is like the actual minimum wage - but in reverse:laugh:

    That is, the politicians can play around with whatever numbers they want, but the debt ceiling will be the point at...
  15. Re: Stock Market Pullback is upon us! Get ready for the dump

    Who cares about the debt ceiling?

    Our politicians think they control the situation, but they don't. Even if they - and, they will - get some dumb agreement it will mean nothing. When...
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    Re: The I-fund - 2023

    TommyIV,

    If by 'the banking system' you mean banks that use Federal Treasury bonds as their backstop then understand that there are many NATIONS that use Federal Treasury bonds as their backstop. ...
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    Why, oh Why...

    Why, oh why do we keep seeing HSBC Bank and Credit Suisse in the news anytime there is a bit of bond trouble. Just asking for a friend.

    Maybe that friend, or friends of that friend, or even...
  18. Re: SEC and Justice Department reportedly investigating SVB's collapse, including ins

    Where you gonna go NNuut ;damnit

    Heck, entire countries backstop their currencies on US Treasuries. As interest rates rise the value of those Treasuries drops. That is the beauty of the Bond...
  19. Re: SEC and Justice Department reportedly investigating SVB's collapse, including ins

    Here's what apparently caused the collapse of SVB:

    They bought Treasuries as a funding backstop - they could sell them if needed
    The Federal Government induced inflation through various...
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    Bonds Anyone???

    Not ready to dive into the AGG (F) yet, but there will be a point...

    Because the FED has to yank trillions of inflationary 'Treasury Bucks' out of the system they will keep raising interest rates....
  21. Re: Maxing out TSP, can I still contribute to a Vanguard Roth IRA?

    I think this Investopedia topic "Can I fund a Roth IRA and Contribute to My Employer's Retirement Plan" answers the mail very well...

    I see now where your $30K contribution limit to TSP comes from...
  22. Re: Maxing out TSP, can I still contribute to a Vanguard Roth IRA?

    Chpwolf,

    I think evilanne's response is clear, but to make things simpler:

    Your contributions to either a Traditional (pre-tax) TSP or a 401(k) do not affect your ability to contribute to a...
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    Re: Share Your TSP Balance and Your Age Thread

    Wow, this thread is/was kinda cool. I bet you thought I was slagging since my return sucked for 2022, but it was just an oversight. These are my numbers and projections as of 2022/12/31:

    Age: 59...
  24. Thread: G fund

    by Boghie
    Replies
    7
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    1,155

    Re: G fund

    When you hear the term 'extraordinary measures' emanating from some Treasury Spokeshole it means that they are borrowing from G-Fund assets. They can do this because the assets in the G-Fund are...
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    Re: Skorcher's Account Talk

    Concur;damnit

    But, I guess the chimps won.
    You get what you get.

    Some chimp wanted it so we got it.
    Or, maybe some slug in the Federal Gubmint wanted a brag sheet - See we GIVE you the...
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