Special SKI Report #297
Gold Stock Update Jeffrey M. Kern, Ph.D.
Email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
USERX | historicals
Written Sunday Apr 7, 2024
Published Apr 8, 2024
Current USERX price = 10.93, Up $1.90 cents (21%) since the last report 4 weeks ago.
Introduction (repeated from prior Reports):
I have been using my unique SKI indices
to predict price changes in the precious metals' market for more
than two decades. And my indices continue to mark the critical
points. I have initiated a subscription website since 1/13/06
(yes, Friday the 13th) after having posted free updates for years
at www.321gold.com. SKI is a timing service; although
almost everyone seems to believe that market timing is impossible,
that IS what the SKI indices have done for 36 years.
The SKI indices contain short-term (16-20
trading days), intermediate-term (35-39 trading days), and long-term
(92-96 trading days) indices. A more comprehensive description
of these mathematical indices and their history is found here.
Basically, the indices compare today's price to prices from a
specified prior time period. The name of the index specifies the
time period (e.g., 92-96 index = compare today's price to prices
from 96, 95, 94, 93, and 92 trading days earlier). Although I
use the oldest gold mutual fund, USERX, for analyses, the predictions
are applicable to the broad precious metals' market. I do not
recommend or analyze specific stocks, but my subscribers from
around the world regularly discuss individual issues on our Forum.
In addition to the truly unique SKI indices, I also use "run
patterns" to guesstimate turning points in the precious metals'
market. A "run" refers to a pattern of daily up and
down market closing prices. If the market has 3 consecutive days
of higher closing prices, the run is "3 up". If prices
then decline for 2 consecutive days, the run becomes "3 up
and 2 down". If prices then close higher the next day, the
run changes to "2 down and 1 up". Some people have referred
to run patterns as "worms". A run pattern is only completed
after the direction of closing prices has changed. I have compiled
a listing of every run pattern that has ever occurred and generated
probabilities that the end of the run marks a high or a low, moderated
by the indices themselves. New Material The last public presentation was on Sunday, 3/03/24
when USERX closed on Friday 3/01/24
at 8.70. The conclusion of that update noted that the 92-96 index began to be tested! On Tuesday (2/27/24), USERX declined to 8.68 and fell below 1 of the index’s 5 back prices. On Wednesday (at 8.59) the index fell to below the index. That continued on Thursday at 8.70. Is that an intermediate low in the gold stocks?
When gold stocks continued higher on Monday (3/04/24) at 9.32, there was the distinctive (but non-definitive) likelihood that the gold stocks had indeed formed an intermediate-term low. Hence, we bought that day.
USERX rose to a 16-20 index sell on 3/07/24 (at 9.75) and an accompanying 35-39 index buy on 3/11/24 at USERX 9.86. These 2 index signals suggested (non-definitively) that some sideways behavior was going to occur, but that the gold stocks would experience another rise through that resistance at 9.75-9.86.
We have (non-definitively, yet again) continued to rise once again via that 4-week intermediate-term bottom. Last week there were two more index signals: (1) A 439 buy signal on 4/02/24 at 10.53, and (2) A new 218-222 buy signal on 4/03/24 at USERX 10.76. USERX rose for 7 consecutive days (from 9.85 to 10.76) but that actually wasn’t a typical high because that run pattern didn’t average 2% to the upside (just 1.3%).
It would have been safer to sell (at least some) on that 7-day run higher into two consecutive index signals. But I’ve still held long and was surprised by Friday’s (4/05/24) rise to new highs (at 10.93). There are still two major index signals that have not yet been hit/touched. Those are the 660-664 sell signal and the final signal of the 881-885 index buy signal. We’re looking for another rise or finally some signal that the rise from 2/27/24, 2/28/24, and 2/29/24 had finally given way. The 660-664 and 881-885 indices change each day and are at the 11.65-12.22 and the 12.98-13.98 ranges for this next week.
It’s been a non-definitive rise for this past month! We do now have a number of sell-stops, but nothing appears to be due for next week.
Best wishes, Jeff
If you are interested in following and learning more about the SKI indices, I'll write another Report in three weeks or you can shell out the big bucks for a SKI subscription. Weekly Updates are available by subscribing for a month (or longer if you're wise and cheap enough to want to save money) at my website www.skigoldstocks.com for the princely sum of $30 (for a one month subscription) or more ($240 for an annual subscription). I also provide more frequent intra-week daily messages/alerts at a slightly higher price along with access to our informative Forum. ###  SKI archives
email: jeff@skigoldstocks.com
Jeffrey M. Kern,Ph.D., is an academic psychologist with a specialty in the measurement and prediction of human behavior. The communications provided are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be investment advice or recommendations for specific investment decisions. Dr. Kern is not a registered investment advisor, but is registered as a commodity trading advisor (CTA). The information provided is considered accurate, but cannot be guaranteed. Investments/trading in narrow market segments or gold futures is for individuals willing to accept a higher level of risk for the opportunity of greater returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. His website is www.skigoldstocks.com.
Communications should be sent to: jeff@skigoldstocks.com.
Copyright © 2002-2023 Jeffrey Kern. All Rights Reserved. 321gold Ltd
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