Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 12 of 24

Thread: Home Prices

  1. #1

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    14,685
    Blog Entries
    13

    Default Home Prices

    This article says home prices are still way too high, and should contnue to fall for some time to come.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker...spite-Collapse

    It's worth reading.


  2.  
  3. #2

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    14,685
    Blog Entries
    13

    Default Re: Home Prices

    And here is the REAL meat regarding all those ARMs that are going to be resetting over the next few years.

    Here is a graph of the amount in dollar value of ARM resetting projections on the left, and then, on the right, the amount of anticipated "shock" those ARMs could move up if current projections hold.

    The story where this came from is here:
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/26529207/site...t%7C&par=yahoo

    According to this article, while it may look temporarily like the home mortgage crisis is bottoming out, this is only a slight reprieve and breather, before the big shock waves hit ARM holders in 2010 and 2011.


    If this data is correct, we're in for some real tough times ahead in the real estate market.

  4.  
  5. #3

    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Seattle and Philippines
    Posts
    223

    Default Re: Home Prices

    Interesting data....I've never and would never buy an A.R.M....how often and how many times do A.R.M.'s reset?
    Last edited by mick504; 09-05-2008 at 03:22 AM. Reason: clarity

  6.  
  7. #4

    Default Re: Home Prices

    Quote Originally Posted by mick504 View Post
    Interesting data....I've never and would never buy an A.R.M....
    Not all ARMs are bad--you just have to know what you are buying. PENFED has a 5/5 ARM that looked really tempting when we were buying our house.

  8.  
  9. #5

    Default Re: Home Prices

    ppl seem to only care much about the house prices. Yes, the prices are falling, but the mortgage interest rate's going up. 1% mortgage interest rate increase over 30 years on $100k is equal to about 35k or 35% of the original house purchase price. In 2003, I think the mortgage interest rate was only about 4.5%. Now it's about 6.5% and we all expect the mortgage rate to go up. I'm sure it will go up again to about 10% just like the last time we had the housing bubble burst. If you add up all property tax, house purchase price, and mortgage interest you pay over 30 years, you find out that the total amount of money you spend on house today will be much less than how much you will pay about 10 years later. and if you rent, you lose more.

  10.  
  11. #6

    Default Re: Home Prices

    That is also why i have refinanced this month. Now is the time. We wont see another for 5 to 10 years from now. Good Luck!

  12.  
  13. Default Re: Home Prices

    It looks like we're in that same type of market again, where home prices are starting to fall again. Luckily most people seem to have refinanced over the past couple of years - we definitely did last year with a 10 year ARM. I don't think we'll have the same type of price decline as 2008, since the banks are in a much healthier position. And a much higher percentage of owners used fixed rates rather than the ARMs during the last recession.

    But in the next year or two we should see some nice bargains. While it's tough that mortgage rates are so high, this will be a great environment for cash buyers, especially since it doesn't seem like rents will fall as much as home prices.

  14.  
  15. #8

    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    869
    Blog Entries
    541

    Default Re: Home Prices

    Have home prices peaked? Demand for homes has plummeted with high prices and high interest rates. The only problem is supply is also very low. It is a stalemate between would be buyers and sellers. Both are waiting to see what happens next. Home prices have come off their recent peak yet are still higher than last year. Are we about to see the 'bubble burst'? Or do market bubbles only burst when nobody expects it. Would be buyers looking for a repeat of 2008 will be quick to buy when price come down, but will that mindset keep prices buoyed?

    Anyone have any thoughts to how this will turn out? Bragging rights to whoever is right in 6 months.

    What’s Going On With the Housing Market?
    Last Look Report |TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up
    Chart Patterns | An ETF Trading Primer

    Disclaimer: This is not advice or a recommendation.

  16.  
  17. #9

    Default Re: Home Prices

    I haven't read the article yet, but I would think the rental market could help predict the direction of the housing market. As you mention, higher interest rates make it tough for the average person to get a giant mortgage, but they have to find a place to live. So do the people of the mass influx of migrants from the south. So, landlords will set the rents accordingly and if it stays hot because of demand, there will be enough people with money buying rental properties, whether apartments or houses, to rent out to take advantage of the passive income.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


  18.  
  19. #10

    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    869
    Blog Entries
    541

    Default Re: Home Prices

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    I would think the rental market could help predict the direction of the housing market.
    Apartment Rent Growth Set to Keep Slowing This Year


    Demand for rent is slowing, higher interest rates are cutting the profit margin for landlords, and "nearly half a million new apartment units—the most of any year since 1986—are expected to complete construction by the end of 2023".
    Last Look Report |TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up
    Chart Patterns | An ETF Trading Primer

    Disclaimer: This is not advice or a recommendation.

  20.  
  21. #11

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Upstate NY
    Posts
    3,874
    Blog Entries
    46

    Default Re: Home Prices

    Funny to look back on the beginnings of this thread which began a golden era for home buyers. The most favorable affordability numbers were from 2008 to 2020. Right now is the least affordable time in 40 years to buy a house.

    Screenshot 202yrt.jpg

  22.  
  23. #12

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Upstate NY
    Posts
    3,874
    Blog Entries
    46

    Default Re: Home Prices

    Home prices have an upward bias. How much higher can home prices go with a 30-year mortgage at 7% though?

    bfm2D9_0.jpg


    https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-f...mortgage-rates

  24.  
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
Home Prices
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
Home Prices
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
Home Prices
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
Home Prices
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes