Time for a little cooler?
Some of that sentiment was worked off, but still kind of up there. Sell when the market is going down, buy when it's going up....
fg cnn.JPG
One channel was broken (red) but perhaps another (blue) held...
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
AAII looking promising - bears toeing that 50 buy line. Most bearish since 5 weeks ago.
Bulls: 23.7
Bears: 48.5
Not where the market needs to be right now. I note that it got down to around 45 for June's bottom.
cnnfear.JPG
AAII: 46 Bears to 24.9 Bulls. Less bulls and more bears than all of August, but still not at that 50 Bear Buy level. I'm thinking next week another push lower to 3100 should do it. CNN gauge saw an improvement as it dropped to the upper 40's.
From sentimentrader. Large speculators (hedge funds, trend following alogorithms) are $47B short.
Looks like a good bit of fuel to spark another massive rally like the one off the March low.
sentiment specs.JPG
Wow, so even large speculators are the dumb money. Who the heck is the smart money?
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Generally commercial traders in the market indexes would be 'smart money'. Companies like Black Rock, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, UBS, etc. that are offsetting massive bets or buying futures to maintain their index funds.
But yeah, I hear ya. These guys seem to be as mistake and FOMO bound as everyone else.
The OEX put / call ratios used to be a good smart money indicator (probably still is) but Stockcharts.com no longer posts it for some reason.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12082053026&a=368 209147
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
AAII came in at 55.8% bull vs 24.9% bear.
Last time numbers were this skewed was January 2018, a few weeks before that February 2018 drop.
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