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Thread: Investor Fear Chart

  1. #13

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    When Dumb Money Confidence has been 79% or above since 1999, the S&P 500's returns in the months ahead have tended to be subdued. Even though median returns were negative over the next 2-3 months, the S&P was still positive most of the time, thanks mostly to the initial readings following the 2002 and 2008 bear markets.

    sentiment5.JPG

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  3. #14

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    AAII Bears 47% to Bulls 24%, ratio .51 - Leaning bullish and very near a buy.

    Quad-Opex keeping markets pinned for now.

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  5. #15

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    AAII Bears 49% to Bulls 24%.

    CNN gauge back to neutral bearish, barely.

    fearg.JPG

    Sentiment appears to be cooling by both metrics, which is a good thing.

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  7. #16

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    The BofA bull & bear indicator at 2.3 vs. 1.9 last week. This indicator is an indicative metric only, used as contrarian indicators to identify market extremes (for informational purpose only, not investment advice).
    bbi.JPG

    https://www.isabelnet.com/bofaml-bull-bear-indicator-2/

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  9. #17

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    And bulls just keep disappearing according to AAII. From 34% to start June to 22% to start July.

    Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
    July 2: 22.15% 31.96% 45.89%
    June 25: 24.14% 26.96% 48.90%
    June 18: 24.37% 27.85% 47.78%
    June 11: 34.28% 27.67% 38.05%
    June 4: 34.55% 26.58% 38.87%
    May 28: 33.07% 24.80% 42.13%

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  11. #18

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    From Argus Research:

    The AAII survey shows only 31% bulls and 45% bears. This reminds us of the cyclical bull market from 2003 until 2007. During that bull, AAII got more and more bearish as stocks rose. Individuals started to sense the housing crisis, so the sentiment deterioration was more about the economy and less about the market. Now, individuals see horrible economic stats and large layoffs, which leads to a very bearish survey.


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  13. #19

    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    2003 - mid-2008

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  15. #20

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    Investors Intelligence came in at 57% bulls, 17% bears.

    A bit lopsided, but as they state on their site investorsintelligence.com:

    We don’t necessarily take a contrarian view to the newsletter writers in our survey. A large part of the time our sentiment readings remain neutral. We consider the norm to be 45% bulls, 35% bears and 20% neutral. However, we do pay attention to extreme readings in both bulls and bears and also to historically significant runs of more bulls than bears. To summarize, advisors are only wrong when you get too many of them start thinking the same thing.
    In contrast, this week's AAII came in at 26% bulls, 47% bears. Another week very close to that 50% bear level that gives a contrarian buy signal.

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  17. #21

    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    Yes, the difference between AAII and II is a little confusing. Our TSP Talk survey has been somewhere in between the two.

    https://www.tsptalk.com/sentiment.php
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  19. #22

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    RE: AAII reading of 20% bulls. Sentimentraders's comments below.

    We've touched on the AAII survey several times in recent months, noting how these investors were not buying into the rally. Far from it. In the past, we've looked at the implied demographics of the survey, and it seems pretty clear that they skew heavily to the older end of the population.

    Maybe that's why a massive tech-led rally hasn't excited them as much as rallies in the past. Whatever the reason, such a low level of optimism has rarely been to their benefit.

    Backtests show that the S&P 500 has rallied 93% of the time over the next three months when fewer than 20.5% of respondents considered themselves bullish on the market.

    We've never seen a rally this large, over this long of a period, and still had so few investors consider themselves bullish.

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  21. #23

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    RE: NAAIM

    A note from Argus Research

    This is only the eighth time the NAAIM has reached 100% (we count clusters as one occurrence). About half the time we exceeded 100%, the market saw decent pullbacks in the coming weeks/months; and half the time, the market kept grinding higher as in early and late 2013 and in late 2016.

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  23. #24

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    Doesn't necessarily mean a crash is on the horizon, but sentiment is not in the bargain buyers favor.

    sent.jpg

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