Thread: NAAIM

The number went higher but there are a couple of more bearish managers on the edges. -150 (more than the 100 last week) in the Bearish column and only 125 in the Bullish (down from 200):

Date	NAAIM Number Mean/Average	Bearish	Quart1	Quart2	Quart3	Bullish	Deviation
03/23/2022	52.69	-150	30.00	70.00	100.00	125	65.32
03/16/2022	46.68	-100	0.00	50.00	85.00	200	60.48
03/09/2022	42.58	-200	10.00	50.00	80.00	200	70.96
03/02/2022	30.30	-200	0.00	50.00	75.00	100	72.26
02/23/2022	44.41	-150	0.00	47.00	85.00	200	71.64
02/16/2022	53.49	-200	30.00	65.00	80.00	200	72.38
02/09/2022	66.80	0	37.50	85.00	100.00	121	40.53
02/02/2022	62.54	0	20.00	60.00	90.00	200	49.17
01/26/2022	53.39	-100	0.00	70.00	100.00	200	66.22
01/19/2022	56.73	-125	20.00	75.00	91.25	200	76.22

So there are more bears and less bulls (or more bearish and less bullish overall), but NAAIM went higher. How does that work?

Originally Posted by bmneveu

So there are more bears and less bulls (or more bearish and less bullish overall), but NAAIM went higher. How does that work?

I believe that the change in the number is a reflection not of the finite "number" of managers who are bearish or bullish, it is a reflection of the fact that while the true bears are more bearish and the true bulls are less bullish, the average (see Quartile 2 and 3) are still more bullish than last week?

As you would expect from the market, big jump in the bullish direction. But note the true bulls are less bullish. More hunkered down in the middle which is reflected by the very low deviation:

Date	NAAIM Number Mean/Average	Bearish	Quart1	Quart2	Quart3	Bullish	Deviation
03/30/2022	79.72	40	62.50	80.00	100.00	105	21.67
03/23/2022	52.69	-150	30.00	70.00	100.00	125	65.32
03/16/2022	46.68	-100	0.00	50.00	85.00	200	60.48
03/09/2022	42.58	-200	10.00	50.00	80.00	200	70.96
03/02/2022	30.30	-200	0.00	50.00	75.00	100	72.26
02/23/2022	44.41	-150	0.00	47.00	85.00	200	71.64
02/16/2022	53.49	-200	30.00	65.00	80.00	200	72.38
02/09/2022	66.80	0	37.50	85.00	100.00	121	40.53
02/02/2022	62.54	0	20.00	60.00	90.00	200	49.17
01/26/2022	53.39	-100	0.00	70.00	100.00	200	66.22

NAAIM drops and most managers are in the middle.

Date	NAAIM Number Mean/Average	Bearish	Quart1	Quart2	Quart3	Bullish	Deviation
04/13/2022	63.29	-8	50.00	75.00	86.75	100	31.86
04/06/2022	83.41	22	55.00	80.00	98.94	200	40.35
03/30/2022	79.72	40	62.50	80.00	100.00	105	21.67
03/23/2022	52.69	-150	30.00	70.00	100.00	125	65.32
03/16/2022	46.68	-100	0.00	50.00	85.00	200	60.48
03/09/2022	42.58	-200	10.00	50.00	80.00	200	70.96
03/02/2022	30.30	-200	0.00	50.00	75.00	100	72.26
02/23/2022	44.41	-150	0.00	47.00	85.00	200	71.64
02/16/2022	53.49	-200	30.00	65.00	80.00	200	72.38
02/09/2022	66.80	0	37.50	85.00	100.00	121	40.53

NAAIM number slightly up - mostly from managers moving just slightly to the bullish. Very tight grouping (deviation below 30)

Date	NAAIM Number Mean/Average	Bearish	Quart1	Quart2	Quart3	Bullish	Deviation
04/20/2022	74.05	16	50.00	80.00	93.75	112	28.88
04/13/2022	63.29	-8	50.00	75.00	86.75	100	31.86
04/06/2022	83.41	22	55.00	80.00	98.94	200	40.35
03/30/2022	79.72	40	62.50	80.00	100.00	105	21.67
03/23/2022	52.69	-150	30.00	70.00	100.00	125	65.32
03/16/2022	46.68	-100	0.00	50.00	85.00	200	60.48
03/09/2022	42.58	-200	10.00	50.00	80.00	200	70.96
03/02/2022	30.30	-200	0.00	50.00	75.00	100	72.26
02/23/2022	44.41	-150	0.00	47.00	85.00	200	71.64
02/16/2022	53.49	-200	30.00	65.00	80.00	200	72.38

NAAIM drops significantly but now managers are more spread out in their positions. On the ends, some are fully bulled up (200) (bottom reached?) while those in the bearish column are more shorted (-100)and expecting things to continue.

Date	NAAIM Number Mean/Average	Bearish	Quart1	Quart2	Quart3	Bullish	Deviation
04/27/2022	46.25	-100	5.00	50.00	73.38	200	69.22
04/20/2022	74.05	16	50.00	80.00	93.75	112	28.88
04/13/2022	63.29	-8	50.00	75.00	86.75	100	31.86
04/06/2022	83.41	22	55.00	80.00	98.94	200	40.35
03/30/2022	79.72	40	62.50	80.00	100.00	105	21.67
03/23/2022	52.69	-150	30.00	70.00	100.00	125	65.32
03/16/2022	46.68	-100	0.00	50.00	85.00	200	60.48
03/09/2022	42.58	-200	10.00	50.00	80.00	200	70.96
03/02/2022	30.30	-200	0.00	50.00	75.00	100	72.26
02/23/2022	44.41	-150	0.00	47.00	85.00	200	71.64

Too much noise man. The only number that matters is 46.25.

Bottoms will be found at the low readings when all have given up hope. The March 2020 bottom saw multiple weeks below 30, but the only problem with that is if we're starting a bear market we'll see false signals with every bear market rally. According to sentiment, October 2008 had all the signs of exhaustion, yet markets fell for five more months.

VIX closing the week over 30 and most bearish AAII reading in many years both lean towards to bullish. Again, all bets are off if this is a bear market when bearish readings tend to persist. SPX is not down 20% yet, but Nasdaq is down some 22% from the highs indicating a bear market in tech.

Words from Argus Research today.

The NAAIM Exposure Index has dropped to 46% from 83% three weeks ago, the lowest reading since early March (when it fell to 30%). During corrections, a reading under 50% generally will lead to (at least) a counter-trend rally, if not the mark of a key bottom.

Two weeks in a row under 25 which is contrarian bullish, but picking a bottom is anyone's guess. NAAIM hit 11 at the March 2020 low and never looked back until this recent drawdown.

Continues to drop

Date	NAAIM Number Mean/Average	Bearish	Quart1	Quart2	Quart3	Bullish	Deviation
05/18/2022	19.51	-100	0.00	0.00	50.00	87	44.74
05/11/2022	24.31	-100	0.00	4.00	50.00	200	58.81
05/04/2022	31.76	-70	0.00	20.00	72.50	100	45.33
04/27/2022	46.25	-100	5.00	50.00	73.38	200	69.22
04/20/2022	74.05	16	50.00	80.00	93.75	112	28.88
04/13/2022	63.29	-8	50.00	75.00	86.75	100	31.86
04/06/2022	83.41	22	55.00	80.00	98.94	200	40.35
03/30/2022	79.72	40	62.50	80.00	100.00	105	21.67
03/23/2022	52.69	-150	30.00	70.00	100.00	125	65.32
03/16/2022	46.68	-100	0.00	50.00	85.00	200	60.48

Date	NAAIM Number Mean/Average	Bearish	Quart1	Quart2	Quart3	Bullish	Deviation
06/08/2022	50.00	0	0.02	50.00	93.00	100	43.01
06/01/2022	34.33	-200	0.00	50.00	85.88	100	74.08
05/25/2022	33.19	0	0.00	13.50	66.25	100	35.08
05/18/2022	19.51	-100	0.00	0.00	50.00	87	44.74
05/11/2022	24.31	-100	0.00	4.00	50.00	200	58.81
05/04/2022	31.76	-70	0.00	20.00	72.50	100	45.33
04/27/2022	46.25	-100	5.00	50.00	73.38	200	69.22
04/20/2022	74.05	16	50.00	80.00	93.75	112	28.88
04/13/2022	63.29	-8	50.00	75.00	86.75	100	31.86
04/06/2022	83.41	22	55.00	80.00	98.94	200	40.35