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Thread: NAAIM

  1. #13

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    Default Re: NAAIM

    Research note from Argus today.

    With the latest reading at 104%, the index has now jumped over 100% six times in 2020 and 2021. Four of those events led to small/decent pullbacks in the major indices. During the latest pullback in March, exposure dropped to 49% from 110% in just four weeks. It jumped to 79% in mid-March, fell back to 52% at the end of March, and is once again over 100%.

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  3. #14

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    Default Re: NAAIM

    Research note from Argus Today:

    With the latest reading at 44%, the index has plummeted from a recent overly bullish reading of 104%. That 104% level was the sixth time during 2020 and 2021 that the index rose above 100%. Four of those led to small/decent pullbacks in the major indices. During the latest pullback in March, exposure dropped to 49% from 110% in four weeks. It jumped to 79% during mid-March, fell back to 52% at the end of March, and is now at its lowest level since April 2020.

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  5. #15

    Default Re: NAAIM

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    Research note from Argus Today:
    Rightway Options video continues to point out market breadth is at its lowest point and has been falling for the last few months.

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  7. #16

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    Default Re: NAAIM

    From Mark Arbeter yesterday. This week's NAAIM came in at around 70 again.

    When the index is high (above 90), there is less buying power than when it is low (below 50).

    The NAAIM Exposure Index pulled back over the past week to 71% from 93%. Based on the indicator’s history, this is positive (as the danger zone for the index is above 100%).

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  9. #17

    Default Re: NAAIM

    NAAIM is at 70.57 as of the 18th. lowest it has been in over 6 months. In June 23 it was 70.86.
    Attached Images Attached Images

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  11. #18

    Default Re: NAAIM

    sorry- Correction. lowest number in the last 6 months posted on their front page is the current number. From the chart (you can download from their site) the most bearish response was actually in March and the lowest mean average was in May.


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  13. #19

    Default Re: NAAIM

    but is this an inverse response indicator?

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  15. #20

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    Default Re: NAAIM

    Quote Originally Posted by mmk119 View Post
    but is this an inverse response indicator?
    Yes, same with all sentiment indicators. When everyone is on one side of the boat you want to be on the other. Extreme sentiments matter, the rest is noise.

    Rarely does this indicator go below 40, and that seems to be a good long term buy. Below 60 has worked since March 2020. Over 95-100 is a sign of overheating.

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  17. #21

    Default Re: NAAIM

    thank you

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  19. #22

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    Default Re: NAAIM

    From Mark Arbeter:

    The NAAIM Exposure Index has risen back to 93% from 71% last week. The index is very close to the danger zone that exists above 100%. Small-trader call buying remains elevated while large-trader call buying remains very high. When these things have happened in the past, short-term returns from the S&P 500 were less than average.

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  21. #23

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    Default Re: NAAIM

    Most recent reading is at 77, a 10 point drop from last week. Largely inconclusive and doesn't indicate extremes in either direction. However, back below that 90 level indicates that there is some that "cash on the sidelines".

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  23. #24

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    Default Re: NAAIM

    Currently at 55, lowest since mid-May 2021 when it hit 44. 55 was seen at the September 2020 lows.

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