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Thread: The top must be close...

  1. #1

    Default The top must be close...

    These kind of headlines usually mark at least a short-term top...

    From the NY Times Friday...

    AS WORRIES EBB, SMALL INVESTORS PROPEL MARKETS

    Americans seem to be falling in love with stocks again

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html


    I mentioned 1500 as a potential target for the S&P and it closed today at 1503. 1520 is the top of an intermediate-term trend line. I don't think I can stay in any longer than that - if we make it there.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  3. #2

    Join Date
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    Default Re: The top must be close...

    Once we top out how big will the correction be? How far will we drop. The big problem for us is that we can't react to the market quickly enough and stand to lose a nice chunk of change if we hesitate too long.
    May the force be with us.

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  5. #3

    Join Date
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    Default Re: The top must be close...

    1827 is the top.

    i had a dream so...
    11.80% for 2012, 24.79% for 2013, -5.13% for 2014 , 4.94% for 2015 WTF?, -0.04% for 2016 , 13.09% for 2017======= 8.23% , Moved to Vanguard in 2018

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  7. #4

    Join Date
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    Default Re: The top must be close...

    Quote Originally Posted by rktect1 View Post
    1827 is the top.

    i had a dream so...
    There is no top, just highs and lows... so WHEN is the 1827? Without a date, your dream, is, well...

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  9. #5

    Join Date
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    Default Re: The top must be close...

    If the dollar keeps losing value the top may be much higher than that.



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  11. #6

    Default Re: The top must be close...

    The S&P might be getting close to the top.

    However, congress just agreed to keep spending above the debt ceiling until they can agree on a debt ceiling in the next few months when they get around to it. What does that mean IMO? USD DOWN!!! US credit rating downgraded!!! Both result in the I fund growing. Just my opinion.

    LMBF was off by one month - February is the month of the I Fund.
    100% G Fund COB 13 March 2020

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  13. #7

    Default Re: The top must be close...

    The top is very near because of those headlines Tom mentioned. When the sell off starts and those same folks get scared again and sell then we can start back up. It will take at least 5% IMO. It is the way the market works. I've been a victim of that many times.
    100 G
    RSI - Relative Strength Indicator DMA - day moving average

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  15. #8

    Join Date
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    3,416

    Default Re: The top must be close...

    ILoveTDs,

    If we are in Sovereign Debt trouble than Europe is in collapse. And, we are probably nearing Sovereign Debt trouble. The Smart Black Swan Politicians are posing and preening. Personally, I think our bond market will force sense on our politicians. So I am not ready to fly to safety - and, where would that be. If we have a Sovereign Debt panic is either the G or F funds a safe harbor? Yowser.

    My guess is that late Spring and early Summer will be a normal corrective market. Nothing major. Dumb Money is flowing from dumber investments to a market that has reached 'even'. Dumb Money will carry us up unless our Dumb Moneywise Black Swan Politicians take flight.

    Lots of decisions, eh.

    And, a Black Swan Sovereign Debt Bubble Crash will be horrific for the F Fund. G Funders will be happy, but their money will be at risk.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  17. #9

    Default Re: The top must be close...

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    Once we top out how big will the correction be? How far will we drop.
    By "top" I'm just thinking of a correction to perhaps the bottom of the current rising trading channel. I'm not ready to call a bull market top yet.

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    The big problem for us is that we can't react to the market quickly enough and stand to lose a nice chunk of change if we hesitate too long.
    I have to admit that the 2 IFT limit helped keep me in stocks this month. I had moved 30% to G about a week into Jan as my first IFT so I didn't want to sell and use my last IFT because the seasonality chart for January says we don't want to miss that last week of the month. If I sold earlier I'd be waiting around for that dip that seems to be eluding the market.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


  18.  
  19. #10

    Join Date
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    Default Re: The top must be close...

    fear & greed index at 94, usually when it gets this high the market is soon to pull back

    Fear & Greed Index - Investor Sentiment - CNNMoney

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  21. #11

    Default Re: The top must be close...

    The only thing is...if we're talking about a pullback it may not happen. The market tends to frustrate the most people it can. When we all believe it won't happen is when it will happen.
    100 G
    RSI - Relative Strength Indicator DMA - day moving average

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  23. #12

    Join Date
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    Default Re: The top must be close...

    I think this thing will run till the fat pigeons (uh, I mean Black Swans) take flight in May.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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