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Thread: The top must be close...

  1. #13

    Join Date
    Feb 2011
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    Default Re: The top must be close...

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    I think this thing will run till the fat pigeons (uh, I mean Black Swans) take flight in May.
    because...

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  3. #14

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
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    Default Re: The top must be close...

    1540 would mark a 10% gain from the most recent correction to 1400.

    Most buy & holders are near the point of making money on all contributions now (if they held for the past 10 years) so optimism is on the rise. I usually don't pay attention to these kind of headlines unless we really get enamored by them and even if we do, they really aren't an accurate timing mechanism. If used for timing you're only going to hit a turning point by luck. (Well, it's luck no matter what, but anyway.....)

    Coupled with some other factors such as AAII hitting 52% bulls and VIX dropping over 50% in the past two weeks, I'd have to say buying here is wrong unless it's part of a scheduled buying program such as tsp contributions. With a VIX at 12, gains are very limited.

    I don't like AAPL but it's a bellweather and it's not doing so good. There have been around 4 distribution days the past 3 weeks in COMPQ but most of that is due to AAPL. OIH is up against resistance and is another leader. The most obvious is 1500 psych level which probably should trigger some selling. XLF looks strong here though which I wouldn't expect. Bonds also are holding up very well but most of that is due to pension funds overdoing bonds just as they overdid commodities in 2006-2008. Not the best indicator lately for turns because everyone is buying the bond dip hard. From a trading standpoint, Obama was a buy for for bonds, Mitt was a buy for stocks.

    All in all, it's looking more bearish than bullish at this point. I am happily a buyer at 1400 again.

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  5. #15

    Join Date
    Jul 2012
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    Default Re: The top must be close...

    any of the top 50 wanna cluck so i can overtake them? *snort*


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  7. #16

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    Raleigh, NC
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    Default Re: The top must be close...

    Quote Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues View Post
    because...
    Don't know bro. Don't overestimate my non-system system!!! Nobody buys my newsletter - and, I cannot blame them.

    But, here is my thought. Those bond funds the dumb money folks own ended a little negative for the most recent quarter on their 401(k) statements. That might be the first time they have seen a negative quarter since they bailed out of equities in February of 2009. And, they just found out that the Hidden Hand of the Taxman ain't coming at them.

    So, some will go to cash. And, some will start moving some assets to equities. They just saw that the S&P500 is even money man. Just gotta get in.

    This is all very scientific BS, but it's all I got man. No charts. No candlesticks. No Bollinger Bands, Stochastics, or Weighted Averages. Just a trillion dollars losing money slowly and folks looking at the mail and trying to beat the street.

    My guess is that the run will keep going for a month or so and then da'Boyz will take some profit. Will da'Boyz string em along or take em out right now. As with any con da'Boyz will try to real us in as far as they can. My guess is that correction time will be early April. It will be relatively mild because there are fundamental improvements to our economy so equities will remain under to fairly valued. Then, we shall see.

    Does that mean that I - in utter oblivion - will follow the above 'system'. Nope. Ain't gotta clue. What happens if the FED decides to 'Defend the Dollar'. Or Greece attacks Italy. Or whatever...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  9. #17

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Gainesville, Florida, USA
    Posts
    24,244

    Default Re: The top must be close...

    If it's a 1982 rally the consolidation may not arrive until September. It will be a consolidation and not a correction from much higher levels - so the pain will be tolerable.

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