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Thread: Cycle of Emotions

  1. #1

    Default Cycle of Emotions

    Seems like a good time to revisit this old friend...

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.


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  3. #2

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    Default Re: Cycle of Emotions

    I would calculate that we are still at the hope level for the near future - the market has a long way to go to get to optimism.

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  5. #3

    Default Re: Cycle of Emotions

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    I would calculate that we are still at the hope level for the near future - the market has a long way to go to get to optimism.
    I guess the question is: are we on the downslope or upslope.
    100 G
    RSI - Relative Strength Indicator DMA - day moving average

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  7. #4

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    Default Re: Cycle of Emotions

    Indeed it does, Birch. have a long way to go to get to optimism. farther than you want to believe, perhaps. Denial isn't a river in Egypt you know, but its still navigable once you get over the sandbars.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  9. #5

    Default Re: Cycle of Emotions

    Quote Originally Posted by clester View Post
    I guess the question is: are we on the downslope or upslope.
    Being only 8% or so from the top, I'd say we're somewhere between denial and fear. If a bear market is in our future, we'll start to hit the lower levels - probably before any official signs of the next recession. We can probably still play the bounces however (Another sign we're not near the bottom).
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #6

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    Default Re: Cycle of Emotions

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Being only 8% or so from the top, I'd say we're somewhere between denial and fear. If a bear market is in our future, we'll start to hit the lower levels - probably before any official signs of the next recession. We can probably still play the bounces however (Another sign we're not near the bottom).
    actually i think we're between fear and desperation. market has a lot of fear right now but nobody saying the sky's falling... yet haha.
    I trade based on volume + price action. Price action alone only tells half the story.

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  13. #7

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    Default Re: Cycle of Emotions

    We are each at different places. Yesterday I must've been at the denial stage because I bought back in. This morning it was "hey, wait a minute", and it will turn to fear in the last couple trading hours if this downslope continues. If I can move through the cycle fast enough I will sell by the deadline tomorrow and wait safely for December. Let's face it, those clowns in DC are in no hurry to turn this around and jumping in like I did was like playing the shell game on the sidewalk in the city.

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  15. #8

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    Default Re: Cycle of Emotions

    love your sig mrBowl, i can drink to that.

    sucks my team's qb is prolly out for the season, but i'll keep the faith. maybe i'm in 'denial' mode as far as football is concerned

    and whenever the season's over, depression mode. preseason = optimism, and the cycle continues
    I trade based on volume + price action. Price action alone only tells half the story.

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  17. #9

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    Default Re: Cycle of Emotions

    Sniper, so many QBs just went down that I can't tell which team you follow. Best of luck, tho. These teams look a lot different when the starter goes down.

    I love baseball also, and I'm a lifelong SF fan, so it was very tough having that excitement end. Now the 49ers will carry me awhile. February/March is the toughest, and I gravitate to basketball, mostly college, to fill the void.

    This post proves that I'm still denial about the market, I guess. LOL


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  19. #10

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    Default Re: Cycle of Emotions

    Quote Originally Posted by MrBowl View Post
    Sniper, so many QBs just went down that I can't tell which team you follow. Best of luck, tho. These teams look a lot different when the starter goes down.

    I love baseball also, and I'm a lifelong SF fan, so it was very tough having that excitement end. Now the 49ers will carry me awhile. February/March is the toughest, and I gravitate to basketball, mostly college, to fill the void.

    This post proves that I'm still denial about the market, I guess. LOL
    Ah nice, congrats on that sweep, I have some good friends that are also SF Giants fans and we were all at the bar watching game 4 cheering em on.

    I'm a Steeler fan, since 1990 (when I started watching football as a kid). Ben took a bad injury that might knock him out for the season, dislocated rib that was millimeters away from piercing his aorta and killing him, nasty.
    I trade based on volume + price action. Price action alone only tells half the story.

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  21. #11

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    Default Re: Cycle of Emotions

    Thanks, Sniper. Back in April/May I was explaining to people that the SF Giants were in a rebuilding year as they replaced older past-their-prime players with a youth movement. I guess they went through that cycle pretty quickly.

    I guessed that you are a Steeler fan. I have a few friends that are also Steeler fans. I really think that is the NFL's premier franchise, and they have the best set of fans of any team.

    Anyway, to throw in something "on topic"...I see so many people using technical analysis to try and time the market right now. In fact, my own little study led me to buy in yesterday. This is a purely news-driven market, or as FWM said, politically-driven. I don't know if any analysis or cycle can actually help out here. I was/am playing a game of chance that there will be a good (not-so-bad) few days leading up to the holiday next week, but the fiscal cliff and market reaction will likely hurt Black Friday, and I don't want to be in during that time. I can see from the news briefs that there is no urgency in DC to come to an agreement, so down we will go. But, we all want to be in when the agreement happens. Its like musical chairs.

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  23. #12

    Default Re: Cycle of Emotions

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Seems like a good time to revisit this old friend...

    i was shooting for somewhere past desperation and rapidly approaching panic.

    maybe this dead horse has a couple kicks left. just give me 3% and then get on with the flush that birchtree needs to realize his carradine hong kong closet self asphictiation wet dream rocket ride.

    you know it's coming.
    100g

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