KRE looks to be completing a base pattern here. Will it break out? When this whole thing started going down in 2007, we all said we'd watch the banks for guidance.
Attachment 7929
Printable View
KRE looks to be completing a base pattern here. Will it break out? When this whole thing started going down in 2007, we all said we'd watch the banks for guidance.
Attachment 7929
I don't consider this action in the regionals bullish here. Take a look at the volume, this has all the makings of a blow off top.
Attachment 8030
Nice call on the breakout. What would a sell-off in the small banks mean to the market in the short-term? Obviously they benefited from today's announcement. Are you thinking things will return to normal - small banks give back recent gains, big banks recoup losses, or something else?
The CEO of ING Direct had a good argument today about loan modifications.
Today's move probably was some kind of unwinding because if you look at XLF, it got hammered today on huge volume. Haven't looked at any options activity, but I'm guessing there was some big action in the way of hedging strategies are happening here because nobody knows what this Obama plan exactly entails.
Regionals are more important than the big banks IMO. We already know the big banks aren't going away any time soon as long as there is that line in the sand. This market has been on eggshells since the VIX stayed below 20 for some 7 trading days, so I can't say the big banks getting hammered is any surprise to me here. Yes, I think this is a blow off top in the regionals and no way am I a buyer here. The Philly Bank Index has a huge 25 week trading range and meanwhile the S&P was up around 14% during that time period (to its recent top). That alone is a good divergence worth noting.
Doesn't look like wall street cares too much for this new plan to loan money to main street banks. KRE diverging again on XLF as the TBTF's satiate for more risk. This is not the kind of action you want to see on this ETF during big up days for the general market.
Attachment 8152
The banks continue to give us warning signs. MACD rolling over below the zero line, low volume rally out of a bearish wedge, and good volume today on the swing high dump below the 50 DMA.
Attachment 8495
A look at the banks give us an indecisive message going forward. However, no matter how bullish the KRE looks, buying pressure seems to be diminishing. In my opinion, these charts are both bearish. KRE could be a bull trap.
Attachment 8608
XLF still has good resistance ahead and appears overbought right here after what I believe to be a blowoff top. Last time I felt we had a blowoff top in XLF was in late January, just as the market 'corrected'.
Attachment 8609
It is amazing what liquidity can do to a market. Citi went over a billion shares two days in a row again. I doubt anyone is buying off of fundamentals either. XLF looks majorly overbought here. Will this resistance break hold?
I don't like that long term declining MACD either.
Attachment 8644
XLF looks to be blowing off here. KRE fought it off earlier in the year and continued to grind higher, but the top looks more promising in XLF this time around. I know the aura of this thread has been bearish the past month or so, but the distribution in this market has been obvious. Markets will try to suck in all available bears before finally turning down. This market is a complete drunken circus.
Attachment 8819
In case you still believe the propaganda being pasted on the front page by our apparatchiks, look no further than the profits being made at the big banks. Not only did GS have a perfect quarter, but so did BAC, JPM and (sources say) C. Here are 4 companies that were on their knees begging for forgiveness (and a loan from the fed at .1%) a little over a year ago. We have been completely sold down the river.
A drive down any main shopping strip yields vacant buildings and parking lots with weeds growing in the cracks. Oh, but don't worry, the bull will save us. There isn't any real wealth in this world, it's a facade of credit and slight of hand tricks. The media continues to brainwash the public over the recent market intraday CRASH last week by blaming it on fat fingers, HFT, and now a trader who 'had a big short position in the futures market'.
Meanwhile, the distribution of shares from professional crooks to the unknowing public is nearly complete as evidenced by 8 of the last 17 trading days in most majors being distribution days; not to mention overly bullish sentiment surveys and PC ratios. Have no fear as long as the AD line keeps going higher. It's working master.
You go bullitt. scary stuff but right on. they need carbon trading to go full steam to elongate the farce. not sure what the masters will do with themselves once they got it All and everyone else is eating dirt and grass. maybe theyll be bored to death and lose their minds.
Amen Bullitt and when the music stops guess who won't have a chair to sit in. America already is brainwashed.
We were invited to this dance???
Look, I'm thinking the next time we get to 11,000, I'm out fool (pun) bore!
I think we are going to see some more jobless numbers and that coupled with more European debt and no real estate movement this summer will crush us.:cool:
Anyone know what was happened with Wells Fargo/Wachovia today (5/19/10).
I saw early, they appareantly had dropped some on something about them returning/repaying a government bailout/loan - but I'd think that would be good news for them. :confused: Anyone hear on this bank, and can explain in lay-terms?
I can't take any 'news' serious since it has all been leaked to the major players days prior anyway. Without proprietary trading desks, the big banks (WFC, C, GS, MS, BAC and JPM) are bankrupted entities just like GM.
I'm of the opinion that the music has been off since February when big volume selling came in on the downside. This is now what I call The Great Trap. Big money is dumping shares off to the little guy who really believes that this is merely an interlude within an ongoing drunken circus. The keg is kicked but there are still a few left trying to suck out the foam.
Banks are underperforming the general market here. Take heed.
Attachment 9448
Not sure where is best to post this (thinking of Poolman's Acct Talk, post of the Man-Of-Truth video earlier).
Anyway, more rumors/rumblings coming out on financials/banking... :blink:
Friday, June 4, 2010
US financial markets may be shut down on Monday
It is my collective read that US financial markets may finally be shut down on Monday June 7, 2010, if Fed Desks don't intervene on Sunday night.
We have never been this close to the inevitable outcome.
Every single day, it is becoming more visible to the masses that a large portion of the western civilization is bankrupt with no savings, no production, no growth, no future prospects.
Today Hungary joined the club. Eventually they will take their creditors with them into abyss. Most of the Arab and Iran central banks are now switching from Euro to USD and Gold.
Like Sol said, "Bear Market Rules Apply" but this bear is something you have never seen in your life. Save your wealth, children, family and future. 2008 was just a warm up.
Analysis: G20 doesn't even try to put brave face on debt mess
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6550SJ20100606
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner speaks to the media during a news conference of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Busan June 5, 2010.
...GEITHNER ON THE LOSING SIDE
One reason why the talks were heated, in the words of a senior South Korean official, was a rearguard action fought by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who argued that restoring fiscal sustainability was a task for the medium term.
In a frank letter to his counterparts, Geithner warned that global growth would be sub-par if Europe -- especially Germany -- as well as China and Japan did not boost domestic demand to make up for the retrenchment forced upon overindebted U.S. consumers.
...And Germany gave short shrift to the view, shared by the IMF, that growth would take a hit in the short term if rich economies cut their budget deficits without adjustments by emerging economies to reduce their reliance on exports.
"I made no bones about the fact that I share the IMF's underlying philosophy only in a very limited way," German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said.
It is never good news when two of the world's biggest economies bicker. U.S. pressure on Germany to change its monetary policy was one of the factors that unnerved investors in the run-up to the 1987 stock market crash.
...SETBACKS ALL ROUND
With Europe signing up for austerity, it is no wonder that pessimists such as U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini see the euro zone heading for stagnation if not recession.
And in the absence of a burst in private sector demand in current account surplus countries such as Germany and China, global economic imbalances could deteriorate again -- especially if a resurgent dollar undercuts the revival in U.S. exports.
The immediate test, though, will be whether bond traders will be convinced by the G20's promise of probity.
"Noble intentions by advanced economies to bring their budget deficits under control are rubbing up against the harsh reality of a weak and unstable recovery that might increase the need for further stimulus measures," said Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think-tank.
Prasad, a trade professor at Cornell University and a former IMF economist, said the G20 had recognized the depth of the public debt morass and the consequent risk of global instability.
"But the communique is unlikely to give bond markets much confidence that budget deficits will be brought under control with anything approaching the alacrity with which they were run up during the height of the crisis," he said.
The G20 is grappling with complex issues. It is unrealistic to expect magic-bullet solutions from such a diverse group of rich and emerging economies. But it is tough to put a positive gloss on the Busan meeting.
And, in the end, ministers did not even try.:cool:
Good one James! :)
Yeah, I thought by posting that from xTrends.com that others might uncover other news (either verify/not confirm). Best I could find was news from the G20 mtg. A good rap though: "G is just alright with me" (for now). :D
PS Likely of minor interest, still, on the P&F chart - a new bearish P.O. there - now 920.
Likely beyond "watching the banks." Or, maybe it is really watching "The Banks!"
- Will this (China's) blatant manipulation be a one-day-wonder? - a sustained pop?, - or a flop?... :blink::rolleyes:
http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/19/news...rate/index.htm
Banks Dodged a bullet?
"Hmmm.....
June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Legislation to overhaul financial regulation will help curb risk-taking and boost capital buffers. What it won’t do is fundamentally reshape Wall Street’s biggest banks or prevent another crisis, analysts said.Probably.http://www.tsptalk.com/uploads/2010/Jun/jackass.png
The ink is not yet dry and there's no vote yet on exactly what this bill actually is and does. I'll be doing my usual analysis once I have an actual stable copy.
But what I can tell from watching CSPAN until the wee hours, and following the process as closely as I reasonably can without crawling up Barney Frank's skirt, this is what we got:
Much of the bill also won't do anything immediately, as it "enables" rather than directs in and of itself. That's very bad, as the regulatory capture process remains intact. What actual regulations will come out of this remain an open question.
- Banks will have to spin off SOME (but not the important parts) of their derivative operations. The parts they care about (and on which they make the most money) are not credit-default swaps, they're interest-rate and FX swaps. Those are pretty much left alone, and that stinks. Bet on them trying to find every possible way to keep those "custom" as much as they can and thus off exchanges, even though that's almost entirely bogus and intended only to rape the consumer of those products by hiding price discovery.
- Investing in hedge funds is a red herring. Controlling them is another matter, and might in fact be worthwhile reform. We'll see. Color me skeptical on this one until I can read the ACTUAL text as passed.
- It appears that language that would prevent banks from taking positions opposite to their clients (as opposed to hedging market-making risk) has survived. This would prevent the Goldman-esque game played with various CDO structures. Again, I wait until I can read actual language before I call this good.
- Increasing capital is good. Not forcing that capital to cover all unsecured lending is bad. The attempt to split the baby and keep the "credit leverage" game is clear in the legislation, but so far nothing they've tried has made that actually work, nor do I think it can. Thus, the major factors in the instability we experienced remain intact and that's bad.
- Fannie and Freddie are left out of it. That's horrible. I know the banks went bananas on the possibility they'd be constrained, but they need to be constrained and the banks need to be forced to pay for their part of interacting with Fan/Fred and causing this mess. Not in this bill it won't, and that sucks.
On balance: Better than no bill, and Judd Gregg claiming that the bill is a "disaster" and will "dramatically contract credit" is just pure garbage. What it will do is stop a small amount of unsupportable and unsustainable lending, but nowhere near enough of it. It will not stop excessive risk-taking and risk-layering. The capital requirements aren't stringent enough, the "Volcker Rule" was watered down to the point of being of little effect and the derivatives regulation was eviscerated.
Oh, and nowhere that I can find - thus far - is there an "or else" for either a bank or a regulation for violations of the law.
On balance, thus far, I call it this:
http://tickerforum.org/smilies-local/nothingburger.gif
All bun to (try to) soothe the masses and electoral anger, no beef."
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...-A-Bullet.html
Bank stocks zoomed higher today.
The banks won.
There still will be "TOO BIG TO FAIL".
They won't be broken up.
Sucks.
All we got is some window dressing. That's it.
The ONLY thing you have to know is this-
Yesterday, Citibank closed at $3.77 a share.
Today, it closed at $3.94 a share.
You tell me- you think anything at all is going to be done to control the banks????
Banks just diverged away from the S&P in a major way after that ruling. Makes me thing the watered down version isn't as harsh as the crooks believed it would be.
Attachment 9625
www.stockcharts.com
Whoa, major head fake! XLF:SPY ratio is now at .132.
XLF made a H&S reversal on the weekly chart and looks like KRE is sitting on support. When these things go, be prepared for the resumption of bank closing Friday. Looks like we are at 174 now for the past year ending on last Friday.
Banking/Financials dropped big today ($BKX 2.36%)
Related??
"Crack Smoking Part Deux" [re: The Fed, Treasury, etc.]
..."We'll start with the fact that these charlatans get the cycle backwards - Treasury sells the debt first, not the other way around, and to do so it must find someone who has surplus in dollars - the currency in which the Treasuries are funded.
Let's next run this little claim to exhaustion in an attempt to see if this is a clear-cut Ponzi Scheme - ask yourself why Treasury doesn't just print up and sell the entire $14 trillion in GDP every year.
That would instantly absorb all excess capacity and result in an immediate and monstrous economic boom, right?
Well, no, it would not.
Were Treasury to attempt to do this it would discover what the words "failed auction" mean in short order, as there simply isn't enough existing surplus (electronically or otherwise) to absorb that supply."
"...See, we haven't printed anything. "QE" where the reserves created are immediately deposited with The Fed is a circle-jerk. There is no money-printing going on until and unless the reserves created enter the economy in some form. So long as they remain on deposit with The Fed it is simply a pass of a $20 bill from them to you and back to them - the net monetary impact is zilch.
To add insult to injury, Bernanke got the exact opposite reaction he was looking for! By "buying" Fannie and Freddie (along with Treasury) paper he didn't support price and suppress coupon - to the contrary, as this chart shows, as soon as he started "QE" the 10 year Treasury yield went higher, not lower, and it was the end of "QE" that marked the top the 10 year Treasury rate!
Again: Why?
That's simple: Credit creation against nothing (that is, not backed by actual hard collateral - that is, surplus already produced in some form), is simply a naked short against the monetary system. That is, the writer of such a position is agreeing to deliver money he does not yet have and may not be able to acquire, with nothing other than his word behind that promise.
It doesn't matter if that short is created by a government or a private actor, with one important distinction: in a fiat currency system government can decide to emit unbacked currency to satisfy a naked short, where private parties cannot."
"...Remember, a naked short is self-limiting because the shorted item doesn't actually exist. That is, it is counterfeiting in the purest sense; you're selling something you don't have and may not be able to acquire. The important fact to remember, however, is that a naked short will eventually unwind, and when it does, the depression of price that occurred when it was created will be reversed.
Printed additional "shares" (or currency), on the other hand - that is, raw, unbacked emission - does the opposite - it creates permanent debasement.
Likewise, the argument that "QE" reduced or capped rates is exactly backward. It did no such thing - it in fact caused rates to rise - that is, it supported bank THEFT via interest from ordinary Americans - exactly the opposite of the claimed intended effect!" :sick:
[more...]
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
Banks/Financials jumped big today ($BKX +3.90%) :suspicious:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BK...d=p55192775979
Curious, I checked what Index/Sector made out the best today? (This was apparently a very low volume day.) Well, looked over most of them, and best I can tell it was, yes, the $BKX at +3.15%. :cool:
(Just something to consider...)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BK...d=p55192775979
Monday, August 9th. - Stock Trends, Charts, and Commentary
"Financials now make up 16.26% of the S&P 500 index.
So, it would be very helpful for the S&P 500 if banks were healthier, making good profits, and trending higher.
So, what is happening to the Banking Index? Is it moving higher, stalling, or falling? Today's chart shows the action of the Banking Index ($BKX) going back to August of 2009.
What's clear, is that the index has been in a sideways trading range since May of this year.
Starting in July, that range morphed into a triangular pattern whose apex will occur before the end of next week.
What does that mean?
It means that the Banking Index will breakout of the pattern soon, and the ensuing move should be between 10% to 13% from the breakout level.
So ... this will either be very good, or very bad for the S&P 500."
http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Attachment 9823
Just FYI, why "Watch-The-Banks"? Most here know they are the bad-guys. The crooks. The PPT has been pumping trillions to "save" them - and they got us into this mess.
The latest, bill-on-the-Hill - is to "save" the underwater homeowners [only]. In reality, its just more of our dollars/debt that will end up going to the Banks. :sick:
There are other reasons to watch 'em! - Its our money/our debt after all!
(Just thought I'd add perspective on why I think this thread could be used for so much more.) VR!
You got that right Hessian. If these guys are down, the market will be down. Oh, how I remember 2 years ago (ancient history in the stock market) how the gurus proclaimed, "Watch the banks! We can't rally out of this credit mess without them."
Second test of support failed on KRE and momo is to the downside especially after the failed downtrend breakout. Major divergence taking place right now.
Attachment 9837
And the downtrend plays on. It's all about lending. If anybody is doing it, these guys will show it in their price performance.
Attachment 9968
Attachment 9967
I think you'll begin to see more bank buyouts in the immediate future - I should hopefully own a few that will go out with a nice premium.
Banking Index $BKX was down large today: -3.17%, an amount that gave back the last 2 days (Thurs & Friday), and then some.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BK...d=p55192775979
Birch, I agree, re: more bank buyouts likely - and also like to find info on whether bank defaults are increasing (whether any such trend is started).
VR
This is a comprehensive read, and well worth the whole article.
http://www.truth-out.org/shock-thera...many-more63803
Shock Therapy for Wall Street:
JPMorgan Suspends 56,000 Foreclosures; GMAC and BOA Many More
Saturday 02 October 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqnHLDeedVg
On September 30, Rep. Alan Grayson posted a devastating seven-minute video, in which he gave four real-world examples of such travesties of justice, including a man who was foreclosed on when he didn’t have a mortgage and paid cash for the home; a home that had two foreclosure suits against it because both servicers claimed ownership of the title; and a couple foreclosed on over a contested $75 late fee.
Grayson blamed the massive foreclosure problems largely on the electronic shortcut called MERS. “The banks simply digitized mortgage titles into a privatized system, called the Mortgage Electronic Registry System (or MERS),” he said. “And it did the transfers by trading Excel spreadsheets among the banks and trusts, rather than endorsing the notes as required by their own contracts, by state real estate law and by IRS rules.” He stated that 60 million properties are recorded in the name of MERS -- 60% of the mortgages in the USA, and 97% of the loans made between 2005 and 2008.
For all those mortgages filed in the name of MERS, say these courts, the chain of title has been irretrievably broken. Humpty Dumpty has had a great fall and cannot be put back together again.
MERS is simply an electronic data base. On its website and in assorted court pleadings, it declares that it owns nothing. It was set up that way intentionally so that it would be “bankruptcy-remote,” something required by the credit rating agencies in order to turn the mortgages passing through it into highly rated securities that could be sold to investors. MERS not only has no assets; it has no employees. The thousands of people enlisted to sign affidavits on its behalf are merely conduits. The arrangement satisfied the ratings agencies, but it has not satisfied the courts. Increasingly, judges are holding that if MERS owns nothing, it cannot foreclose, and it cannot convey title by assignment so that the trustee for the investors can foreclose. MERS breaks the chain of title so that no one has standing to foreclose. The homes are effectively owned free and clear.
That does not mean the homeowners don’t owe money to someone. They do. But the claim for relief is not in “law” (by virtue of an enforceable contract or rule) but in “equity” (a remedy provided just because it is fair), and MERS is not the proper plaintiff. Every MERS case involves a securitization, which means the real parties in interest are a group of investors somewhere; and before the homeowners can be made to pay, the investors have to come forward and prove not only that they are the parties owed the money, but the actual sums they are owed. In some cases they might already have been paid; for example, by insurers on credit default swaps held by the investment pool. The investors are entitled to recover in equity only so much as they are actually out of pocket, not the full amount of the original promissory notes, since they were not parties to those notes and there is no way to re-establish the chain of title.
What About the Non-judicial Foreclosure States?
Foreclosures have been suspended by JPMorgan, GMAC and BOA in 23 states, but what about the rest? The others are non-judicial foreclosure states, which means they allow foreclosure through a power of sale clause in a deed of trust without going to court. The presumption is that if the lender doesn’t have to prove his standing to sue before a judge, he can proceed. State laws in non-judicial states allow the sale of a property to satisfy a foreclosure as long as the trustee follows the regulations concerning notice. That would seem to violate Constitutional due process, but the United States Constitution has held that due process protections apply only when the government is involved in the taking of property. When a deed of trust and promissory note are executed between two private parties (homeowners and lenders), there is no automatic due process protection. The homeowners agreed to it in writing; case closed.
But here’s the catch: what if the lender signing the original documents is not the party foreclosing on the property? Then it becomes a question of fact whether the foreclosing party has authority to proceed, and that makes it a judicial issue – a question of fact for the courts. If the foreclosing party can show a clear chain of title – an assignment or progression of assignments from the original lender to himself – he is home free. But courts have increasingly been holding that MERS breaks the chain of title. Foreclosure expert Neil Garfield argues that even in non-judicial foreclosure states, that means the investors have to go to court to prove their case. And when they do, they will run up against the brick wall of MERS. He concludes:
"There will be a head-slapping moment when title carriers, attorneys, judges and administrative agencies and clerks suddenly realize that the monster created on Wall Street has its equivalent in the public records of counties across the nation. I doubt if more than 6-7% of all the foreclosures in the past 10 years have resulted in clear title delivered to anyone. And the only corrective instrument can come from the original owner. That homeowner is sitting in the catbird seat and doesn’t know it. Millions of people who THINK they have lost their homes still own them and if anyone wants a signature from those people to clear title, they are going to be required to pay dearly, which is at it should be. Eventually the purse gets returned to the victim from whom it was snatched."
From the NY Times:
Foreclosures Slow as Document Flaws Emerge
The foreclosure machinery that has forced millions of Americans out of their homes is beginning to seize up as some lenders and their lawyers are accused of cutting corners in their pursuit of rapid home repossessions.
Wall Street was examining the impact the disclosures could have on the lenders. Moody’s Investors Service has placed the servicer ratings of GMAC and Chase on review for possible downgrade.
Fired worker says home foreclosure firm forged documents
Attorneys and staff members forged signatures and changed dates, casually passed around notary stamps, and notarized stacks of blank documents to be filled in later, said Tammie Lou Kapusta, in an interview with attorney general's staff.
Man, I'm glad mine is paid for and I have the paperwork!:)
CROOKS are everywhere, and the regulators knew NOTHING about it, surely? :nuts:
you don't suppose...
the financial services industry ran the market up to try and cover for this upcoming mortgage mess....
nah.... conspiracy theory!
It's a Bull market- and election cycle- buy, buy, buy!
Sept 20 and counting...
Goldman sued by SEC
April 16 to May 6 = 21 days
New York Times article
"Europe's Web of Debt" May 1
Going Viral, place your bets:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCM7rMIqxmk
Think he's a little much?
see this..... from 2006
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEAb8Hbk_Q4
In the EU, Dec 7th is "Banker Mutiny" day.
Will there be sufficient paper currency reserves if this migrates to the US?
(http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.p...&postcount=264)
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/man...lls-europeans-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Uop5R7E314