Re: Is a bounce too obvious?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
tsptalk
I am looking for a little oversold, options expiration, overly bearish rebound. This play actually looks so obvious that it may be a trap.
The early survey results today are 23% bulls, 61% bears.
There is a large gap up near 825 (Currently 789).
The break of the wedge is at the same spot (825) and a rally back to the old wedge support line is very possible, but it should act as resistance.
The problem is, I am hearing a lot of talk of this bounce, and that makes me a little nervous. It could become a self-fulfilling prophesy, or it could be a "do the opposite". The herd appear too bearish and that is a good sign and could be the tie-breaker.
I agree Tom.
The PPT might have screwed this up, although the day is not over. I wanted to see a big down day to suck in the shorts for a crash play. I wanted to buy in today, but I'm not sure now. Although, the I fund would be a great play if the PPT fails and we get a big sell off this afternoon.
Re: Is a bounce too obvious?
Bonds not confirming this selling. Is the weakness in bonds today (higher yields) another sign of a possible rally in stocks next week?
Re: Is a bounce too obvious?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
tsptalk
Bonds not confirming this selling. Is the weakness in bonds today (higher yields) another sign of a possible rally in stocks next week?
Yes, I believe so.
It could start any day now. I'm just waiting for that big capitulation plunge around 740. We do not want to see a slow bleed down the Bollinger band like we saw early last Oct.
With only one IFT left, perhaps I'm trying to time it too perfectly. That is not a good thing.:D
Re: Is a bounce too obvious?
Yes.
I commented about this in my account talk:
Quote:
The DOW is now at a 7 year low, albeit on low volume. The S&P 500 has yet to breach its Nov 08 low... only 37 points left to drop. I just may forego waiting on the additional 37 point drop in the S&P 500 in order to get on board for the inevitable bounce which I believe is now within reach.
:cool:Rod
Re: Is a bounce too obvious?
Maybe the lack of a bounce is a sign that some of the things that have worked in the past 12 months are no longer working.
Re: Is a bounce too obvious?
Some info from www.sentimentrader.com: 2/20/09
"A short-term setup we've discussed a few times is that the market tends to rebound when we see 3 consecutive days of very weak breadth on the NYSE. This week has certainly qualified, as the Up Issues Ratio on that exchanges has been under 33% every day.
"The last time we've seen three straight days with less than 1/3 of NYSE issues managing a rise was November 12 of last year. The S&P gapped up the next morning and rose more than 6% during the day.
"But this morning, unless things turn around in a hurry, we're seeing a fairly substantial gap down, with the S&P indicated to open more than 1% below yesterday's close. Looking over the past 25 years of history, there were only six days when the the Up Issues Ratio was under 33% for three days, then the S&P gapped down by more than -0.5% the next morning.
"Those dates were 08/09/82, 04/14/87, 10/19/87, 04/04/94, 07/24/02 and 10/10/08. Each one of those occurrences coincided with at least a short-term bottom that day. The average intraday drawdown (excluding Black Monday in 1987) was around -1%, but (again excluding Black Monday) the market reversed to close higher than the open each time. If you had waited for the close to buy instead of the open, you would have avoided the disastrous drawdown in October 1987 while still being able to participate in further short-term gains.
"...when were the last two "Dow Theory" sell signals, according to when they both closed at a new three-year low on the same day? October 9, 2002 and October 3, 1974. Over the next three months, the maximum drawdown from those two instances averaged -2.1% and the maximum gain averaged +21.2%. Some sell signal, that."
Re: Is a bounce too obvious?
Dow up 100, but looking deadcat-like. We need more power, cap't.
Re: Is a bounce too obvious?
I think we really need to see 778-780 to establish a short-term uptrend. Anything less and we will have an inside day, which could fall apart at any time.
Re: Is a bounce too obvious?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
tsptalk
I think we really need to see 778-780 to establish a short-term uptrend. Anything less and we will have an inside day, which could fall apart at any time.
Looks like it's trying... of course anything could happen when the witching hour/half-hour arrives.
Re: Is a bounce too obvious?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Minnow
Looks like it's trying... of course anything could happen when the witching hour/half-hour arrives.
It might happen today (dive), the VIX took a dive and profit takers might want an out today.....:sick:
Re: Is a bounce too obvious?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
tsptalk
I think we really need to see 778-780 to establish a short-term uptrend. Anything less and we will have an inside day, which could fall apart at any time.
775... Everybody... push, push! :)