Re: coolhand's Account Talk
Nice to have another of the old crew back to posting. Welcome and I look forward to your posts!
Re: coolhand's Account Talk
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Show-me
Nice to have another of the old crew back to posting. Welcome and I look forward to your posts!
I concur with Show-me,
Your outlook is similar to mine..
Thanks for posting.
Poolman
Re: coolhand's Account Talk
Hey Coolhand, can you still dance? Welcome back, we missed your input!:D
Re: coolhand's Account Talk
Hi coolhand,
I've been a lurker on your and Frenchie's investorshub page for well over a year (maybe two). Nice to see you here, where I've also been a lurker.
Agree with many of your points, but I wouldn't have been suprised with any direction the market took on Friday. I think the market looked past the passage of the bill and on to "what's next?"- and the picture looking forward (as magic 8 ball might read) is "cloudy." Earnings, lift on shorts, prez campaigns and inflation/deflation lie ahead.
Careful as she goes...
Re: coolhand's Account Talk
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Bravo Sierra
Hi coolhand,
I've been a lurker on your and Frenchie's investorshub page for well over a year (maybe two). Nice to see you here, where I've also been a lurker.
Agree with many of your points, but I wouldn't have been suprised with any direction the market took on Friday. I think the market looked past the passage of the bill and on to "what's next?"- and the picture looking forward (as magic 8 ball might read) is "cloudy." Earnings, lift on shorts, prez campaigns and inflation/deflation lie ahead.
Careful as she goes...
BravoSierra, interesting handle. Welcome to the MB. :D
Re: coolhand's Account Talk
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Bravo Sierra
Hi coolhand,
I've been a lurker on your and Frenchie's investorshub page for well over a year (maybe two). Nice to see you here, where I've also been a lurker.
Agree with many of your points, but I wouldn't have been suprised with any direction the market took on Friday. I think the market looked past the passage of the bill and on to "what's next?"- and the picture looking forward (as magic 8 ball might read) is "cloudy." Earnings, lift on shorts, prez campaigns and inflation/deflation lie ahead.
Careful as she goes...
Yes. That's the "fundamental" part of the market and I certainly agree with it, which is why I believe price will continue to move downward. But emotion is a big part of what moves the market too and often contrasts with fundamentals. Right now this market is being heavily manipulated. Shorting has been limited. The declines appeared orderly. But the bottom line right now is how much more pain will we see before we get an Intermediate Term rally. We seem to be getting close. Futures are deep in the red right now, which I expected. If we turn today after the initial decline, with breadth and volume, we could see some relief for a little while. A big if though.
Re: coolhand's Account Talk
Relative VIX is flashing a buy alert. It's at a level that's has started other rallies, but if price doesn't follow we're probably in for more pain.
The close was relatively bullish, but folks are panicky. We could drop some more after this or just chop around until fear subsides some before we get a good rally. Then again, if volume and breadth come in quickly things could move fast. There's been talk of a half point fed cut, but I wouldn't count on that. Some good news might help though.
From a sentiment standpoint, the Short and Intermediate Term are bullish, but not convincingly. The market may take another shot down to wash out all the bulls who took a position today. That would convince most bulls to take a seat I think. Most Day traders will be waiting for an actionable signal to jump in as the bullish signals are not enough by themselves in a manipulated market. Us TSPers aren't nearly that agile. We could see a 10% or more rally before we could get invested. That's why I got in at the close last Thursday.
Fearless Forcasters has a weekly bearish signal this week (54%). These guys are pretty savvy and generally correct in their positioning, but is it too bearish? I would not bet on it in this market.
100% C - 10/3
Re: coolhand's Account Talk
The volatility will scare people, but we've got a great set-up for a rally. Any chop probably should be taken as a bottoming process. We are news driven right now and da' boyz will want to scoop all the excess premiums on these beaten down stocks before too much longer. It's still a bear market though so expect to retest yesterday's closing price at some point.
Re: coolhand's Account Talk
I can't help but think of all those "buy and holders" who wagged their collective fingers at us saying you can't time the market. Then I look at all the folks here on this web site who are still in great shape considering market conditions (I'm about 20% ahead of SPX). They must be eating their words by now.
Re: coolhand's Account Talk
Yesterday's low in the SPX needs to hold today if we're going to turn this thing in the Short Term. Severe chop should be expected, but if we break yesterday's low things could get out of hand.
Re: coolhand's Account Talk
My last post yesterday I said things could get out of hand if we closed below SPX 1106. We did close below that level and are now poised to see things get out of hand. But this morning, as I'm sure you are aware, central banks on a global scale have cut interest rates .5%. Futures are moving higher.
This is all well and good, but a lot of damage has been done and fears are extreme. It remains to be seen whether any rally can get started before more selling kicks in. I have a hard time seeing a major bounce right now and it will take more than one trading day to assess where the market is headed in the next couple of weeks.
The voracity of selling has caught many traders off guard, including myself. It is a rare event to see so much pain is so short a time.
I am contemplating selling out today, but it would go against all the indicators I am following along with bear market rules (buying weakness). I need to see how things unfold this morning. But even if we rally for the morning there's no way to know if it will continue in the afternoon. My biggest fear isn't losing more money. It's getting out with no way to get back in for over three weeks and then watching SPX hit 1200 by the end of the month. I may be a little sick right now, but that would be the clincher.
I am not suggesting that SPX will do that, but any scenario is possible with so much manipulation in the markets. Our accounts are not set-up to be nearly flexible enough to react to these kind of market conditions. Daily trades would have had me out a couple days ago, but getting caught in a waterfall forces me to look at things from an Intermediate Term perspective.
I believe that we are currently in a recession, but it is going to get markedly worse down the road. It is not just our economy that is suffering either. In fact, we're in better shape than many other economies worldwide (Europe and Asia included). This is because our market is more resilient and we are in better shape to react to negative economic forces, but because all economies are now globally connected the pain will probably endure for some time.
Rallies should continue to be sold until the market can prove we are close to a bottom. That could be a ways off yet.