Re: Buy and Hold vs. Performance Chasing
Here's a variation on the Callan Periodic Returns chart. I'm not sure I would adopt the Janus "diversified portfolio". However, I think the results are interesting.
The diversified portfolio is always "average". Fortunately, it is never "terrible".:cheesy:
https://ww3.janus.com/SiteObjects/pu...ic%20Table.pdf
The Case Against Market Timing
The following quotes were posted by Taylor Larimore in the Vanguard Diehards forum. Taylor is one of the authors of the The Bogleheads Guide to Investing:
As a former market timer, I learned that it pays to listen to investment authorities:
"It's extremely rare to hear of anyone winning at it (market timing) over a period of years. Indeed, I've never heard of such a genius." Jack Brennan, Vanguard CEO
"I never have the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do in the next six months, or the next year, or the next two." Warren Buffet
"If I have noticed anything over these 60 years on Wall Street, is is that people do not succeed in forecasting that's going to happen to the stock market." Benjamin Graham
"Forget about timing the market, it doesn't work. You'll lose money. Invest for the long haul and then sit back and wait--the market always goes up in the long-run." Paul Farrell, CBS Marketwatch
"Market-timing is bunk." Pat Dorsey, Morningstar Director of Fund Analysis.
"There will always be someone predicting disaster and someone predicting great fortune. At one time or another, each will be closer to correct than the other. But it won't matter to you if you understand this and have invested responsibly. You have a long-term plan; stick with it." Peter Lynch
"The market timer's Hall of Fame is an empty room." Jane Bryant Quinn, Author, Columnist
"Market Timing is a poor substitute for a long-term investment plan." Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal
"Market timing is an ineffective strategy for mutual Fund Investors." CDA/Wiesenberger
"The only way to make money with a (market timing) newsletter is by selling one." Malcolm Forbes
"Nobody but nobody, has consistently guessed the direction of the bond or stock market over any meaningful length of time." John Markese, President, AAII Journal
"I've learned that market timing can ruin you." Elaine Garzarelli, former Wall Street forecaster.
"Among the 160 or so newsletters the HFD monitors, the market timing recommendations of only 10 have beaten the stock market over the last decade on a risk-adjusted basis." Mark Hulbert 1-18-01
"As you can probably sense, we're not keen on market-timing. It just doesn't work." Morningstar's Course 106
"Over a 12.5 year period, 224 of 237 market timing newsletters went out of business." indexfundsadvisors.com
"I'm a strong advocate of buying and holding." Charles Schwab
"Buy and hold is a very dull strategy. It lacks pizzazz and doesn't inspire much admiration at cocktail parties. It has only one little advantage: It works, very profitably and very consistently." Frank Armstrong, Author
"For most investors the odds favor a buy-and-hold strategy." Carol Gould, New York Times
"There is absolutely no evidence that anyone can time the market." Bill Bernstein, author and advisor.
"Some people in the popular press talk about 'getting into' a bull market and 'getting out of' a bear market, but it is all marketing hype." Rick Ferri, Author and advisor
"Only liars manage to always be 'out' during bad times and 'in' during good times." Bernard Baruch
"It must be apparent to intelligent investors who if anyone possessed the ability to do so (market-time) he would become a billionaire so quickly he would not find it necessary to sell his stock market guesses to the general public." David L. Babson, famed investor
"There is an overwhelming body of evidence to support the view that believing in the ability of market timers is the equivalent of believing astrologers can predict the future." Larry Swedroe, author and advisor
"Don't trade in and out of funds. Stay invested.-- Not only does buy-and-hold investing offer better returns, but it's also less work." Eric Tyson, author Mutual Funds for Dummies
"Investors should look with a jaundiced eye at any market timing system being peddled by its guru-creator" W. Scott Simon, author
"Don't waste money subscribing to investment letters or expensive services.--Besides their cost, there is the problem that they are liable to tempt you into buying, and scare you into selling." Andrew Tobias, author
"If you buy--and then hold--a total-stock-market index fund, it is mathematically certain that you will outperform the vast majority of all other investors in the long run." Jason Zweig, Money magazine
"The facts suggest that successful market timing is extroardinarily difficult to achieve." Burton Malkiel, author of Random Walk
"If we haven't said it enough, we'll say it again: Market timing is dangerous." Barron's Guide to Making Investment Decisions
"Timing the market is for losers. Time IN the market will get you to the winner's circle, and you'll sleep better at night." Michael Leboeuf, author of "The Millionaire in You"
"Stay the course. It is the most important single piece of investment wisdom I can give to you." Jack Bogle"
Best wishes.
Taylor