Harry Dent

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I have been talking recently about how this final blow-off rally since the sharp 20%+ crash into late December 2018 is tracking very close to the one that occurred from late October 1998 into late March 2000.


That correlation suggests that this rally could last into late May or so, at the height of the normal annual seasonal cycle that says, “Sell in May and go away.”


If this final long rally compares to the last tech bubble one from October 1998 into March 2000, it would last about three to four more months into late May to late June. The gains from here would be about 15% for the S&P 500 at around 3,900 and 20%+ for the Nasdaq at 11,500-12,000.


This final bull market peak is now months away, not years, as many are suggesting. I see a peak between late March at the earliest and February of 2021 at the latest. Best range would be 11,000-12,000 between late May and the election.


If I had to give my pick this early in this late game, I would pick between late August and late October, at 11,000-12,000 on the Nasdaq.

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https://www.economyandmarkets.com/ec...final-rallies/

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Originally Posted by Bullitt

suggests that this rally could last into late May or so

I see a peak between late March at the earliest and February of 2021 at the latest. Best range would be 11,000-12,000 between late May and the election.

If I had to give my pick this early in this late game, I would pick between late August and late October, at 11,000-12,000 on the Nasdaq.

- Harry Dent

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Missed it by that much!

Harry is back and seems to think this was THE top for the next couple years. You'll have to subscribe to him to see what his projections are, but I can save you the hassle. Just read one of his books and change the years to 2020.

He has been talking a deflationary spiral for years and while he haven't seen inflation, we haven't seen bad deflation either. I tend to agree that deflation is a bigger risk the next five years than inflation. Globalization and technology continue to make everything cheaper and accessible. How much did it cost to publish a video 20 years ago? How much does it cost now? (Even if just you, editing costs, computer costs, DVD/VHS production costs, distribution costs.... Nowadays, youtube and done. Guaranteed more views than 20 years ago.)

Below from a few weeks ago:

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Forecasting how deep the impact will be, Mr Dent told Small Caps that he expects to see stock market declines by as much as 80% in the developed world while real-estate values, far more dislocated and region-specific are likely to fall 40-50%.

According to Mr Dent’s analysis, ultra-loose monetary policy in all developed countries over the past 30 years has sown the seeds of an impending financial catastrophe that eclipses all those previous.


Referring to long-term demographic changes, Mr Dent says several countries are exposed to a severe deflationary shock and worsening economic conditions including lower aggregate demand, higher unemployment, deflation – all set against a backdrop of more bankruptcies for both companies and individuals.

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https://smallcaps.com.au/harry-dent-...operty-bubble/

Harry's excited! "I want this d@mn market to CRASH!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-kX...ature=youtu.be

Some notes I took from Dent's latest book, "What to do When the Bubble Pops", released 4/21/20. He wrote the book in January, so this was all forecasted pre-crash.

I'd say this was pretty spot on. I guess we next wait and see if the S&P 500 and DJIA can make new highs. Watching the dollar.

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If they break below 26,300 on the Dow, we should see a fallback of up to 33 percent, from its 28,873 top to around 19,500. Then Trump would easily argue for a full-out Fed monetary stimulus and a direct fiscal stimulus to consumers. We would get a final steep rally, where I would predict that the leading tech stocks in the NASDAQ would make a new high, but the broader indices, like the Dow and S&P 500, wouldn’t. Then that would signal a top and I would then expect that 42+ percent crash.

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He doesn't agree with the gold bugs, and neither do I. Fed has been trying to inflate since 2001 and hasn't been successful. Why do they they think it will happen now with an aging baby boom generation and a younger generation that only cares about retiring at age 35?

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I’m predicting that as the next crisis gets worse into 2021–22, the dollar will go up another 20–25 percent from here, but it may correct a bit first into 2020. That would be the time to buy. First of all, gold’s going to fall. It’s going to fall to around $700 at worst or a new low around $1,000 at best in this next crash, by 2022 or so. Gold will keep falling, because it’s a hedge against inflation, not against deflation.

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Cycles say we're topping right now. Last I read of his non-free stuff, he called for a bottom in April, then a top in October-December, but that we wouldn't make new highs. This was all late February, well before people started to get helicopter money.

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With its “zombie” public companies and small-business failures, the U.S. economy is “dead,” and a second stimulus won’t revive it. “The crisis ahead of us is a big detox of the biggest financial drug stimulus in history,” he warns.

The stock market will bottom late in 2022 or early 2023, he predicts. It will be “the lowest stock market of our lifetime.”

You-know-what hits the fan around December 2022. The cycles I look at point to our seeing the lowest stock market of our lifetime then, give or take. If you buy stocks at that time, you’ll never see those lows again.

As long as this market goes up and quickly recovers, people don’t see much downside risk. That’s why the dumb money is jumping in and buying call options on 10 times leverage. They say, “How can you lose? Buy in this market. If it goes down, the Fed just drives it right back up.” And that’s what they’ve done.

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https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2020/12...-already-dead/