Hi Glad to have found TSP talk. Have viewed for weeks now and just joined. great site and look forward to learning how to increase my earnings. Great site!! :)
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Hi Glad to have found TSP talk. Have viewed for weeks now and just joined. great site and look forward to learning how to increase my earnings. Great site!! :)
Welcome Annie !!
Read, read, read... but not my thread, I just rant ;)
Welcome to the Forum DA [good song]. Best of luck with your investments.:D
Norman
Welcome Annie! :)
Thanks for welcome post! definitely reading your posts. :)
Thanks for welcome!
Welcome to forum, glad to have you here :)
Welcome, Dreamboat Annie! In addition to the other comments I recommend exploring all of the different corners of this site. Tom has put a very useful and comprehensive site together here. After more than 3 years here I'm still finding new (to me) useful places.
Welcome!
DreamboatAnnie.
Lemme Guess you like 70's Classic Rock, right? Like "Heart"? :toung:
Welcome to the forum and good luck!
Welcome! Only advice I can give other than what has already been said is, don't let the comments here offend you or overly sway you when you are making money decisions. If you let the comments affect the way you are thinking then you're more apt to make poor, spur of the moment, choices.
Good luck!!!
Thanks for joining us! Good luck!
Fab1 it is interesting that you say that... bet you couldn't tell from the name! Hee hee haa haa.. yes I have now just decided that I do like Heart! Got tickets but could only get the premium meet and greet in Kansas City so will be visiting there in a few months to attend with a few friends. Just love Ann's voice and Nancy's guitar playing. Inducted into Hall of Fame this year and they will be doing a 30 minute Led Zeppelin encore with Bonham's son. Hoping it will be good. I know they will be.... figured I better see them as I've not seen them before and they are getting a little older---like me but I am younger!!! And surely young at hear! Check out the boat pic. Eventually I will do something... like jump into market but not just yet. I am taking Mcqlives advice. Actually i invested lots last year in S and C and got out in late December. Not afraid of sequester but ramifications of Obamacare on businesses and then that effect on markets. But would seem that effect will not hit for a while as long as Bernanke keeps printing money... sounds like we are in a bubble full of that new money!
You should enjoy BOTH they are Fantistic, wish I could. AND they have to quit printing money or it IS the end!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100755516
Article on what to expect from today's testimony to Congress today ..by Bernanke.
http://www.marketwatch.com/column/asia-stocks-to-wa - interesting article on Chinese company stocks in US market. not sure how this affects overall market if they pull out.
bummed to see that market / Dow continues to go down after fed comments but surely as Bt said it is program trading and I don't know what that is. However still feel market will bounce back up .. at least short term. and At least enough to get out with something as I joined the game so late. Thought I had prematurely took too much off table a week ago but appears not... But will see .. Think market will go up more before EOM. Wish i had more IFT. that really sucks! at 85G/15S..very conservative. think I will stay in just to see. Looking at bollingers, relative strength and MACD. MACD lines came together so looks like market can go either way. rSI dropped a bit to 60. candle with wick down and nothing up so moving downward seems more probable and hit 20 day EMA. So looks like going down more . Only thing that seems promising is overall bull market and that. BB looks to be contracting upward. So in a week or two maybe set up another higher rally??? Keeping an eye on it.
The powers that be cannot push this market higher without reloading from time to time. Liquidity remains strong, but has fallen off enough over the past couple of trading days to allow selling pressure to take prices lower. There are very good odds that this is once again a temporary decline before a continuation of the bull market. There are more moving parts than this, such as sentiment and options set-ups, but this market is more about liquidity than anything else right now. And until that changes, we are likely resolving higher.
I was only pointing out some of the layers of this onion we call a market that can influence price action. :) I don't monitor options that closely myself as I try to trade in intermediate term time frames, but I know that the daily action can affect our longer term perspective if we don't keep things in context. Context for me means to focus on the intermediate term and try not to let day to day action effect that perspective too much. Of course, if one is trading on a day to day basis this kind of information may become more centric to how they execute their trades.
Liquidity is something most folks only hear about in the mainstream media. But it's not an easy thing to quantify as it's kept at a relatively high level in terms of information that's available to the general masses. Many traders think Permanent Market Open Operations (POMO) are the only measure of how liquidity expands and contracts in the open market, but I don't think that's true. Marty Chenard at Stocktiming.com has a proprietary method of determining liquidity action and I can tell by his charts that POMO alone cannot be the sole source of his methodology. Even when POMO has been zero, his charting can show liquidity at something other than zero. I have also come to know that for quite some time there has been a high correlation between liquidity and market price action. A lot of traders and money managers recognize this too and like me they frame their market perspective accordingly.
Thanks for great info Coolhand! Spent a llot of time this weekend reading Chenard library of comments on Safehaven.com and also looked at his site plus read all I could on liquidity and a bit on options. Read a lot about Institutional liquidity and their moving in and out of market and how that impacts market.. Very interesting. Have not yet looked at POMO. Tried searches to figure out how liquidity is computed and saw how it is computed ...formulas...for individual stocks but I guess trick would be to not do all computations for entire indexes , etc... So he sells his charts on that but did not try to run numbers as I believe what you said about him using something else as well. Did seem to see correlation between his liquidity charts and MACD.. but really do not enough to say for sure.... saw that By reading some of his older posts... I believe around 2007. Was also interested in seeing what he was commenting in 2008 before first big drops. His site shows lots of big boys subscribed...impressive...so thinking about subscribing but not yet...too new to this.
Oh.. And I really like Bollinger bands but read somewhere that Bollinger bands measure volatility but not liquidity. but looks like BB combined with reviewing MACD and RSI and reviewing the 10, 20 and 50 EMA is giving me some good guidance along with reading yours and other's account talks. Now willtry reading Marty's commentary and that of TSP TALK of course along with all account talks daily...good use of lunch time and couch potato time! :)
Right now see BB contracting slightly as DOW goes higher but looks like it will come down. looking at that at a 3 month, 6 month, 1 year and 5 and 10 year. Market seems to be topping out...but not to say it would not go higher but agree it is ready for a correction. thinking to get out tomorrow ...I am already down to just 15 percent in S ....so not much at risk. Then can jump back in once I see better trend inBB/mACD/RSI ad MA's. Also noticed that I fund (EFA) BB is contracted...so now watching to see if it is headed for explosion up or down. MACD is not good at this point and candles running along lower band but look like they could go up. I am using Big charts.com to create charts because I use my iPad and cannot download charts program everyone here seems to use. In any case, thanks again!
Sounds like it became a homework assignment. :D
I'm glad you found it both interesting and meaningful.
Well I said I would get out on Wednesday but just couldn't t bring myself to do it whilst it was going down. So at this point will wait to see... Market makes no sense... I thought Tuesday would be a sell off and Wednesday would be even... So my thinking is totally opposite of what is happening. Ugghhhh...
Looking to get out.... Friday????Hope it moves up some.
Annie, If you would like a copy of my excel spreadsheet send me a PM with your email. You can keep track of your daily ups and downs. Hopefully more ups.
Marty
Hi Marty!! Would love a copy. Will send when I get home... yuck... still at work. Thanks for the offer!! Don't laugh.. I was going to ask you, "what is a PM" and then thought to look at my profile and saw "private message"... so new to this ... I'm still cracking up about that.. :) Bye for now!
Well. Have decided strategy will be to enter and exit market by relying more on MACD as indicator while also considering Bollinger bands and candles/prices. mACD definitely signals direction when positive line crosses negative line. Right now I have only15 s/ 85g but still see downward movement in Dow DWCPF index / S fund tracker so since I am loss there I am leaving it for now to not lock in that loss and since yesterday was positive I am figuring its possible it may go back inti an upswing. so waiting for entry point. The bb on bonds is still downward but looks like it could hit bottom and be nearing time to buy.???? But I am just guessing. In any case will try this for next few months.
Good upswing today onDow. I'm still at 15S / 85G but want to move more in to S. Now looks like getting close to good entry but will wait for more definite signs. Chart for Dow/sS fund looking better. BBs contracted so it looks like prices are ready to shoot up or down. Waiting for MACD to cross to positive side and for prices looking to move upward. C fund / S&P 500 looks like S.
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com
Also looks like F fund could be seeing better days but still looks to be headed south. Watching it daily. Still moving in general downward on BB lower band but MACD looks like it could cross to positive for a buy signal later this month???i Waiting..waiting...
iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF, AGG Advanced Chart - (NAR) AGG, iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com
I fund looks it is continuing downward along lower BB band and not contracted so its just chugging along. Last couplebdays have up in price but MACD lines are still well apart and in negative territory. Watching...
iShares Trust MSCI EAFE Index Fund, EFA Advanced Chart - (NAR) EFA, iShares Trust MSCI EAFE Index Fund Stock Price - BigCharts.com
Still so new to this. Please ..if someone sees flaw in charts or logic, would appreciate our comments.Thx Annie :)
I fund is lagging C and S by 10%....plenty of room on the upside for I...as someone says..."golden prices"
Hi rcknfrewld! Thanks for comment. Had not thought of pricing in relation to the other funds. Would like to take advantage of low prices. Now would then be a good time for buy in and so looking at that. Like thought of going more into market this coming week. Will likely do mix of I, S, And C.
So my strategy to only enter market when MACD has a positive signal line did not materialize. But that is not the case now.
I am now looking at PMO, MACD, daily prices, and BBs.
I believe the "I" Fund and Bonds crossed into positive MACD territory yesterday and day before respectively. Waiting for word from "Mr. B" to see what he says and impact on market. Then will move forward with planned IFTs if they are not negatively impacted by whatever he says. The S and C (with C being closest) look like they are very close to getting into the positive MACD but not yet and S&P BBs look like they are constricting. Would be nice to make all moves this week with just one IFT. Will see......
Just continues to seem weird that the bonds are moving with the stocks. I should think something has to give here.
Strategy: Listen to everything, review BB's daily prices, and only do an IFT when MACD goes to positive to move in and negative to indicate exit point. Watch BB's for constriction to attempt to identify possible quick up/down swings. While I may be very wrong, this is the only strategy I have and playing conservative until I get more confidence in method.
Went 100% to G today...what a crazy week!
your avatar reminds me of a painting I have on my wall...."a sailboat in the moonlight"...your picture is the opposite of mine, or vice versa...when i figure out how to post pictures i'll send it your way
Dang it! I missed the entry by a few days. I could see the entry but held out. Too chicken! I guess when I finally jump in everyone will be jumping off! So sadly waiting for another entry point ... But I fund looks like it could be a slow go..... Ugh... Arrrrgh again!
Interesting article on Fed interest rates and Bernanke and future scenarios for market.Musings on Markets: The Fed and Interest Rates: Lessons from Oz
One more interesting article about Fed policy. History and Fed failings. This one indicates current policies not helpful to market in long run. Comparison to Great depression.
Bernanke's Comment | Doug Noland | Safehaven.com
Bernanke Humphrey Hawkins Preview - Business Insider what bernanke expected to say.
Help! Would someone direct me on how to upload a spreadsheet? Size limits or must they be shared via private email? Trying to post analysis to TSP Millionaires thread.