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Thread: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

  1. #217

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    Default Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    The people in some hospitals that report numbers don't work on Saturday or Sunday.
    Tuesday's numbers should be back up. Past Sundays have all been below the Saturday counts. The bounce back up on Mondays.
    Looks like we called that. New York has already reported more deaths today (599) than they did all of yesterday (594), and its only 1pm.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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  3. #218

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    Default Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Also, the market last Monday was up after a similar Sunday (death numbers dropped), then dropped for 2 days. We are up today, possibly because of the low numbers yesterday. If hospitals continue to report lower numbers this coming Sunday, we could see the same thing in the market next Monday. This presents a potentially profitable IFT scenario where we IFT in on Friday and out on Monday to catch that 1 day gain. Hmm...

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  5. #219

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    Default Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu View Post
    Also, the market last Monday was up after a similar Sunday (death numbers dropped), then dropped for 2 days. We are up today, possibly because of the low numbers yesterday. If hospitals continue to report lower numbers this coming Sunday, we could see the same thing in the market next Monday. This presents a potentially profitable IFT scenario where we IFT in on Friday and out on Monday to catch that 1 day gain. Hmm...
    If it is a pattern you only have one shot to be all in and then all out (2 IFT's) Pretty good roll of the dice.
    May the force be with us.

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  7. #220

    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    I've actually been watching and noticed the same pattern for case reporting. I'm considering going short on the market later today as the odds seem to favor another turn south for turn-around-Tuesday.

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  9. #221

    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by blueroadster View Post
    I've actually been watching and noticed the same pattern for case reporting. I'm considering going short on the market later today as the odds seem to favor another turn south for turn-around-Tuesday.
    Decided to roll the dice. Order for 6k shares of SPXU @ 21.75 has been filled.

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  11. #222

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    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by blueroadster View Post
    Decided to roll the dice. Order for 6k shares of SPXU @ 21.75 has been filled.
    This is what we've come to.

    Betting on whether tomorrow's dead body count goes up enough to spook the stock market.

    Sigh...

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  13. #223

    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    This is what we've come to.

    Betting on whether tomorrow's dead body count goes up enough to spook the stock market.

    Sigh...
    No, more just noticing a news pattern and with the big jump today, I decided to roll the dice for turn-around-Tuesday and dip my toes in. Earning season reports start next week also and I can't imagine things will be rosy. For example, Disney is hemorrhaging daily and there have been reports of Apple potentially using their hoard of cash to buy at a discount at some point.

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  15. #224

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    Default Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]

    A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51%
    chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway" [source]
    [source]

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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  17. #225

    Default Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Very unfortunate but not surprising. Several of my family members are funderal directors with kids at home. When having to do pick ups, they keep asking about cause of death and many doctors refuse to say referencing HIPAA regulations even though release of cause of death information to funeral directors is allowed. They also have to secure their own PPE.

    Additionally, I am sure many families are learning/confirming that certain relatives are from the village. I've seen that in younger couples in our extended family. Even with stay at home orders in place, one young couple (with kids) decided it would be fine to visit a parent and sibling that are infected and recovering at their house. Most of us tried as best as we could to convince them to just stay home, be smart and not risk exposure to others. Their response...We considered/discussed the risks extensively, prayed to God for safe travel and have faith. Idiots...


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  19. #226

    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    In depth first hand account of having 'moderate' coronavirus by Paula Pant. Just FYI:

    https://affordanything.com/i-tested-...r-coronavirus/

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  21. #227

    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by k0nkuzh0n View Post
    so their model is predicting deaths per day to peak between April 10th and April 22nd, with a target of April 16th. Seems reasonable, although I think an upper target of April 22nd is kinda low.

    Note that the data for the past 2 days doesn't really fit their curve. I assume they will adjust this day?
    Was updated on April 5th, and again today, April 8th.

    Now its predicting a peak on April 12th. Total deaths projected at ~60k (31k to 127k). I think the Update on April 5th was to ~80k, and prior to April 5th it was ~93k but I can't remember.

    COVID-19
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  23. #228

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    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Model shows my state supposedly peaked yesterday-

    Unfortunately, we're all still going to be in lockdown for some time.

    Lost a third person I know last night. College roommate's Dad had been on a ventilator for 11 days. He didn't make it.
    The other two died over the weekend. One had been sick a week. The other one, less than a full day- She was 60.

    This thing isn't going to stop killing large numbers of people any time soon.

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