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Thread: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

  1. #157

    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    Can you show us the S&P500 return for that time period? Let’s call it May1 ‘09 to May 1, 2010. What did that look like?
    Tom
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  3. #158

    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    It's interesting to go back and read the posts from the Swine Flu thread from 2009...

    https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/news-and-...swine-flu.html
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  5. #159

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    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Good opinions not political.
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  7. Default Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Not to diminish the seriousness of Covid-19 or it's potential that is still possible, but here are this season's flu numbers vs. the Coronavirus in the USA from the CDC, just as a comparison so far. The flu season is winding down while Covid-19 is still in full force so these numbers will obviously change in the coming weeks.
    I truly wish that this was a valid comparison, but sadly I do not think that it is. The death toll in Italy just topped 10,000... Don’t underestimate this monster, this is different...

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  9. #161

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    Default Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by StockSurfer View Post
    I truly wish that this was a valid comparison, but sadly I do not think that it is. The death toll in Italy just topped 10,000... Don’t underestimate this monster, this is different...
    Older population eating tons of carbs is a recipe for disaster. And that goes for any virus.

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  11. #162

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    Default Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by Intrepid_Timer View Post
    Older population eating tons of carbs is a recipe for disaster. And that goes for any virus.
    https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S...328-5/fulltext

    "We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively, using the Goldstein index. The average annual mortality excess rate per 100,000 ranged from 11.6 to 41.2 with most of the influenza-associated deaths per year registered among the elderly. However children less than 5 years old also reported a relevant influenza attributable excess death rate in the 2014/15 and 2016/17 seasons (1.05/100,000 and 1.54/100,000 respectively)."


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  13. #163

    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Progress hopefully.

    The FDA has approved emergency use of a new coronavirus test that delivers positive results in 5 minutes and negative results in 13


    https://news.yahoo.com/fda-approved-...155923129.html

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  15. #164

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    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu View Post
    Great stuff James, thanks. Where did you find the mortality rate of those on ventilators vs those that aren't but need one (1% to 6%)? That is terrifying for New York, where they will probably be in this situation within the next few days if not already.
    That was in a paper I read a couple of days ago about Italy; and also part of the daily briefings I get from Dr. John Campbell on Youtube. Campbell is a U.K. Nursing instructor who does a daily world-wide report on new data, who is trying what to fight the virus, and what seems to be working and what is not. I highly recommend subscribing to his YouTube channel and spending 20 minutes a day listening to his daily reports.

    Here is today’s:

    https://youtu.be/dsce2GLH_Dw
    Good stuff



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  17. #165

    Default Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    So from that site, here is the graph
    gr1.jpg
    "Total number of specimens, number of positive specimens for influenza and ILI cases (per 1,000 per inhabitants) by week and season. Italy, 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17 season."

    Few things to get from this. One, there are more influenza like illnesses that did NOT test positive for influenza, than there are that tested positive. Coronavirus would actually be classified as an ILI. Two, these numbers are cases in a week; Notice it peaks at 1600 cases in a week. Coronavirus is doing 6000+ a DAY in Italy.


    Quote Originally Posted by Intrepid_Timer View Post
    https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S...328-5/fulltext

    "We estimated excess deaths of 7,027, 20,259, 15,801 and 24,981 attributable to influenza epidemics in the 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17, respectively, using the Goldstein index. The average annual mortality excess rate per 100,000 ranged from 11.6 to 41.2 with most of the influenza-associated deaths per year registered among the elderly. However children less than 5 years old also reported a relevant influenza attributable excess death rate in the 2014/15 and 2016/17 seasons (1.05/100,000 and 1.54/100,000 respectively)."
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  19. #166

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    Default Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by k0nkuzh0n View Post
    So from that site, here is the graph
    gr1.jpg
    "Total number of specimens, number of positive specimens for influenza and ILI cases (per 1,000 per inhabitants) by week and season. Italy, 2013/14, 2014/15, 2015/16 and 2016/17 season."

    Few things to get from this. One, there are more influenza like illnesses that did NOT test positive for influenza, than there are that tested positive. Coronavirus would actually be classified as an ILI. Two, these numbers are cases in a week; Notice it peaks at 1600 cases in a week. Coronavirus is doing 6000+ a DAY in Italy.
    We had 19.4K new cases in the US yesterday, and on pace to surpass that today. # of new cases per day is doubling every 3-5 days. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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  21. #167

    Default Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Fully aware. I posted the worldometer site to this thread over a month ago. I've been following this stuff since mid January, checking several websites several times a day. But the post I responded to was talking about Italy.
    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu View Post
    We had 19.4K new cases in the US yesterday, and on pace to surpass that today. # of new cases per day is doubling every 3-5 days. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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  23. #168

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    Default Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Turn off the News & come play poker tonight

    Quote Originally Posted by k0nkuzh0n View Post
    Fully aware. I posted the worldometer site to this thread over a month ago. I've been following this stuff since mid January, checking several websites several times a day. But the post I responded to was talking about Italy.

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