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Thread: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

  1. #145

    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    We crossed 500k today. Testing ramped up quite a bit in the past week, it became quite clear we would cross the mark sooner rather than later.

    I'm expecting growth to be more linear than exponential as testing rates are likely saturated, unless there are a lot of new countries that ramp up testing. Currently, Italy, USA, Spain, and Germany are adding a majority of the new cases. Several countries in Europe seem to be ramping up in cases.

    Italy seems to have peaked in terms of per-day rates, but definitely hasn't gotten better, as it remains above 600 deaths per day.

    We are currently adding around 50k cases per day world wide, and its increasing. Which would suggest we will reach 1 million in 7-14 days. Seems pretty hard to believe though.


    Quote Originally Posted by k0nkuzh0n View Post
    Confirmed. Italy passed China today in total deaths. with almost half the cases (41k vs 81k)... Hopefully they peak real soon.

    Next up is we could hit 500k cases world wide in the next week or 2.
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  3. #146

    Default Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    yikes, Italy set a new high for deaths in a day with 919. Previous high was 793 on March 21st.
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  5. #147

    Default Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Not to diminish the seriousness of Covid-19 or it's potential that is still possible, but here are this season's flu numbers vs. the Coronavirus in the USA from the CDC, just as a comparison so far. The flu season is winding down while Covid-19 is still in full force so these numbers will obviously change in the coming weeks.

    CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 39 million flu illnesses, 400,000 hospitalizations and 24,000 deaths from flu.

    Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
    COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*Total cases: 85,356

    Total deaths: 1,246

    Jurisdictions reporting cases: 54 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)

    Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

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  7. #148

    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Tom whats the point in comparing it to the flu? And why are the flu numbers always 'estimates' ?

    If those 24k "estimated" deaths are over just 6 months (oct, nov, dec, jan, feb, march) that's 133 deaths a day. If its over 12 months, that's 66 a day.

    Coronavirus just in the US is now killing 300 a day, and increasing every day... and that's with drastic measures and everything shut down. Imagine if things weren't.
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  9. #149

    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by k0nkuzh0n View Post
    Tom whats the point in comparing it to the flu?
    What should we compare it to... the Swine flu of 2009 - 2010? 60.8 million cases, no economic disaster.

    This virus was designated as influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

    From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html

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  11. #150

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    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by k0nkuzh0n View Post
    James did you just post images from a top secret meeting? wtf?
    The President tweeted those photos at the time.


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  13. #151

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    Default 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by rangerray View Post
    According to various news reports and statements from the President and Vice-President themselves (and asof yester, the Governor of New York), enough companies are voluntarily stepping up to manufacture these items, albeit a little behind the curve. According to these sources, no "order" is needed, but they have reserved the authority to do so.
    Fact: The Governor of New York is saying he needs 30,000 ventilators immediately or people will needlessly die.

    Fact: Ford Motor company is scrambling engineering resources to look now to see if they can develop/design a ventilator that meets requirements. No date as to when a design may be finished, and it can be presented for certification to the FDA, or can begin production.

    Fact: General Motors engineers have teamed with a Washington State Ventilator company, and several of its own suppliers, and believes it can begin production in as little as three weeks, and estimates it can produce at a rate of 6,000 units a month by the end of April. (2,000 units by the end of April, and then 6,000 a month moving forward. 1,000 UAW members have volunteered to work production.

    The current best estimate of the need, nationwide, by May 1, will be on the order of 300,000 ventilators. Production from all sources is expected to range from 5,000 to 10,000 units by May 1.



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  15. #152

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    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    What should we compare it to... the Swine flu of 2009 - 2010? 60.8 million cases, no economic disaster.


    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html
    Quick question for you, Tom. So, you are correct, Swine Flu in 2009-2010 did hit 60 million people in the US. That’s about 20% of the population over the course of the year. Can you show us the S&P500 return for that time period? Let’s call it May1 ‘09 to May 1, 2010. What did that look like?

    And then compare then to now. That one was 20% of the population, AND there was a vaccine already available for it. The death rate was 0.1% of those who got it.

    This one is forecast to affect UP TO 60% of the population, (200 million), (depends on control over the next 2-6 months), there is NO treatment, and NO vaccine, and it’s death rate seems to be from 10 to 16 times higher, IF there is adequate medical treatment available. (5% will need ventilators, and data shows about 1.0% to 1.6% die over 8-14 weeks). Without ventilators, that number jumps from 1% to about 6% of those who catch it, dying.

    We have 500,000 known confirmed cases now. That works out to: a known need of about 25,000 ventilators will be needed just based on the number of people who have already tested positive. The numbers are climbing, and we are already experiencing overloaded ICU’s now.

    This disaster is orders of magnitude more serious than the Swine Flu of 2009.




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  17. #153

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    Default 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    We are here:

    The vertical red line is about today’s date.

    The black horizontal line is the total ICU bed capacity in the USA with ventilators.

    The red peak is if we do nothing to stem the tide of what is hitting now.

    The orange peak is what the number of sick will do if we just “social distance “, and don’t actually shut down and lock in place.

    By April 15, if we “Do nothing”, we cross the line and doom thousands to death.

    IMG_6972.JPG

    This is why we need “Shut downs”, and “stay in place” orders across the country- to give medicine a chance to be developed, before we doom hundreds of thousands to unnecessary deaths.

    Even with “social distancing” it still won’t be enough to prevent disaster. We will still “peak” far above the medical systems ability to care for those with breathing difficulties.

    IMG_6976.JPG

    The facts are that we will need a lockdown until:
    1. Testing is widely available and being used. That includes Antibody tests, which are still in development.

    2. We have been able to test enough to identify those who have already had the disease( through antibody tests that should become available in a month or two.) Those who have already had the disease are no longer vulnerable, and can go back to work.

    3. Once a vaccine is available (next year or 18 months we hope), then we can vaccinate, and those can go back to work.

    It’s going to be a while. At LEAST late summer or early fall to reach the point of falling deaths and cases.

    .
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    Last edited by James48843; 03-28-2020 at 01:08 AM.


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  19. #154

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    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Great stuff James, thanks. Where did you find the mortality rate of those on ventilators vs those that aren't but need one (1% to 6%)? That is terrifying for New York, where they will probably be in this situation within the next few days if not already.

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  21. #155

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    Default Re: COVID-19; was 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Not to diminish the seriousness of Covid-19 or it's potential that is still possible, but here are this season's flu numbers vs. the Coronavirus in the USA from the CDC, just as a comparison so far. The flu season is winding down while Covid-19 is still in full force so these numbers will obviously change in the coming weeks.
    COVID-19 is killing far more people per day now than the flu, and its growing rapidly. Just look at the daily deaths over the last week:

    21 March: 46
    22 March: 113
    23 March: 141
    24 March: 225
    25 March: 247
    26 March: 268
    27 March: 401

    And as James mentioned, this is going to get even uglier as we run out of ventilators, which is probably happening right now or within the next few days in New York.

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  23. #156

    Default Re: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

    Thought this article was pretty good, talking about the different strains and how they can be used to track the spread
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...on/5080571002/

    reference for the article:
    https://nextstrain.org/ncov
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