Results 1 to 11 of 11

Thread: Rough week ahead?

  1. #1

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    14,035
    Blog Entries
    11

    Default Rough week ahead?

    So I have been watching the world markets, and here , on Sunday evening, things are shaping up to be pretty crazy this coming week. Markets don’t like uncertainty, and boy, do we have a lot of balls flying around right now.

    In the USA, a potentially slowing economy, and rising interest rates set the backdrop to everything. That alone would be enough to begin to question our direction. But there is a whole lot more building in for consideration this coming week.

    The news on Friday that the US Justice Department recognizes multiple felonies by “individual -1” is shocking, for starters. It means that things are potentially much less stable ahead.

    Add to that, multiple companies reporting lower expectations moving forward; a sagging auto sales picture with plant closings back in the news.

    In Europe, France is on fire and it’s affecting the retail economy there.

    Britain is supposed to vote on a Brexit on Tuesday, and it now looks as if the votes may not be there in Parliament, meaning the UK government could fall by Tuesday night. At best it will be an uncomfortable Brexit, at worst it could mean the collapse of May’s term as Prime Minister and a hard Brexit and damage to their nation.

    We still are having problems in Asia, tariff wars with China; and we are shut out of the TPP deal that many are continuing to work towards.

    And NAFTA is to be replaced with a new agreement that nobody has details on yet, and the whole dynamic in Washington is about to change, with hearings, etc.

    Wake me up when the world settles down a bit. I’m thinking we’ve got at least 10% downside more to go before we find a rally point.

    Good luck!



    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums


  2.  
  3. #2

    Default Re: Rough week ahead?

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    So I have been watching the world markets, and here , on Sunday evening, things are shaping up to be pretty crazy this coming week. Markets don’t like uncertainty, and boy, do we have a lot of balls flying around right now.

    In the USA, a potentially slowing economy, and rising interest rates set the backdrop to everything. That alone would be enough to begin to question our direction. But there is a whole lot more building in for consideration this coming week.

    The news on Friday that the US Justice Department recognizes multiple felonies by “individual -1” is shocking, for starters. It means that things are potentially much less stable ahead.

    Add to that, multiple companies reporting lower expectations moving forward; a sagging auto sales picture with plant closings back in the news.

    In Europe, France is on fire and it’s affecting the retail economy there.

    Britain is supposed to vote on a Brexit on Tuesday, and it now looks as if the votes may not be there in Parliament, meaning the UK government could fall by Tuesday night. At best it will be an uncomfortable Brexit, at worst it could mean the collapse of May’s term as Prime Minister and a hard Brexit and damage to their nation.

    We still are having problems in Asia, tariff wars with China; and we are shut out of the TPP deal that many are continuing to work towards.

    And NAFTA is to be replaced with a new agreement that nobody has details on yet, and the whole dynamic in Washington is about to change, with hearings, etc.

    Wake me up when the world settles down a bit. I’m thinking we’ve got at least 10% downside more to go before we find a rally point.

    Good luck!



    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
    When you put it that way, It sounds really bad! Charts seem to be pointing that way too. Glad I'm out at the moment. We have death crosses everywhere. I always like to see a good bottom or bounce before buying. Not there yet.
    100 G
    RSI - Relative Strength Indicator DMA - day moving average

  4.  
  5. #3

    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Virginia
    Posts
    642

    Default Re: Rough week ahead?

    Lots of concerns here about what could be a regular 10% correction. Last December wasn't so good and Santa didn't come until January.
    The biggest concern next week for me is the Brexit vote which may cause volatility but the UK are good allies and deserve to get rid of May because she is a twit and her deal with the EU is an awful deception.
    Then we have to wait to see what the FED does.
    We are lucky to live in such interesting times.

  6.  
  7. #4

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    14,035
    Blog Entries
    11

    Default Re: Rough week ahead?

    Dow futures drop 260 points as sell-off looks set to continue in new week
    Source: CNBC

    U.S. stock futures fell on Sunday night as traders feared an intensifying trade war between the United States and China.

    Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 260 points, implying a decline of 236.95 points at Monday's open. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also declined. The losses would add to a steep decline from last week.

    Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/09/dow-...-new-week.html


    Yup- we do live in interesting times. I’m going to jump back in at some point- but I haven’t seen ANY indications of a bottom yet. Watching for volume, hopelessness, gnashing of teeth. Haven’t seen any teeth yet.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

  8.  
  9. #5

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    14,035
    Blog Entries
    11

    Default Re: Rough week ahead?

    No Santa Rally this year.

    IMG_1565.JPG


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

  10.  
  11. #6

    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    Honolulu, Hawaii
    Posts
    1,800

    Default Re: Rough week ahead?

    Well there does seem to be a hard floor in the S&P at 2630. Only thing though is it's hard to tell when the rug is getting pulled next time. Frustrating to make moves in the TSP because of the delay. I'm seriously going to start looking into options if rolling my TSP into an IRA on eTrade will be possible or something.
    I trade based on volume + price action. Price action alone only tells half the story.

  12.  
  13. #7

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    14,035
    Blog Entries
    11

    Default Re: Rough week ahead?

    News Flash-

    Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May announces a delay in the Brexit vote in Parliament.

    That ought to shake up financial markets across Europe tomorrow.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

  14.  
  15. #8

    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    Honolulu, Hawaii
    Posts
    1,800

    Default Re: Rough week ahead?

    kick the can. that seems to be the financial policy for everything these days.
    I trade based on volume + price action. Price action alone only tells half the story.

  16.  
  17. #9

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    14,035
    Blog Entries
    11

    Default Re: Rough week ahead?

    As of 2am, futures markets are all back in the red.

    IMG_1783.JPG


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums


  18.  
  19. #10

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    14,035
    Blog Entries
    11

    Default Re: Rough week ahead?

    Interesting day. I like that things held in positive territory.

    Britain’s T. May survived her “no confidence” vote today too. So that critical moment is behind us.

    National Enquirer admitted to violating campaign finance law- so now THAT throws more certainty on the rest of the week- we should see more discussion soon on that aspect.

    Overall, I’d say the majority of the general market uncertainty of last weekend is clearing out. Perhaps a good time to reassess?


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

  20.  
  21. #11

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    14,035
    Blog Entries
    11

    Default Re: Rough week ahead?

    Tomorrow is going to be very, very telling.

    On the S&P 500, IF we drop more than about 12 points tomorrow, we are in big trouble. The next floor/resistance is about 12 points below where we are at. And if that doesn’t hold, then I’m seeing a LONG drop before the next floor/stop again.


    On the “S” fund chart ($EMW)- I’m seeing we are RIGHT UP AGAINST a level right now. If it breaks downward tomorrow, that will move us from “correction” to “BEAR” on the P&F chart.

    Take a look- we are about to punch through the blue upward slope, and it will turn blood red instead, IF tomorrow is negative.

    IMG_1838.JPG


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

  22.  

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
Rough week ahead?
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
Rough week ahead?
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
Rough week ahead?
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)
Rough week ahead?
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes