It would be much easier to trust the market if we had a third or fourth IFT for the month.
Hang in there man! I totally am with you so your not alone. I am still kicking myself for not getting back in with my 2nd move late July. Saw the rounded bottom on the S&P and figured it would move up and it did. Hindsight lol. Can't live in the past. Today is a new opportunity. Not saying you have to do anything today just saying today is a new day.
Tom had great comments in his article this morning, things I had wanted to post several times this week but time and distractions prevented me from doing so, concerning FOMO and climbing the wall of worry. I think that is the phase we are in right now. Fund managers pushed the markets up into FOMC meeting and rate decision and it is still climbing. I think they have pulled enough individual investors in that any day now this will pull back. Not saying a crash and not saying we even go down to test the previous lows, although I am still thinking we do. Maybe I'm in the minority and that's ok. Just my opinion though. Still I want to trade where I can.
With what appears as the NASDAQ leading the way maybe we do keep churning higher, the double top seems to be being ignored on the NDQ. HYG leading as well. There are double tops elsewhere too so maybe we make the attempt but fail to push through. IDK. That S fund looked like it was forming an F flag and thought maybe we would see some consolidation over a few days before trading down to the rising 18 day, obviously not much of a sell off with it rising, but still thought maybe we would see that. I am not so sure now. I thought we'd trade down to it though before bouncing up to that double top. Not getting hung up on the DT's but they tend to sell back down, not always. Just was looking for a potential dip toes entry using that set up but think I'm wrong. Perhaps I'll wait until next week and see where we are. As been mentioned seasonality hasn't always been a good time of the year. But markets do the opposite of what we think so maybe we should just roll with it lol.
Someone recently told me to trust the market but it's very hard to do in a bear market, especially off the rallies. Some think we've seen the bottom and some think this rally is a sign that has happened. They could be right. But we still should try to be wise in our trading and not just doing something off emotion or because someone told us to. Trust what you see I suppose but do it with caution. Understanding things can change on a dime. The VIX is bouncing a tiny bit this morning, not sure it means much in a day but if we see things turn into a higher bounce, markets sell off more, maybe next week we see this turn and come back down. There may be your opportunity.
It would be much easier to trust the market if we had a third or fourth IFT for the month.
May the force be with us.
The jobs report comes out tomorrow. Let's see what tomorrow brings. If Friday looks good and it carries through Monday as well, I may actually move in a small percentage in.
Thanks for the words of encouragement!
Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS
Weatherweenie's Account Talk
Teddy Roosevelt: Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official. Retired on November 30, 2023 with 30+ years of service.
So with the blow out number, why is the market tanking. Good grief.
Weatherweenie's Account Talk
Teddy Roosevelt: Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official. Retired on November 30, 2023 with 30+ years of service.
Just a guess here but market didn't like it because the job increase means Fed will need to continue to raise rates most likely into 2023. Raising rates pushes prices down to curb inflation. Not sure where we end up today and where we go next week. A little digestion of this news and all the market analysis you can handle today could take the markets in the opposite direction. Who knows.
Perhaps the recession topic is back on the table for those who thought we were not going into one. Personally I don't think we are there, yet. Get out the popcorn lol.
Great points!!
The FED may look at this come September and think "We're just not doing enough. Lets go with a full 1% increase this time".
Agree. Good news on jobs is bad news to market due to increased risk that Fed will increase rates more to curb inflation and the higher risk of Fed over-compensating, raising rates too much or too quickly and pushing economy into deeper recession. It's always something!
Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410
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