Thread: rangerray's Account Talk

I ran back to G yesterday at COB.


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This game is 'Tic-Tac-Toe' right now.

Lots of X's and O's in the air - most of them losers.

As stated in the documentary "Wargames" the only way to win is not to play.


Just find a nice safe allocation that you can sleep with. We are closing into the edge of a 'normal' market to the downside - as measured by the 'C-Fund'/'S&P500'. If the C-Fund declines by a point or so from last night's value we are moving into 2 Standard Deviation territory. If you have something in the market (C/S/I) than you will share in the early gains - which are generally large. If you are all out (G) you will not share. Swinging around, trying to time a bump, will increase your strikeout count and dump your average.

The real problem is that we cannot invest in anything that is holding. That is what happened in 2008. So far, this is not 2008 and I don't think it will be, but life can be hard. It is definitely time to overweight G and the F might have bottomed out. I have never invested in a time of economic contraction AND monetary inflation. We wanted this excitement (and fairness!!!) and we got it. GLHF.

Originally Posted by Boghie

This game is 'Tic-Tac-Toe' right now.

Lots of X's and O's in the air - most of them losers.

As stated in the documentary "Wargames" the only way to win is not to play.


Just find a nice safe allocation that you can sleep with. We are closing into the edge of a 'normal' market to the downside - as measured by the 'C-Fund'/'S&P500'. If the C-Fund declines by a point or so from last night's value we are moving into 2 Standard Deviation territory. If you have something in the market (C/S/I) than you will share in the early gains - which are generally large. If you are all out (G) you will not share. Swinging around, trying to time a bump, will increase your strikeout count and dump your average.

The real problem is that we cannot invest in anything that is holding. That is what happened in 2008. So far, this is not 2008 and I don't think it will be, but life can be hard. It is definitely time to overweight G and the F might have bottomed out. I have never invested in a time of economic contraction AND monetary inflation. We wanted this excitement (and fairness!!!) and we got it. GLHF.

Then again, you have done better than me!!!

I just cannot handle swinging though.

I don't find it sexy

You’re definitely right about the allocation percentages, but I still think a little good timing comes in handy. Hey, sometimes it works!


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

What taught me to keep a little bit in is, time after time, I would go to 100% G due to scary headlines, "experts" on CNBC, and my own misguided visions of everything crashing. Nearly every time I went 100% G it went right back up a few days to a week later and I'd be angry that I was missing out. Inevitably I'd be in 100% G after my 2 moves for the month so I had to sit there and watch it explode, definitely fomo. So now I always keep a little in, 20-30%. I can sleep at night and I don't have that feeling that it's gonna bounce soon and I'll miss it. Of course, watch this time the "big crash" will happen. I could live with the stupid noon cut off if we could get past the archaic 2 move's per month limitation. That stacks the cards against us and almost forces us to "stay in". It is a disservice to us all.

Anybody feeling the urge to buy the dip? This bear market action sure plays havoc with the emotions.

Originally Posted by rangerray

Anybody feeling the urge to buy the dip? This bear market action sure plays havoc with the emotions.

And, I'm not saying I'm thinking about it, I just feel the tug...For two years we were so used to buying the weakness. It's hard to shift gears.

Originally Posted by rangerray

Anybody feeling the urge to buy the dip? This bear market action sure plays havoc with the emotions.

Nope

Would rather watch other people play with their money

If you have something in C/S/I than you will share in the rebound gain, if you have nothing than you won't. But, the trend seems to be heading to the dumper. The mess doesn't look flushed yet. Give it time. Your something gain (if you have something in C/S/I) will outgain most of the folks - who are running 100% to the Lilly Pad. It will gain something while you cringe under the Lillies in fear and give you time to get your sticky pants on and start wading into the deeper parts of the pool. You don't want to stand up without your sticky pants!!!

One financial guy said this year 'whoever loses the least, wins.' I'm on the lilly pad, eating a 2% gain to a 3% loss, I'll probably be waiting this one out for a while.

Originally Posted by Whipsaw

One financial guy said this year 'whoever loses the least, wins.' I'm on the lilly pad, eating a 2% gain to a 3% loss, I'll probably be waiting this one out for a while.

Don't mean to make you/us feel bad...

But, your 2% gain on the Lilly Pad is a -6% loss to your purchasing power.

We cannot run from this. What a mess. But, at least it isn't a 30%+ loss to purchasing power like the SSSSsssssss Folks.

Nice close on the S Fund. Roundabout way of getting there.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS