Thread: rangerray's Account Talk

I’m not posting much, but I’m reading here no less than every day. I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed when it comes to financial stuff and will readily admit that the boom we went through in 2020/2021 after the pandemic emboldened me somewhat, and because of the massive gains in my account through that period, most days I convinced myself that I knew what I was doing.

I’m about $55,000 down since the first of the year, largely because I thought I knew what I was doing.

That said, with my luck running the way it is, I fully expect the biggest rally of the year now that our accounts are basically shut down.

I am not in despair, though. Just a little impatient and anxious. Happy days will come again!!


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

I feel the same way RangerRay. The volatility has been very difficult to navigate as we transitioned from bull to bear. Heck just recognizing the top was in late last year was not crystal clear to me but Des at Grok trade called the top in early January. Ira Epstein continues to state we will have big bear rallies followed by further drops with lots of volatility. I have never navigated a bear market, so I am all ears.

I have a bear strategy to try to profit off the bear rallies and stay in just a few days each month, but the start of this year was quicker moving than I thought it would be and lost quite a bit (9%). So at this point, I will try to be more patient and wait for a little more stability. I do think this current rally will be a strong one! But I just could not bring myself to enter without the ability to exit and just still not confident enough in market. FOMO but also will be fun to watch! Plenty of opportunities lie ahead.

Yes! The bottom line is that plenty of opportunities lie ahead!


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

I’m really tired of this slow motion grind lower. Perhaps by the time the market situation improves, the TSP will have worked most of the bugs out of the new system.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

lol-045[1].gif

This article made a couple of good points about what the labor market is saying in regards to whether we're in a recession or not.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/milli...155824972.html

"Indeed, according to Deutsche Bank’s analysis of recessions since 1939, the first month of a recession on average sees a decline in jobs. And we haven’t seen a decline in jobs since December 2020."

"For now, the strong labor market is keeping the economy from tipping into a recession."

We ARE either in recession or in a 0% growth pattern.

Companies and people do not want to invest in this environment. This is a choice we made...

One good thing is that the results of that choice are stark. We see them. What we see clearly we can fix. GLHF...

I haven't known what to do lately. I'm not really having to touch my TSP balance at the present, so I've just been sitting in the G Fund. I've been wanting to get in on some of these gains, but every day I feel like the bottoms gonna drop again. No use in chasing the market, but I've been saying that for many days.

Looking for guidance and enjoying the research everyone here is doing!

Originally Posted by rangerray

I haven't known what to do lately. I'm not really having to touch my TSP balance at the present, so I've just been sitting in the G Fund. I've been wanting to get in on some of these gains, but every day I feel like the bottoms gonna drop again. No use in chasing the market, but I've been saying that for many days.!

Hey Ray, don't feel bad. I think a lot of us are doing that exact same thing, including myself. I'm not use to Bear Market behavior, and I got smacked pretty hard in January, so I've been in G-Fund ever since.
Hit me once, shame on YOU....Hit me twice, shame on ME.
If I were still working (4 the Gov.) and didn't care so much, I'd be taking more chances with trying to catch some of these rallies, but that's just not the case and I'm not willing to risk it.
I try and educate myself as much as possible with what little time I have to do so, and there are quite a number of the Market Talking Heads who say that this is just a bear market rally and most likely will subside and the overall market will continue heading south on a downward trajectory. Until they feel differently, I'll just wait it out, but to each their own I guess.
August and September are the 2 worst months to be in stocks.
Walmart and other major retailers initiating large scale layoffs.
2 more rate hikes coming
Quantitative Easing in full swing
Prices and Inflation going through the roof
Hmmmmm.......lots to think about there...

Originally Posted by rangerray

I haven't known what to do lately. I'm not really having to touch my TSP balance at the present, so I've just been sitting in the G Fund. I've been wanting to get in on some of these gains, but every day I feel like the bottoms gonna drop again. No use in chasing the market, but I've been saying that for many days.

Looking for guidance and enjoying the research everyone here is doing!

Guidance: Don't be 100% out of the market.

I'm feeling a bit like you at only 30% in C/S/I. I've left money on the table with the recent upturn, but I have collected some of it. Also, I contribute only to C/S/I so that also increases my equity holdings.

I don't trust this market. It seems washy. I will wait till November and let the horrid months of September and October hit the rearview mirror. But, during that time I will have 1/3rd of my money making money if the market continues to recover - or, only take 1/3rd of the market loss (giving me time for other moves) if equities and bonds dump. I don't feel the need to 'get out' at this point if things drop 10% (my loss will be 2% - 3%), and I am recovering enough to be kinda happy if things gain 10% (my account will grow 3% - 4%).

Sometimes the market does as the market does. I haven't seen anything positive that should have turned it around. However, the fact that we reached a DEEP correction state might mean that the market actually corrected. That is a thing. There really doesn't need to be more than that to end a correction. I mean, that is kinda the definition - but we never really know when we hit that point. Hence, never be 100% out of the market. You want some of these 2% - 5% gains. Yummy

Like you I feel I've missed out on this upswing. I was 50% in C heading into it and decided to cut back to 20% thinking of the "sell the rally" in a bear market. So they fooled me once again. However I think another chance is coming. There appears to be an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming with the right shoulder about to form. Equity Clock talks about this today. The trend of manufacturers? orders in the US remains strong, but the pockets of strength below the surface highlight the areas to target within investment portfolios.
If that happens we should see some resistance and a drop from about here back to 4000 to complete the bottom of the right shoulder. Then, pattern-wise, it should improve
But I agree with Boghie in keeping 20 to 30% in at all times, which I've done all year. That way when the bear market rallies start you are recovering losses while you wait to see how definite the upswing is.