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Thread: bmneveu's Account Talk

  1. #1345

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    It's the fed selling back the treasuries they bought from everyone during the pandemic. The theory is that if a bank's "cash" can be replaced with treasuries again, they're draining liquidity from the system. However, that money the bank received after selling their bonds to the fed in the pandemic is probably invested somewhere else (loans) and not just sitting in cash. So whoever is buying up those bonds from the fed repo has to sell something to free up the cash to buy.

    If you look back on the SPX chart, there was a notable correction in February 2016 when the fed hit a previous record in their repurchases. There was actual talk of rising rates at the time too, and those did begin to step up in November 2016.

    Basically, it's a tough way to time the market and might be more useful in hindsight, but the chart will show exactly how much money is being "drained" from the system by federal reserve operations. Looks like they did around $10B today.

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  3. #1346

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    I'm looking at the dates of big reverse repos and comparing to the stock market. I don't see much of a correlation at all. That doesn't mean anything for the long term though, just that it doesn't seem to affect the market the day of or even week of. It could build up over time and have a big effect eventually though.

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  5. #1347

    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    Thank you for info Bmneveu. I would have thought it would impact market.
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  7. #1348

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    Bought SNAP for a short - medium term trade. I see a breakout of a consolidation period, targeting $80 within a few weeks.

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  9. #1349

    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    even though it doesn't affect prices of stocks day to day or week to week - doesn't it show a general weakens or strength of the market and the direction it is likely to head?

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  11. #1350

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    Bought some Zillow, and hopefully our TSP contributions for October landed today on the dip. That would be nice.


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  13. #1351

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu View Post
    hopefully our TSP contributions for October landed today on the dip. That would be nice.
    What do you mean by this? Doesn't everyone's biweekly TSP contributions and gov't match land in the TSP account on the Tuesday following the EFT pay day? Which would be tomorrow? Or does it vary? Or are some folks paid monthly?

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  15. #1352

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by flalaw97 View Post
    What do you mean by this? Doesn't everyone's biweekly TSP contributions and gov't match land in the TSP account on the Tuesday following the EFT pay day? Which would be tomorrow? Or does it vary? Or are some folks paid monthly?
    Nope...

    When I worked for the USMC I was paid on Fridays - TSP contributions occurred on that Thursday (the day before).
    Now I work for the Army National Guard and I am paid on Thursdays - and my TSP contributions occur on that Monday.

    Weird, but whatever.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  17. #1353

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    I am an active duty service member, so I guess it's different depending on employment type. My TSP contributions go in once a month, near the beginning. Its very rarely on the 1st though. Always seems to be the 2nd or 3rd, sometimes the 4th if a weekend is in there, which was the case this time.

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  19. #1354

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    Every strain of COVID has been a buying opportunity, jus' sayin'...

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  21. #1355

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    Large caps outperforming small caps again today. Already missed the deadline today but heavily considering switching from 100S to 100C tomorrow.

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  23. #1356

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    Default Re: bmneveu's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu View Post
    Large caps outperforming small caps again today. Already missed the deadline today but heavily considering switching from 100S to 100C tomorrow.
    IFT to 100C today.

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