Thread: bmneveu's Account Talk

Originally Posted by bmneveu

100% G COB today. Too much risk out there right now for me. Also looks like a short-medium term double top on the S&P 500 daily.

That double top on the S&P 500 chart suggests a 4310 target. With everything going on, I could see us easily dropping to that or even past it. I am staying out for now.

The C fund (large cap, more conservative stocks) outperformed the S fund (small cap, higher risk/reward) by nearly 9% over the last 2 months of 2021. That is a massive shift. It was the first time all year (and potentially longer, haven't looked further) that the C fund significantly* (more than ~1.2%) outperformed the S fund 2 months in a row.

Hindsight is 20/20 but we can see now that it was trying to tell us that something bad, or at least uncertainty, was probably coming.

Thoughts for this coming short week... I think we see stocks down, oil up, gold up, volatility up, and not sure on crypto.

I am in 100% G fund and long the VIX. I'd like to see the S&P 500 bounced off of 4310 or 4290 and head back up from there. If we see that area act as strong support, I'll will probably end my VIX position there and look to get my TSP back in.

Originally Posted by bmneveu

I'd like to see the S&P 500 bounced off of 4310 or 4290 and head back up from there.

Sitting near that 4290 support right now. Just in time for the president's speech that will either bounce us back up, or cut through the floor. We are hanging on his words right now.

Originally Posted by bmneveu

Sitting near that 4290 support right now. Just in time for the president's speech that will either bounce us back up, or cut through the floor. We are hanging on his words right now.

wow nevermind, that was quick, there she goes....

Originally Posted by bmneveu

Thoughts for this coming short week... I think we see stocks down, oil up, gold up, volatility up, and not sure on crypto.

I am in 100% G fund and long the VIX. I'd like to see the S&P 500 bounced off of 4310 or 4290 and head back up from there. If we see that area act as strong support, I'll will probably end my VIX position there and look to get my TSP back in.

Closed my VIX long for a nice gain. Unfortunately I used VXX as the vehicle, which has a pretty heavy decay, so that ate into profits. Still a nice trade though.

I am waiting for some kind of hint of positivity in the charts and/or Europe before moving my TSP money back in.

Let's all be glad we aren't invested in Russia's main stock index MOEX, which closed -33% today and was down as much as -45% at one point.

Originally Posted by bmneveu

Let's all be glad we aren't invested in Russia's main stock index MOEX, which closed -33% today and was down as much as -45% at one point.

That said, shorting their market or currency would have made a ton of money over the last couple days.

I just saw this too (YIKES) >>> https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/...ies-to-sell-fx

Russia hikes key rate to 20%, tells companies to sell FX

For what it's worth, the #1 account on the AutoTracker (cawwilson) just went all in 100% S Fund COB this past Friday 11 March.

Interesting, folks are estimating a bottom, jumping in... I'm considering a stop loss move out...