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Thread: Cactus' Account Talk

  1. #1

    Exclamation Cactus' Account Talk

    ### 2011 Personal Performance Report ###

    12/31/11: EOM. SC rally looks liked it worked. Going to hold steady (50:50 C:S) into Jan. The 1st of the month have been good to me.

    01/13/11< Trying the Intrepid Trader system, But got this first IFT notice (100% F) a day late. That hurt.

    01/19/11> I_T system change to S. Looks like F Fund was a mistake unless you caught it a day earlier. Did avoid some losses in CS though

    01/31/11: EOM. Disregarding I_T system notice to G because I think early Feb could be positive.

    02/04/11: EOW. Being in the market at the 1st of the month still seams to be working. Those 1st day gains are big more times than not. The SS is on a fresh buy next week so I think I'll stay the course in the S fund.

    02/11/11: EOW. Dow Transportation Index, was lagging badly. But after a 3-week correction and consolidation, it decided to break to the upside of the recent pennant formation. That's a very nice sign for the bulls. The SS is still on a buy next week. Egypt doesn't appear to be having much of an effect on the mkt. I think I'll stay the course in the S fund.

    02/18/11: EOW. Tough call. Made so much in Feb that I want to take profits. Fight those emotions -- they're not your friend. I'm worried about Iranian ships in Suez. Could bring world markets down. Egypt only produced a 2% one-day-dip in U.S. mkts though. The current trend is still up, the economic outlook is still good, and SS is on HOLD. I guess I'll ride out the pre & post holiday light trading in the S Fund and see what next week brings.

    02/25/11: EOW. Should have sold! I'm still in my "in a day too long" trend. Was thinking over the weekend of selling on Tuesday then buying in again before Mar. That's history now with Libya. Nothing to do now but hold the course. SS is on a buy for next week so I will stay in S. Will have to consider selling when it's on hold, though.

    02/28/11: EOM. Feb has been good to me overall (4.52%). I think Mar will be more of the same. I'm staying in to get that 1st-day-affect again and will stay the course in the S Fund in early Mar. Will look for a potential dip (Libya) towards the middle/end of the month. Will also check to see if I want to continue my 1st-day-in-market in April. Looking on towards Sell-in-May.

    03/04/11: EOW. Well that was a mistake. S Fund tanked (1.82%) on Mar 1. Ouch! Still managed to finish up for the week (0.31%) and so far for the month (0.09%). But I guess the 1st-day-of-month trend is broken. So is the steady upwards trend with only 1 to 2 day dips. Looks like volatility has returned to the market. That doesn't bother me as much as the unrest in the arab world and the effect Libya has had. What concernes me now is Saudi Arabia. What will happen when they get hit? I think it will really hit the fan!!! Yeah it will be news driven sell-offs, but the swings are going to be far greater than Libya. In fact, I bet it could trigger a real 10 - 15 % correction. OK, I'm letting my emotions get the better of me, but I think it could happen. Plus the last time I didn't act on my concerns (Iranian ships in suez) I lost out (granted due to Libya). We are past due for a real correction. Hmmm, SS is on hold for next week. I didn't like that last week. I think I will look for an exit this comming week and get out of the market for a much needed break. I'll look for a buying opportunity later in the month. This is no market for a buy and hold strategy. With this volatility it's time for Hit & Run or at most a Swing Trade strategy. Hopefully the downturn won't hit Monday. You know me and my in-the-market-a-day-too-long syndrom.

    03/11/11: EOW. Well that was a disaster. My only chance was Tue but that didn't recoup last week's losses so I didn't take it. Now I sit in the S Fund with all Feb gains wiped out. What do I do now? Don't know. Keep following the SS I guess. That was my main intent this year. It has essentially been leading me back into a Buy & Hold pattern. That wasn't my intent. Looks like it's leading us right down the tubes. I hope the SS still works.

    03/18/11: EOW. I don't know. I keep losing money but I feel we're at the bottom so I don't want to bail now. I guess I'll keep following the SS which keeps me in the S Fund another week.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%


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  3. #2

    Exclamation Cactus' Account Talk

    03/24/11< I'm cutting my losses. I bailed to F Fund today. March has been a bad month for me. I've had enough. The trend is down. The Smart Money is bearish. Many of the 'AT top 10' are in the F Fund. I'm joining them. Let's see if I'm following them like I follow the market.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%

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  5. #3

    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Greenback, TN
    Posts
    186

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    I love the avatar, Cactus!! Ha! That's the way I feel too!

    Lobo

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  7. #4

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Central Florida
    Posts
    66

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    03/24/11< I'm cutting my losses. I bailed to F Fund today. March has been a bad month for me. I've had enough. The trend is down. The Smart Money is bearish. Many of the 'AT top 10' are in the F Fund. I'm joining them. Let's see if I'm following them like I follow the market.
    Yes, but they have been out of equities for some time. Here's the list:

    1. since 3/3
    2. 2/16
    3. 3/1 to 3.15, then since 3/21
    4. 2/10
    5. 2/17
    6. 2/25 to 3/15 then into I for 4.31% since then
    7. 2/17
    8. in all the time -1.65%
    9. 2/16
    10. 2/16

    Contrarian Jeff has earned his name this month and made over 4 points in eight trading days.

    The rest are mostly holding on since the middle of Feb. Perhaps simply afraid to lose. But they had better be careful, perhaps they'll end the year right where they are, which wouldn't be terrible mind you.

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  9. #5

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    <<< Waiting for Japan/Libya to calm down before I try my luck in S/I funds.

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  11. #6

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    ### 2011 Personal Performance Update ###

    03/25/11: EOW. I bailed Thu instead of Fri because of my tendency to stay a day too long. I saw overhead resistence and overbought stocks and thought it would go down. It didn't. So instead of breaking even I'm down 0.91% for the month so far. Let's see what next week delivers. I don't plan on staying in F for long. I would like to be back in before EOM to enter April in the mkt. It's either that or bail to G for me.

    04/01/11: EOW. Disaster struck this week as the S Train took off without me. So instead of finishing above my Feb high with a 2% gain, I'm down 1% for March. OUCH!!! It's too late to jump on now as it's sure to correct as soon as I do. The SS has gone G for next week so I am staying put and licking my wounds.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%

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  13. #7

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    OK. If one selects the "Bonds (F fund)" chart below it brings up the Yahoo "iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond (PCX)" chart that says we made 0.14% today. I'd take that. When I go to tsp.gov they say I actually lost 0.0006% today. Can someone explain that to me? Is this like the I Fund where "what you see is not what you get"? Is this the end of month administrative cost? What's going on here? Please some explain this too me -- I'm clueless.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%

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  15. #8

    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    Pensacola, FL
    Posts
    6,312

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Because F is not really PCX shares?

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  17. #9

    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    Pensacola, FL
    Posts
    6,312

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    "Although the BlackRock funds operate in a manner similar to mutual funds, they are not, in fact, mutual funds and are not open to individual investors. Furthermore, they are trust funds that are regulated by the Comptroller of the Currency, not by the Securities and Exchange Commission, and therefore do not have ticker symbols."


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  19. #10

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Testing my ability to format/link here.



    How S&P's warning could actually help US debt

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...f537b2ee11e220
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%

  20.  
  21. #11

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Boiled Peanut, Georgia, USA
    Posts
    63,108

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    Your Google link worked!
    10/19/2020
    LS CRUDE Oil
    =$40.83 a Barrel, Daily Status -$.05

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  23. #12

    Default Re: Cactus' Account Talk

    ### 2011 Personal Performance Update ###

    04/07/11> Buying S Fund dip today before Gov closes tomorrow. Should never have left. Cost me 4.5% OUCH!

    04/15/11: EOW. Turned out to be a much larger dip than I had hoped for. It just kept going down. Hopefully it has leveled out. SS on buy for next week so I'm staying put.

    04/21/11: EOW. Another down day on Monday. Got some buy back the rest of the week. I'm basically even for the month right now. SS is on hold??? I'm going to stay the course for now and hope for some follow through. April has been flat for me so far.

    04/29/11: EOM. Apr finished OK for me (1.99%). I shouldn't complain, but I have that Mar loss to make up for and that is still grating on me. That's dangerous because that is keeping me in the mkt into May and I had intended to Sell-In-May-and-Walk-Away for the Summer. Summer has never been good to me but now I feel I have to make up for the lost Spring and that could make things worse. Well I'm in the S Fund for next week so we'll see how long that lasts. All of the AT-top-10 are in the mkt (+), but SS is only on hold (-). Of course it was on hold this week and it payed off for me. Let's see if it continues.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%

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