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Thread: Sensei's account talk

  1. #1225

    Join Date
    Jan 2011
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    Default Re: Sensei's account talk

    The SPX went down and filled the open gap and the W4500 is testing the 200 day moving average. It looks like the second leg down on a potential "W" has formed. Also, good seasonality around the last week of July. I'm rolling the dice and making an IFT to the S-fund, COB Monday.

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  3. #1226

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    Boiled Peanut, Georgia, USA
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    Default Re: Sensei's account talk

    You are a brave man!



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  5. #1227

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    Default Re: Sensei's account talk

    So, the S-fund has been up all 4 days since I've been holding it. Friday looked liked a negative reversal though, so I expect at least a day of red to start August. You can't be on the winning side every day with only 2 IFTs a month. I'm going to stay in stocks for the next week, but I'll be more than happy to hit the eject button if things start to go South.

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  7. #1228

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    Default Re: Sensei's account talk

    I remember a week back in 2011, I think it was September, when the S&P had been down more than 2% on two consecutive days. Tom pointed out in his commentary that this almost always resulted in a snap-back rally, and indeed stocks bounced and eventually recovered from that awful summer. So, we are now looking at another two consecutive days of the S&P being down 2+%. However, the futures are currently down 3.5%. So, it looks like that indicator has failed us.

    Nevertheless, I am not going to sell. Come hell or high waters, I'm going to sit on my hands and ride this out. I can take the pain. Speaking of pain, today was my last day of summer vacation, and a typhoon kept me indoors all day. I ate too much junk food, drank too much soda, and watched too many bad movies. Tomorrow I go back to work. Starting my 8th year of federal employment. I foresee at least 25 more years to go before I really consider retirement. 25 years from now, this will just be a little wrinkle in a Morningstar chart.

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  9. #1229

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    Default Re: Sensei's account talk

    I like your attitude Sensei. And be proud of enjoying the junk food, and bad movies (not so much the drinking )...it all makes life fun! And you are right about the 25 years from now and wrinkles!

    FS
    FogSailing
    Try to learn something about everything and everything about something.

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  11. #1230

    Default Re: Sensei's account talk

    Wow, Sensei, you are just getting started aren't you. Good thing you don't have that much too lose yet like me. We are basically opposites. I got 25 years in and projected retirement in 7 years. I need to change that actually but don't know to what. With my track record I'll be working till they push me out the door or I drop in the harness.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  13. #1231

    Default Re: Sensei's account talk

    I am with you on this ride
    Lets hope it pays off

    Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

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  15. #1232

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    Stinking desert valley of bad air quality, AZ
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    Default Re: Sensei's account talk

    I hope your first day back went well. If my calculations are correct it it just about over. If you feel bad just take it out on the students. They deserve it on the first day.

    PO

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  17. #1233

    Default Re: Sensei's account talk

    You think this is DCB before another move down

    Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk


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  19. #1234

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    Default Re: Sensei's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Fran1775 View Post
    You think this is DCB before another move down

    Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk
    I really have no clue, but usually corrections like this don't resolve themselves with a V-bottom. So, yeah, I guess my bet would be more churn before moving up again. However, whatever rally this might turn out to be could last multiple days before resuming the downfall, so it's hard to say one should sell today. Hence my plan to just keep buying and holding.

    Quote Originally Posted by PessOptimist View Post
    I hope your first day back went well. If my calculations are correct it it just about over. If you feel bad just take it out on the students. They deserve it on the first day.

    PO
    You calculated correctly, PO! This week is faculty only though, no kids to punish. Yet. :P

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  21. #1235

    Join Date
    Dec 2007
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    Northern Virginia
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    Default Re: Sensei's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Fran1775 View Post
    You think this is DCB before another move down

    Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk
    DCB?

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  23. #1236

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    Mar 2012
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    Hampton Roads, VA
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    Default Re: Sensei's account talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Skooby View Post
    DCB?
    Dead Cat Bounce...
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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