Thread: Sensei's account talk

Originally Posted by Sensei

Yes, it's "Golden Week" here. Today (Thursday) is the last of three consecutive days off for the Tokyo Stock Exchange. I think with the Nikkei set to come back Friday, and the I fund losing more than S today, it is a good time to move to I. I'm debating whether to go all in to the I fund or split 50/50, S/I. The news in Japan looks positive - people are hitting the road and spending during the holiday, which will boost consumerism and help the Nikkei continue it's upward climb.

I just made a run to G... if I drops hard tomorrow... i wonder if Nikkei's 25% will boost it to positive...?

any takers?

Originally Posted by nguyensv

I just made a run to G... if I drops hard tomorrow... i wonder if Nikkei's 25% will boost it to positive...?

any takers?

Hard to say. Nikkei was up 1.6% on Monday, then went on a 3 day vacation while the rest of the world went on a losing streak. I can't imagine it will hold that gain on Friday. But any time I try to use logic, the stock market fakes me out. So anything's possible.

Originally Posted by Sensei

Hard to say. Nikkei was up 1.6% on Monday, then went on a 3 day vacation while the rest of the world went on a losing streak. I can't imagine it will hold that gain on Friday. But any time I try to use logic, the stock market fakes me out. So anything's possible.

Nikkei's falling like a ton of bricks. Currently -1.8%. Glad I haven't gone to I yet. I'm hoping to pick up a bounce in S next week. Sticky pants.:toung:

All the major indexes in Asia and Europe are bleeding at least 1% today, and our futures are down. Not looking good for my team (S fund). The optimist in me says this is creating enough bearishness to keep the sentiment survey in a hold, which would position me to catch a bounce next week. The pessimist in me is saying that this is not causing enough bullishness to tip the survey to a sell, which means I'll be catching the full force of this pullback.

Anyway you look at it, this is the truth - if you stayed 100% S all year last year, even through the "flash crash", you still would have ended the year up 29%. These pants is stickin'.

Sensei,

If you were on the side lines right now, would you jump in today? Or do you see up going down a little more?

Originally Posted by wvango

Sensei,

If you were on the side lines right now, would you jump in today? Or do you see up going down a little more?

I don't know if I'm the best person to give advice. I'm still very much a beginner, and am trying my best to be faithful to the Sentiment Survey. A couple times I've acted on my own, with mixed results.

The best I can offer is to watch the survey, and see what the results say. I'm betting it will be a hold, and Tom's suggestion is that you don't enter during a hold. If you're on the side now, you might want to wait until you get a confirmed buy. Then again, we're lower now than we were last week, and I think the long term trend is upward. So maybe now is a good time. Sorry I don't have a better answer.

So I think for the next couple weeks we're going to rattle around. A little up, a little down. No real forward progress, but eventually the trend will continue up. It's beyond me to try and time the ups and downs right now, so the best bet is to stay invested. All I know is that even though there was a lot of bearishness in the survey this week, a visual scan of the tracker shows that the vast majority of us are in stocks, so I think we're pretty overbought. I expect a lot of people will bail, especially as Tom and Coolhand keep reminding us of the gap at 1315. Once people get off the train, that's when I expect it to leave the station. Everybody off!

Originally Posted by Sensei

So I think for the next couple weeks we're going to rattle around. A little up, a little down. No real forward progress, but eventually the trend will continue up. It's beyond me to try and time the ups and downs right now, so the best bet is to stay invested. All I know is that even though there was a lot of bearishness in the survey this week, a visual scan of the tracker shows that the vast majority of us are in stocks, so I think we're pretty overbought. I expect a lot of people will bail, especially as Tom and Coolhand keep reminding us of the gap at 1315. Once people get off the train, that's when I expect it to leave the station. Everybody off!

The Gap will get filled and it will be next week probably Monday or Tuesday. It just depends how the Gap gets filled. It could go from current levels, Fill the Gap, and end Higher than Current levels all in the same day. That's not the scenario I'm hoping for but I've seen it happen before.

Sensei,

I hope this does not come off as too irreverent, I've been meaning to ask for a few days, but can you please give us a boots on the ground assessment?

I haven't seen anything on the news about the state of nuclear affairs over there?

Maybe no news is good news? What, is everybody back to massaging and milking the Kobe beef on the sterile plain and eating Fukashima fish and rice?

How goes it?

Folks got enough underwear and shelter now? How normal is it over there?

Originally Posted by poolman

The Gap will get filled and it will be next week probably Monday or Tuesday. It just depends how the Gap gets filled. It could go from current levels, Fill the Gap, and end Higher than Current levels all in the same day. That's not the scenario I'm hoping for but I've seen it happen before.

I see you've been on the sidelines this month. Think you'll jump back in if/when we fill the gap? I'm not going anywhere - I'm in for Monday regardless, and if I tried to jump out now, I'd probably just miss the bounce. No sell low, buy high for me. I'll just bleed and heal.

Hey Burro -

As you're probably aware, I'm in Okinawa, about 1000 miles away from the actual disaster area. So my assessment is more "feet in the sand" than "boots on the ground". Still, I've been following the nightly news here and can tell you that the nuclear crisis and recovery in the northeast is still the dominant, ongoing news story.

Your question is not too irreverent. In fact, just a couple weeks ago was Japan's annual "Golden Week" (a string of consecutive holidays resulting in almost everyone in the country having the same week off every year). The Ministry of Finance urged its citizens to go out and take a vacation just like every year, because that was the best thing they could do to help the recovery. This is where Japanese conformity shows itself to be a real virtue. People hit the roads in droves and filled the local hotels and inns. It was actually good to see traffic jams on the news. So, yeah, there is definitely a conscious effort to try and get back to life as usual.

The quake and tsunami stricken areas are still a shambles, but there have been lots of heart-warming news stories about them. There are volunteer buses that take volunteers from all over the country to Tohoku (northeast), where they help people put their homes back together. There was a story of the first marriage in the disaster area - a couple all decked out and standing atop heaps of rubble with the ocean at their back. I watched a show that detailed how all the metal was being scavenged and recycled, and uprooted trees and lumber from homes was being turned to pulp for paper and particle board. There's definitely a focus on getting things back to normal.

The biggest concern now is this other power plant being shut down in Hamaoka, and the energy crisis that is going to result. Okinawa, however, has their own power company (fossil fuels, not nuclear) so my electric bill won't go up. But I don't know how the lights will stay on in Tokyo.

Thanks for checking in - I'm always excited to talk about Japan!

Originally Posted by burrocrat

Sensei,

I hope this does not come off as too irreverent, I've been meaning to ask for a few days, but can you please give us a boots on the ground assessment?

I haven't seen anything on the news about the state of nuclear affairs over there?

Maybe no news is good news? What, is everybody back to massaging and milking the Kobe beef on the sterile plain and eating Fukashima fish and rice?

How goes it?

Folks got enough underwear and shelter now? How normal is it over there?