Thread: Sensei's account talk

Man, looking at Asia, Europe, and our futures today, it seems like we're in for another surge up. Good thing I idiot-proofed my last IFT by forcing myself to leave 50% in stocks. Not sure what my plan of attack will be from here. I guess I'll just ride it out as far as it goes at 50/50, and think about buying back in at the next test of the 20 day SMA.

Very little to contribute recently. Still 50/50. I'll look at the charts later, but mostly just wanted to try posting from my phone. Mission accomplished!

Originally Posted by Sensei

Very little to contribute recently. Still 50/50. I'll look at the charts later, but mostly just wanted to try posting from my phone. Mission accomplished!

Welcome to the world of inefficient multitasking, lol

The day is young and the channel might not hold, but if it does... that would be a crazy bullish channel. Tell me, am I crazy?

SPX 2012_09_18.png

We'll be at 1566 before you can blink and then it becomes boundless.

Originally Posted by Sensei

The day is young and the channel might not hold, but if it does... that would be a crazy bullish channel. Tell me, am I crazy?

SPX 2012_09_18.png

that would be crazy to see, but a sustained upward channel like that is next to impossible lol. at some point there would have to be some selling, can't buy unless someone's willing to sell

Still a lot of prevailing bearishness here. 75% of the herd in G & F, and 55% of the top 50 there as well. The 20 day SMA is rising up and price is now within the bollinger bands. I'll look for a meltup to 1480 or so. New allocation:

90 S
05 C
05 I (why do I always buy this freakin' fund?! )

My "crazy channel" obviously didn't hold, but the bottom of it could be a guide line up to the bollinger band. Maybe up to 1485 early next week? Then look out for a return to the pink line, which ought to provide a measure of support. Even if the rally stumbles, I think that pink line will keep the uptrend going. Like Birchtree reminds us often, in a bull market there's more risk being out than in.
SPX 2012_09_21.png

Sideways consolidation, need a BREAKOUT!

Originally Posted by Sensei

My "crazy channel" obviously didn't hold, but the bottom of it could be a guide line up to the bollinger band. Maybe up to 1485 early next week? Then look out for a return to the pink line, which ought to provide a measure of support. Even if the rally stumbles, I think that pink line will keep the uptrend going. Like Birchtree reminds us often, in a bull market there's more risk being out than in.
SPX 2012_09_21.png

small caps are up so far, bounced off 849 forming a bull flag, and then we're up from there. it's looking good.

Here's how the day ended up. My charting attempts are extremely amateurish, which is to be expected as I am a complete amateur. FWIW, though, the action is still playing out like a bull flag in the S&P. Still, it seems like when I try to project a bullish outlook, the market turns bearish. When I try to project a bearish outlook, it goes bullish. I guess the bearish perspective here is that we had what looks like negative reversal action. So follow through should be to the downside.

SPX 2012_09_21(2).png

Final thought for the weekend. I've found that it's much easier to buy in near a bottom and catch a rally in a bear market than to sell near the top and avoid a dip in a bull market. Just my own experience, of course. The reason I am where I am on the tracker is because I resisted the urge to sell throughout the prolonged uptrend at the beginning of this year. More recently, I'm trying to get to cute with my IFTs. So, until we go crashing through the 20 day SMA, I'm going to try to show a little more discipline and stay in this bull market.

Good luck, and good weekend!