Thread: Steel_Magnolia's Account Talk

Originally Posted by Steel_Magnolia

I don't expect the MB to be very bust the next few days. ...

I of course meant "busy" rather than bust. This MB will never be bust. My right hand is starting to work sometimes but it still doesn't spell worth a darn.

Nasa, sorry you have to spend the holiday specifically set aside as a rest from Labors at work!

And VLM, did your doctor tell you, "No more wine, no more women, but you can sing as much as you want to."?

Sorry. Old joke.

Have a good one, everyone, and thanks for the visit to my MB home.

Maggie

In my own charting, I got a dead cross in F Fund yesterday, a golden cross in C Fund 2 days ago, and a golden cross in S and I Funds 3 days ago. So today I changed my allocation to 53% G, 14% F Fund, 13% C Fund, 13% S Fund and 7% I Fund.

A lot less F and a lot more in stock funds. Still not very brave, but then us retired FERS folks have to be so careful with our capital.

And I was relieved to see CH's blog confirm that there was a SS buy signal today.

FWIW,
Maggie

wish you would have said that earlier.

Originally Posted by burrocrat

wish you would have said that earlier.

Sorry, burro! There are days I can think well enough to discuss the markets, and days that I can't. Good thing that's getting a little better all the time or I'd really be scared about managing my TSP - you know, that ONE-THIRD of my retirement. FERS was such a better idea than CSRS was ....

Maggie

I found an interesting market rotation model that may be of some help to us when we're making our TSP decisions. Do you know the ETF Prophet site? The authors of the site are folks like the writers of BZB Trader, Skill Analytics, Market Rewind and several other favorite bloggers who combined their blogs into this one site, and I recommend it highly.

I was looking around the site this morning and stumbled on this market rotation model. The model uses SPY (similar to our C Fund), IWM (similar to our S Fund), EEM (somewhat similar to our I Fund), AGG (similar to our F Fund) as well as DBC for commodities and UUP, the US dollar index.

The model ranks those six funds using a relative strength formula and invests in the highest ranked fund once a week on Friday or Monday. Here is what the current rating is:

Attachment 9989

I hope you find this as informative as I did!

Maggie

Very nice Steel. Thanks

You're welcome, WorkFE. Help yourself to some of that red velvet cake on the counter there. And Silverbird has graciously made a pot of decaf to go with it.

Maggie

The cake I'll take but I'm a leaded guy.

Maggie, I like the rotation! I have DBC in my trading account, but it hasn't been doing much since I bought a year ago, couple times I coulda sold but a year wasn't up yet for LT cap gains so I didn't sell.

Question, there are 3 tables there and they all have EEM, but they don't all 3 have all the others of the 6. so how do they figure out when one of the others of IWM or DBC or SPY rotate to the top for example? the other tables have different ETFs, like QQQQ substituted for IWM in at least one of the other tables. I looked for explanation but didn't find one. Did you?

Originally Posted by alevin

Maggie, I like the rotation!

Question, there are 3 tables there and they all have EEM, but they don't all 3 have all the others of the 6. so how do they figure out when one of the others of IWM or DBC or SPY rotate to the top for example? the other tables have different ETFs, like QQQQ substituted for IWM in at least one of the other tables. I looked for explanation but didn't find one. Did you?

Hi Allie, I didn't find an explanation either.

As you can see, each of the three groups has a slightly different focus. Group 2 has the leveraged QLD instead of IWM, and the inverse of Vanguard's total stock market VTI instead of UUP. Group 3 uses the Q's and SH (the short S&P 500 ETF) instead.

Maybe it just depends on personal preference. For us TSPers, it's easy to pick Group 1 because those ETFs are closest to our fund choices.

Maggie

P.S.

"Allie and Mags." Sounds like a pair of TV detectives, doesn't it? Do you want to be Sharon Gless or Tyne Daly?

You're way taller-you get to be sharon.