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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1933

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Woo hoo, looks like my Green Chili Cheeseburgers emerged victorious...
    1st Place.jpg

    So....One thing about the folks that leave the TSP, you never hear about how they did out there in the real world. I always wonder if the infinite opportunities to screw up your account in an IRA would result in diminished returns if I left.
    If I remember, I'll plan to update how I'm doing in my new traditional IRA quarterly. So, for the first update...
    When I left the TSP on February 21st I was up 7.11% for 2023, and remained at that level for a week until the funds showed up in my IRA just an hour before the close on 2/28.
    For March, I gained 3.81% in the IRA, so for the YTD I'm up +11.19%.
    Looks like that would have me at #15 in the tracker.
    I've now got the IRA set up with exactly 50 high dividend equities...about 2% in each of them, lots of diversity...things like preferred stocks, REITs, closed-end funds, baby bonds, business development companies, and energy companies (all selected with the help of Rida Morwa's great "High Dividends Opportunities" service on SeekingAlpha.com). My overall yield is currently a fantastic 10.79%, and year-end "special" dividends will push it over 11%....but....

    I worry about what lies ahead for the market right here. Most gurus have thrown in the towel and are bullish, expecting at least 4300 by June.
    But it worries me that sentiment is suddenly so one-sided. I can only find two remaining bears among the gurus I follow, and most of the short-term bullish gurus expect a 30%+ drop once we get to a peak over 4300.
    I'll have a hard time not selling much of my portfolio if/when I think we're at a major top.
    I'll likely do that (not everything, things like preferred stocks and baby bonds don't go down much in share price and just keep pumping out dividends), and put those funds back into SWVXX (now earning 4.68%) and/or SH to short the S&P 500. So many options!....I know, I'll put it all in bitcoin!!

    Lastly....so happy that my first grandson was born yesterday...an April Fool LOL...and a second one is due in August...on top of the two granddaughters already lighting up my life.
    I went out and bought a USA Today ($3) and Wall Street Journal ($6), to give him when he turns 16 or 18 or whatever, so he can see what was happening on his birthday...
    He'll probably say "wow, these only cost $9 back then?!". LOL

  2.  
  3. #1934

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I'm looking to move away from TSP also, so I always look forward to your posts. Thanks, and congratulations on the great life happenings for you. Good luck.

  4.  
  5. #1935

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I'm seeing a lot of bullish stuff this weekend, but the most bullish to me is that on Friday 3/31 the eleventh ZBT signal since 1970 occurred.
    It's almost always very bullish. Here's a nice summary of past signals...

    https://twitter.com/CyclesFan/status...95259319877636


  6.  
  7. #1936

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quite the blow-off the last couple of days. Is this a top? Don't know, but it does fit Cem Karsan's prediction of a blow-off top perfectly so far...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CPBWY5Jk9o
    https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/st...48284278194180

    Also, a big red flag for me is that the UE rate has finally moved above the moving average on this chart, which (unless it was a one-month anomaly) means the economy is now entering a recession...
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46880709107&a=44 2365228
    That indicator is one of the best there is to warn of an impending recession...
    https://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/02/uetrend/

    I'm still in the camp that this is a cyclical rally within a secular bear market, and the bear is getting hungry and in the coming weeks it will begin feeding off of the massive new pile of Treasury paper.

  8.  
  9. #1937

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Awesome post. 👏 Want some crumps. Will watch and head for the exit this week.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Quite the blow-off the last couple of days. Is this a top? Don't know, but it does fit Cem Karsan's prediction of a blow-off top perfectly so far...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CPBWY5Jk9o
    https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/st...48284278194180

    Also, a big red flag for me is that the UE rate has finally moved above the moving average on this chart, which (unless it was a one-month anomaly) means the economy is now entering a recession...
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46880709107&a=44 2365228
    That indicator is one of the best there is to warn of an impending recession...
    https://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/02/uetrend/

    I'm still in the camp that this is a cyclical rally within a secular bear market, and the bear is getting hungry and in the coming weeks it will begin feeding off of the massive new pile of Treasury paper.

  10.  
  11. #1938

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    No comments needed, hilarious...
    https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/st...128321/photo/1

    Just doing a little math...IF (big if) Friday was the top, then if the next wave down equals the first wave down in time and price (from 1/2/22 to 10/14/22), then SPX would bottom on 3/21/24 near 3000.
    That's an interesting date since it almost matches the 3/23/2020 Covid panic low, and it would be in the same year of the Presidential Cycle as well.

  12.  
  13. #1939

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post

    So....One thing about the folks that leave the TSP, you never hear about how they did out there in the real world. I always wonder if the infinite opportunities to screw up your account in an IRA would result in diminished returns if I left.
    If I remember, I'll plan to update how I'm doing in my new traditional IRA quarterly. So, for the first update...
    When I left the TSP on February 21st I was up 7.11% for 2023, and remained at that level for a week until the funds showed up in my IRA just an hour before the close on 2/28.
    For March, I gained 3.81% in the IRA, so for the YTD I'm up +11.19%.
    Hello TSP'ers...Quarterly update...adjusted for my monthly withdrawals, for 2023 YTD my IRA is now up 12.7%. A rather crappy quarter gaining just 1.5%, but at least it's positive and doing it's job for a happy retirement.
    Seems like to make big money so far this year you have to have had high exposure to the Elite 8 tech stocks. When those top I wouldn't want to be on that boat.

  14.  
  15. #1940

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    A fun fact...

    For the S&P 500 and C fund, the all-time closing high was on 1/3/2022, and the intra-day record high of 4818 was on 1/4/2022.
    The closing low for the bear market was on 10/12/2022, and the intra-day low was on 10/13/2022. Both were 195 trading days from the respective January 2022 highs.
    If you count forward 195 trading days, yesterday was 195 trading days from 10/12/2022, and today will be 195 trading days from 10/13/2022.

    So perhaps we get a spike high today after the Fed news, to complete that matching pair of bookends?

    Looking ahead, if this in fact turns out to be a major top, as a small/dwindling number of gurus think, then 195 trading days from 7/25/23 & 7/26/23 would be 5/3/24 and 5/6/24.

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  17. #1941

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    "So perhaps we get a spike high today after the Fed news, to complete that matching pair of bookends?"

    Bingo, and also (barely!) got the lower close for SPX....and that 13th straight up day for the Dow, for the first time since right before the 1987 crash.

    And no, I'm not predicting a crash LOL. Just some interesting numbers at this point.

  18.  
  19. #1942

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Don't know if this has been brought up. I think this could be a big improvement for the I fund going forward...

    https://federalnewsnetwork.com/tsp/2...rting-in-2024/

    Does anyone know if there's an ETF that tracks the "MSCI All Country World ex-USA and ex-China and Hong Kong Investible Market Index"?

    As for the market...looking good for the year-end rally to continue into January, perhaps topping on Cem Karsan's 1/17/24 VIX OpEx date.
    He's been pointing to that date for months...
    https://twitter.com/jam_croissant

    Can't believe I'm approaching 5 years retired. Time flies!

  20.  
  21. #1943

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Don't know if this has been brought up. I think this could be a big improvement for the I fund going forward...

    https://federalnewsnetwork.com/tsp/2...rting-in-2024/

    Does anyone know if there's an ETF that tracks the "MSCI All Country World ex-USA and ex-China and Hong Kong Investible Market Index"?

    As for the market...looking good for the year-end rally to continue into January, perhaps topping on Cem Karsan's 1/17/24 VIX OpEx date.
    He's been pointing to that date for months...
    https://twitter.com/jam_croissant

    Can't believe I'm approaching 5 years retired. Time flies!
    Congrats on 5-years in, I'm right behind you!

    Great read, for myself I don't invest in China because I don't like the manipulation of their data. While I agree "in principle" we should avoid unethical markets, I find it concerning to think the I-Fund could be used as a 68 Billion dollar political weapon (using our money). The primary concern I have is the definition and application of what is unethical. If we dig hard enough we can find plenty of shady issues with our current investments. Funny thing is (unless I'm mistaken) the I-Fund already doesn't invest in China, so is this nothing more than a symbolic gesture?

    Anyhow, remember the TSP-talk member with the I-Fund spreadsheet that would tell you how much the fund could earn on a daily basis before the IFT cutoff? In those days of the unlimited IFTs that was a nice edge to have.
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

  22.  
  23. #1944

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post

    Can't believe I'm approaching 5 years retired. Time flies!
    It would have been 11 years for me if I hadn't failed retirement in 2014. So technically it's 4 years. I retired the second time in 2021.
    May the force be with us.


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