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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1813

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I've been following him for over a year. He's on a real hot streak lately, but he's been wrong a lot too. He's not as good at Elliott waves as he seems to think he is.

    I think there's still a good chance of another low.
    This history of extreme NYMO lows suggests a lower low is more likely than not.
    https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/statu...56059437797377

    I'm biased though since I have no IFTs left to get in until 2/1.

    David Hunter also said today marked the bottom of the pullback he's been predicting for months. So now he's looking for his melt-up to 6000 SPX over the next few months.

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  3. #1814

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  5. #1815

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I thought today was wild, but wow, only one other time in history was wilder than today.
    https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/statu...39048981630977
    So, I was curious...I remember the Asian Contagion since it's still talked about today as a momentous market dive...


    Here's the data. The next day the market went a couple percent lower but that was the bottom and it was up up and away on very heavy volume from there.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EG...stedClose=true

    I'm hoping for a repeat of that (on a smaller scale, no more than 1% down in the morning) to put the bears back into hibernation tomorrow. Friday's are not a common day for turnarounds though.

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  7. #1816

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I hate these sorts of analogs, but it's worth being aware of...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbDkKh6Etco

    And to add to the gloom I see Hussman just put a new monthly commentary today...haven't read it yet...

    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc220210/

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  9. #1817

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk


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  11. #1818

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Contrarian buyer.. sometimes turns into catching a falling knife. Risky business.


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  13. #1819

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu View Post
    Contrarian buyer.. sometimes turns into catching a falling knife. Risky business.
    I decided to bail out today since being retired I can't risk a huge drawdown and there's definitely risk of that now.
    The seasonality of Mid-term election years should have the market heading up now, but this year is clearly different than a normal mid-term year where the main concern is just the upcoming election. That's hardly even on the radar this year.
    I still expect a big rally at any time, possibly to as high as 4700, but by mid-March I think we'll see lower lows, even if only marginally lower, so I'm out.

    I spent a lot of time this weekend going over the detailed math of my retirement budget projections and if I just stay parked in the G fund for the next 8 years until I turn 70, it would drain half of my TSP but I could do that, and achieve the goal of holding off on collecting SS until age 70 in order to maximize the benefit. At that point I might not even need the TSP income. If Hussman and others are correct (even my permabull guru Avi Gilburt is predicting a horrible decade-long bear market of at least 50% down, but he doesn't think it's started yet, he's said this in public articles on Seeking Alpha so I'm not giving anything away) there will be a bear market for at least that long, or at best a sideways market for over ten years, so that's a very real possibility...though I'm sure I'll not be able to resist trying to catch dead cat bounces nearly every month. So far this year that sure hasn't worked out. The real disaster for my budget and any retirees budget will be if this 7%+ or worse inflation keeps raging for years.

    I'm reading a good book called "When Money Dies", all about the hyperinflation in Germany/Austria/Hungary after WWI, and the parallels to what is happening in the U.S. are getting scary.

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  15. #1820

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    I decided to bail out today since being retired I can't risk a huge drawdown and there's definitely risk of that now.
    The seasonality of Mid-term election years should have the market heading up now, but this year is clearly different than a normal mid-term year where the main concern is just the upcoming election. That's hardly even on the radar this year.
    I still expect a big rally at any time, possibly to as high as 4700, but by mid-March I think we'll see lower lows, even if only marginally lower, so I'm out.

    I spent a lot of time this weekend going over the detailed math of my retirement budget projections and if I just stay parked in the G fund for the next 8 years until I turn 70, it would drain half of my TSP but I could do that, and achieve the goal of holding off on collecting SS until age 70 in order to maximize the benefit. At that point I might not even need the TSP income. If Hussman and others are correct (even my permabull guru Avi Gilburt is predicting a horrible decade-long bear market of at least 50% down, but he doesn't think it's started yet, he's said this in public articles on Seeking Alpha so I'm not giving anything away) there will be a bear market for at least that long, or at best a sideways market for over ten years, so that's a very real possibility...though I'm sure I'll not be able to resist trying to catch dead cat bounces nearly every month. So far this year that sure hasn't worked out. The real disaster for my budget and any retirees budget will be if this 7%+ or worse inflation keeps raging for years.

    I'm reading a good book called "When Money Dies", all about the hyperinflation in Germany/Austria/Hungary after WWI, and the parallels to what is happening in the U.S. are getting scary.
    Good read. Thanks for posting this writeup. I keep thinking in my head…post “tax free cash” is king to have going forward in a really ugly market period coming. I have a house but wife wants a newer house. Cannot see making that move right now. I’m much more into reducing all money outflows so paid off house, cars, and carry zero debt. I cut cable long years ago. Have internet, firestick and a good tv. I have done as much as possible so do not plan to touch TSP and will take SS later but the middle ground for me is about 65 or 66. I cannot wait until 70 and I don’t even think that we will have full benefits anyway down the line. Do you have any good books you have read or online forum or information you like?? I already knew this ugly inflation and market period was coming so at least I was preparing for the onslaught.

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  17. #1821

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by felixthecat View Post
    Do you have any good books you have read or online forum or information you like?? I already knew this ugly inflation and market period was coming so at least I was preparing for the onslaught.
    Not sure what topic you mean regarding books and stuff, but...

    Regarding preparing for retirement in general I recommend maxifiplanner.com. I subscribed for the last 3 years I was working and it helped me to verify my own spreadsheets to feel comfortable enough to retire.

    Regarding social security, I also like Lawrence Kotlikoff's book "Get What's Yours" (spoiler alert, if you think you may live to your late 80s or longer then you really should try to hold out as long as you can before collecting) as well as his online software at https://maximizemysocialsecurity.com/

    Closing down about 1%...doesn't look to me like a lasting bottom was set today, but it could bounce more for sure.

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  19. #1822

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Not sure what topic you mean regarding books and stuff, but...

    Regarding preparing for retirement in general I recommend maxifiplanner.com. I subscribed for the last 3 years I was working and it helped me to verify my own spreadsheets to feel comfortable enough to retire.

    Regarding social security, I also like Lawrence Kotlikoff's book "Get What's Yours" (spoiler alert, if you think you may live to your late 80s or longer then you really should try to hold out as long as you can before collecting) as well as his online software at https://maximizemysocialsecurity.com/

    Closing down about 1%...doesn't look to me like a lasting bottom was set today, but it could bounce more for sure.
    Thanks for those links! I have been a couple of months into retirement already. So, I was mainly thinking about SS which you gave a link on and how to maximize monthly inflow. I have invested in retirement dividend stocks to help build some monthly income (like Birchtree…&#128556. I like to read books as well. I liked, “How to retire the Cheapskate Way” 🤣🤣 and Kevin Trudeau’s “Free Money They Don’t Want You To Know About”, and Suze Orman’s “Ultimate Retirement Guide”. Retirement looking good right now so feeling confident going forward.

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  21. #1823

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    A very sober look at where America is at right now, and it ain't pretty. We're in the final stages of the "ark" as Ray Dalio calls it.
    Meanwhile China is ascending rapidly up their ark and about to overtake the U.S.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Okw4Q2Nnyc

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  23. #1824

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Wow, the lowest % bulls reading since 1992!

    https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/st...DaNBNAHWQK7K3A

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