I see the same with the Wave i bottom and wave ii (santa rally) to follow.
SPX sitting right on the 50% fib retracement from October low. 38.2% is overhead at 4566, so I'll be watching a break of that level for signs of a bottom.
Changed my mind and moved 50/50 C and S. The market is moving so fast it looks like that initial wave 1 up is already done. So that improves the odds that the wave 2 down will be finished by tomorrow morning and the market can move up again tomorrow. Maybe. Who knows. Maybe it's just a dead cat bounce for all I know, but the indicators I follow say hi odds yesterday was the bottom.
I see the same with the Wave i bottom and wave ii (santa rally) to follow.
SPX sitting right on the 50% fib retracement from October low. 38.2% is overhead at 4566, so I'll be watching a break of that level for signs of a bottom.
60C 40S we shall see.
Critical spot here for the market obviously. Hopefully the Fed threads the needle tomorrow and just the relief of getting beyond the news propels the market higher in a wave 3.
Today's low fits perfectly as a wave 2 low. Fingers crossed. C'mon Santa!
https://twitter.com/AdamMancini4/sta...39539547660289
Not sure what delta sticky-skew is, sounds like what was smeared on our street this week when somebody ran over an opossum and dragged it 50 feet, but I looked up what happened back in February 2016 and after peaking on 12/1/15 the S&P 500 slid almost 8%, finally hit a significant bottom on 2/11/16, then it proceeded to soar 5.4% over the next three days, then kept going higher from there, finishing 2016 over 18% higher than the 2/11/16 low.
https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/st...11546074718211
I was doing some year-end file cleaning and came across a stack of Terry Laundry "T-Theory" charts.
One of them was this one from April of 2009:
https://stockmarketobservations.file...20090430-1.jpg
What caught my eye was “93 years top to top”. From a quick search I found this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1837
So, an economic boom in the mid-1830’s led to banks raising interest rates, and that contributed to a major stock market crash and long depression starting in the spring of 1837.
Well, the spring of 1837 to the fall of 1929 was about 92.5 years.
Counting forward 92.5 years you get about March of 2022.
Hmm.
On that cheery note, Merry Christmas everyone!
Thank you. Merry Christmas, Tsunami!
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
I see that only 3 weeks into the year Morgan Stanley is already the winner of the 2022 S&P 500 predictions contest:
https://twitter.com/FerroTV/status/1477956710396485632
Winner, winner, ramen noodles for dinner!
This is one of those rare times that I'm actually glad/fortunate for the 2 IFTs/month limit. Despite what the tracker says I started the year in G, moved to C on 1/11, then to the G fund on 1/14 after just 3 days in the C fund.
2 of those 3 days were up but one big down day was enough to have me sitting at -0.98% for January. I'm fine with that since if I had another IFT I would have likely gotten back in by now. So they saved me from myself this time.
This is getting so painful for most investors. I went back and looked at the monthly returns since May 2001 for the S fund https://www.tsp.gov/fund-performance/ and if the S fund closes down another 0.5% or so today this month will rank as the 4th worst ever, behind only March 2020, October 2008 and September 2001.
My Peter Eliades software is showing a downside projection of 4261 for a closing price for the S&P 500, so maybe it will bottom around there. It needs to close below 4400 in the next few days to "confirm" that projection, and it could go lower of course.
We'll see. It's certainly extremely oversold, but now as we approach next Wednesday's Fed meeting fear will build up. So I doubt there will be a bottom before then. After the Fed meeting I'd expect a big relief rally no matter what they say...
Fed: "We're raising rates 3% today!".... Market: Hooray!!! and then it soars 5% in 5 minutes Wednesday afternoon.
For anyone that doesn't follow him, Wu has been stunningly accurate lately...if he's right then today is likely the bottom.
https://twitter.com/MasterPandaWu
Mancini also continues to be one of the best and a must follow for me...
https://twitter.com/AdamMancini4
SPX 4380 near the lower BB on a weekly chart.
50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!
Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 4-1-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410
https://twitter.com/MasterPandaWu/st...17788236791808
Believe MasterPanda has called a bottom, and thinks new all time highs next. If I'm reading this right... How good is he?
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