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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1729

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    CPI-W came in at +1.5% year over year, so that will be the 2021 COLA for federal retirees and social security and VA benefit recipients.
    CPI-U was +1.4% year-over-year, but CPI-W is the measure retirees care about.

    https://www.bls.gov/cpi/latest-numbers.htm

    https://www.moaa.org/content/take-ac...ch/#COLA-Watch

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  3. #1730

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I think this sums up the current market beautifully...

    "In the context of extreme valuations, economic headwinds, and overbought extremes, the shift in market internals here is not a ‘buy signal’ or even a constructive ‘opportunity.’ It’s more like the cast of Jackass showing up on your driveway with skateboards and dynamite. You don’t need to join them, and you expect that it will end badly, but since you don’t know what they’ve got in mind, or how long they’ll hang around, it’s best not to stand directly in front of them."

    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc201016/

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  5. #1731

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Hmm. My last edition of FEDSmith reported both federal retirees and social security recipients will receive a 2021 COLA of 1.3%.
    "the biggest mistake that traders make is to let these short-term trades turn into longer-term investments when they don’t work." RevShark

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  7. #1732

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ravensfan View Post
    Hmm. My last edition of FEDSmith reported both federal retirees and social security recipients will receive a 2021 COLA of 1.3%.
    Yep, 1.3% is right. I posted that too quick before I got the facts straight. Meanwhile I read that our health insurance premiums are going up 4.9% on average for 2021, so that will eat up the COLA.
    Same as it ever was.

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  9. #1733

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Looks like my health care plan is going up 5% - pretty much exact.

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  11. #1734

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Yeah, I am in a little bit of a different boat this year as I will be turning 65 in January and it is mandatory that I take Medicare parts A and B since I am under Tricare. My premium will go from $25. per month for Tricare Prime to whatever the new rate for Medicare will be, currently $144.50. I will not be surprised if it ends up over $150.00 for Medicare. But the good news is that Tricare for life becomes my secondary insurance and covers whatever Medicare does not and there is no charge for Tricare for life. This means I will not have a need for Medicare supplement or prescription coverage, but will be keeping my FedVip for dental.
    "the biggest mistake that traders make is to let these short-term trades turn into longer-term investments when they don’t work." RevShark

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  13. #1735

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Aetna high deductible is going up over 20%. I'm switching to Blue Cross.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    Looks like my health care plan is going up 5% - pretty much exact.
    Weatherweenie's Account Talk
    Teddy Roosevelt: Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official. Retired on November 30, 2023 with 30+ years of service.

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  15. #1736

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    OK, I just discovered that the 2021 rates are out, and have been for a week...boy retirees are kept out of the loop (or I was just asleep for the last week).
    We've had BCBS Blue Focus for the last 2 years and I highly recommend that option for healthy folks. For next year though my wife needs an Rx that's not covered by Blue Focus, and would cost a crazy $900 per month!...so we're switching back to the Basic plan that I had for decades. That will be $162/month more, ouch...but I planned to switch back to the Basic option at age 65 anyway since that's the one to get to go with Medicare Part B (Blue Focus does not have the partial premium reimbursement when you get Part B). I'll miss the $10 doctor copays though. I'm surprised more people don't go with Blue Focus.

    https://www.fepblue.org/benefit-plan...nteractive.pdf

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  17. #1737

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    How about a little Halloween fright?...

    Here's an image from a recent Carl Swenlin video where he was discussing his experience with the 1987 crash:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjkB...ature=youtu.be (he starts this segment at about the 9:30 mark)

    1987 Crash Analogy.jpg

    OK, well now look at the last 7 months in the S&P 500. Hmm, there's sure a lot of similarities there.
    If the pattern repeats we'd see about a 30% drop over the next week (circuit breakers would limit the panic to less than that), maybe after a one-day bounce on Monday or election day.... Boo!

    1987 Crash Analogy - 2020.JPG


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  19. #1738

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    1987 also kicked off one heck of bull run. The high was regained in two years. The lows will never be seen again. Kind of reminds me of what happened in March as far as the speed of it.

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  21. #1739

    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Lesson: Don't be in market when the 20EMA is below 50EMA!


    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    How about a little Halloween fright?...

    Here's an image from a recent Carl Swenlin video where he was discussing his experience with the 1987 crash:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjkB...ature=youtu.be (he starts this segment at about the 9:30 mark)

    1987 Crash Analogy.jpg

    OK, well now look at the last 7 months in the S&P 500. Hmm, there's sure a lot of similarities there.
    If the pattern repeats we'd see about a 30% drop over the next week (circuit breakers would limit the panic to less than that), maybe after a one-day bounce on Monday or election day.... Boo!

    1987 Crash Analogy - 2020.JPG
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  23. #1740

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    There is a Monday bounce in the works!
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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