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Thread: Tsunami's Account Talk

  1. #1681

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    No such luck. Forgetting to click the "confirm" button cost me over $6K. At least I got it right on my wife's account, I would have gotten a beating otherwise.
    Looks to me like the market is set up to continue the rally tomorrow. This morning was an awful UE weekly claims report, much worse than expected...tomorrow we could get the same reaction to the monthly report...once bad news is behind the market people buy, plus there will be improving coronavirus news over the weekend. That's my theory anyway and I'm sticking to it, 100%, literally. Gulp.

    Peter Eliades' projections software has been masterful since I started watching his videos last September, and I'm hoping it's right again and this rally continues up to the 2800s next week.
    After that all bets are off and a drop to 1800 or even lower wouldn't surprise me at all.

    https://www.youtube.com/c/stockmarketcycles

    P.S. - Here's the main chart on oil that has me bullish on select oil stocks and ETFs like ERX, for the short term anyway... to me this pattern looks like a long term bottom and next is a long term up move on oil...which might mean inflation finally?
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...72&a=378205075

    I started watching Peter's channel after your post and I was wondering if you were going to jump back out today, looks like a good move on your part. The next major move could be interesting. I decided to hold off last Friday from going into equities, only because it's so damn early in the month, didn't want to burn the IFTs so early. I'll be curious to see how long Peter keeps posting updates before shutting it down, he's been very informative.
    100 G COB 11/3/23

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  3. #1682

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Nordic View Post
    I started watching Peter's channel after your post and I was wondering if you were going to jump back out today, looks like a good move on your part. The next major move could be interesting. I decided to hold off last Friday from going into equities, only because it's so damn early in the month, didn't want to burn the IFTs so early. I'll be curious to see how long Peter keeps posting updates before shutting it down, he's been very informative.
    Yep, I got out today based on the S&P 500 getting close to Peter's 2722 target, along with my guess on the Elliott wave pattern which seems to me that wave C up of the rally is nearing the end. Looks like I was a day early in getting out though, thanks to the dastardly 12 noon IFT deadline. Now that I'm in the G fund purgatory until May 1st, this would be a a good time for me to move my TSP to an IRA, so I'm mulling that over again. As of this evening I'm now at -4.19% for the year in my TSP, but +48% in my Roth IRA, so that's also nudging me toward escaping the TSP's rules.

    Here's some good stuff from Jay Kaeppel. In the opening segment he fails to point out that the E in the P/E ration is dropping like a rock, but otherwise lots of good info here.
    https://tinyurl.com/v5gzlbo

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  5. #1683

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    A rare Dr. Hussman interview...

    https://ttmygh.com/hmmminars/


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  7. #1684

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Chamath, the next Warren Buffet? That's his dream... an excellent interview...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hA3TV1bGsg

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  9. #1685

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I like to watch this guys videos, and I've had Hurst's book for many years in PDF format but have yet to read it. Note at about the 11 minute mark where he mentions the target for this bear market rally was 2819...and where did it peak Thursday?....2819! Bingo.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iX7uTkmTWN0

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  11. #1686

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    It will be interesting to see how the market behaves regarding the usually weak seasonal period this year...
    https://allstarcharts.com/wp-content...tricktable.png

    Sell in May..JPG

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  13. #1687

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    I went 100% C yesterday, but am moving to 100% S today. Should have done that yesterday, oh well. The S fund at the moment is about 7.7% from the 200dma, while the C fund is only 3% from it, so the S fund is making up for lost time and really ripping toward that target. Got all my fingers and toes crossed it gets there next week. I need only about 3% more to get to green for the year.

    McClellan's latest agrees that the uptrend should continue, if I'm reading this right (the very last sentence).
    https://www.mcoscillator.com/learnin...ng_out_of_spy/
    I do expect a sharp pullback once this current rally exhausts though, maybe bottoming in early June, fitting the pattern of lows every 2 two months on the first day of even numbered months. That pattern started last June and is still intact.

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  15. #1688

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    I went 100% C yesterday, but am moving to 100% S today. Should have done that yesterday, oh well. The S fund at the moment is about 7.7% from the 200dma, while the C fund is only 3% from it, so the S fund is making up for lost time and really ripping toward that target. Got all my fingers and toes crossed it gets there next week. I need only about 3% more to get to green for the year.
    Steady as she goes. Today is a wave 4 and there could be one more drop down to 2930ish today.
    The S fund is now about 5.6% below the 200 sma, the S&P just 1%. I'm planning to escape to G somewhere between 3000 and 3060, so now the trick will be trying to time it to the right day this week.
    I was happy to see that I got my wife's TSP back into the green for 2020 as of the close yesterday, and I'm now at -2.21%, edging closer. Go S fund!

    Our 25th anniversary is coming up next week. I don't think we'll be going out, somehow this doesn't seem like an appealing way to celebrate...
    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/s...06393607536642

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  17. #1689

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    HAPPY WEDDING ANNIVERSARY! Thx for posting... & always... GO COUGS!

  18.  
  19. #1690

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Tsunami View Post
    Our 25th anniversary is coming up next week. I don't think we'll be going out, somehow this doesn't seem like an appealing way to celebrate...
    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/s...06393607536642
    Congratulations. We will celebrate our 41st anniversary next week.
    May the force be with us.

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  21. #1691

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by FAAM View Post
    HAPPY WEDDING ANNIVERSARY! Thx for posting... & always... GO COUGS!
    FAAM,

    My Florida vanity license plate uses the Florida Panther as the background, with the plate number "WSU 82". In New Mexico the plate was WAZZU82. Go Cougs!

    Yesterday brought back memories, 40 years since Mt. St. Helens blew. My buddies and I were down at Boyer Park on the Snake river preparing for a day of girl watching when a cop came by with loudspeakers blaring..."Get the hell back to campus, fast!"...

    Here's a photo I took out my dorm window at noon that day. Then that last sliver of light disappeared and it was pitch black with ash falling for the rest of the day and night.
    I still have a flask full of ash I scraped off my car, which I'd unfortunately left the window cracked open on...what a mess! The second photo is of the ash swirling around the next day...looked like snow...boy there were some great End of the World parties the rest of that week!
    3rd photo was 2 years later when I drove up there after the road to Johnston Ridge first opened up. You can see a bit of what was left of Spirit Lake there...Harry Truman was buried in the avalanche of rock and debris there...
    https://www.sciencehistory.org/disti...us-the-volcano


    1980-06-33 - Mt St Helens ash cloud over Pullman.jpg
    1980-06-35 - Ash swirls over WSU, May 19, 1980.jpg
    1982-08-19 - Mt St Helens and Spirit Lake.jpg

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  23. #1692

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    Default Re: Tsunami's Account Talk

    THX for the Pix!! Never got the vanity-plates, if so I shoulda used same as yours, though I enjoyed WAZZU so much I did the 5-yr plan & graduated '83 (BSME, Minor in Mil. Sci.).
    I don't have any Pix of that event in Pullman, so I sure appreciate & will save yours. Was "doing homework" in my Nez-Pierce apartment that sunny Sunday, window was Northward & so didn't see it, didn't have TV/radio on; a girlfriend called me saying the Mtn. blew & I thought she was joking - she said look out West. I did and saw the Black-eyebrow on horizon about 10am or so. I recall day/night line directly overhead, & an hour or so later, your photo of tiny sun arch in East and blackness everywhere else about an hour after that. I drove to work at the "Rotunda" for dinner shift, on way home ash was starting to cause problems. Next day, exactly like your photo; oh, and yes - excuse to Pahtay. I still have my little bowl of that ash in a box upstairs somewhere too. Yes, the Mt. St. Helens Nat'l Park/Monument is breath-taking. --Thanks again!


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Tsunami's Account Talk
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